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Tim_Tex
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Jacoby
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05 Jun 2012, 11:30 pm

It's looking like it will be by a greater margin or at the very least very close to the same margin that Walker won by in 2010 vs Tom Barrett with a high turnout. The electorate has spoken, the turnout was amazing and this is how democracy works. A lot is being made about the money in the race but I don't buy that as a determining factor, the reason money didn't pour in for Tom Barrett was for numerous reasons. One, there was a democratic primary where the union's chosen candidate Kathleen Falk lost to the more moderate Tom Barrett. Falk actually raised more money than Barrett in the primary, I believe more than $5 million. The other reason the money was so low for Barrett was also simply because national democrats just didn't think he was going to win. In no poll in this campaign season has Barrett ever led Walker and Walker lead comfortably in almost every poll at 50% and above. If the race was actually more competitive, I believe the money spent would of been a lot closer.

One of the weird things about this election night was how far off exit polling was from the real results. They were projecting it to be a close race and it was a blowout.



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05 Jun 2012, 11:36 pm

i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.



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06 Jun 2012, 12:10 am

auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


I don't think it is good for Obama obviously but I don't think it spells doom for him either. Obama did win Wisconsin by 14% but the state has been trending purple for a long time now. 2008 was kind of an anomaly, in 2000 and 2004 the presidential race in Wisconsin was one of the closest in the whole country. I think 2012 will be very similar to 2000 and 2004. Obama had a significant lead over Romney in tonight's exit polling but you can't really take those numbers seriously by how off the exit poll was on the gubernatorial race.

It will be interesting to see the long term impact of this election in the state since the union power structure has been severely weakened. It appears that the all the GOP state senators up for recall this election have retain their seats and thus will still control the Wisconsin State Senate. The next ambitious legislative move that Walker will pursue is expected to try making Wisconsin a 'right to work state' which will further weaken unions in the state.



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06 Jun 2012, 2:56 am

auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.

Obama has a ton of hurdles to jump that are unrelated to Walker as well, but it's too early to start making predictions about the outcome other than it will probably be close.


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WorldsEdge
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06 Jun 2012, 7:26 am

auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


I don't. First, people generally seem to like him, and Romney comes across as almost robotic. And in this day and age, that is huge. Second, there's a long history of people voting one way whenever a specific initiative comes up, but then going ahead and voting for a candidate who would have opposed the initiative. The most recent example of this is the African-American vote regarding Prop 8 in California. 90%+ of the African-American vote went to Obama, and 80%+ of African-Americans voted to overturn gay marriage. It is even possible that the heavier than usual African-American turnout in California for Obama is actually what got the measure passed, which, if not ironic, is certainly a curiosity.

Second, as paleoconservative Pat Buchanan keeps pointing out, it is now just about impossible for a Republican presidential nominee to carry any of the following states: California (55 electoral votes), New York(31), or Illinois(21). Assuming these 2008 numbers don't shift around too much, ANY Democratic nominee is 40% of the way to the 270 electoral votes needed, without even lifting a finger or spending a dime. And given that Obama's already the incumbent, I can't see Romney having prayer in any of them.

The only "big" state the Republicans can presently rely upon is Texas (34 electoral votes), and given the drastic demographic shift underway there from white to Hispanic, in all probability the state goes to "battleground" status in the very near future, and possibly becomes a pure blue state at some point.

I'm honestly a bit confused about Florida. (21 electoral votes). I'm guessing it is in "purple" or "battleground" or whatever status, but the Repubs MUST win it, whereas the Dems could lose there and still re-elect Obama . Perhaps not by the margin of 2008, but by more than enough.

Third, Walker must have a coterie of very, very sharp advisers. They saw what happened in Ohio in 2011 (see: Ohio Turns Back a Law Limiting Unions’ Rights (link)) and practiced what I'd say was an extraordinary example of "divide and conquer." The national press seemed to ignore this, but there were two groups where Walker left collective bargaining untouched: Police and Fire unions. So, nobody could claim Walker was doing anything to undermine public safety on those fronts, both groups are far more popular with the general population than, say, the Department of Taxation or some obscure sub-department like whoever grants and regulates corporate charters, etc. And in Ohio neither Police nor Fire were exempted, which fact by itself pushed a great many who would normally vote Republican to vote to overturn the law. Walker had no worries on that score.


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06 Jun 2012, 10:52 am

Look for Walker's name to be enshrined in stone next to Ronald Reagan. Maybe the Koch brothers will sponsor a statue to Walker in Madison.



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06 Jun 2012, 11:05 am

auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


Isn't it though. This time that incompetent will not get a free ride into the Whitehouse.

The votes in 2008 were not FOR Obama but mostly AGAINST Bush and his buddies.

ruveyn



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06 Jun 2012, 11:22 pm

WorldsEdge wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


I don't. First, people generally seem to like him, and Romney comes across as almost robotic. And in this day and age, that is huge. Second, there's a long history of people voting one way whenever a specific initiative comes up, but then going ahead and voting for a candidate who would have opposed the initiative. The most recent example of this is the African-American vote regarding Prop 8 in California. 90%+ of the African-American vote went to Obama, and 80%+ of African-Americans voted to overturn gay marriage. It is even possible that the heavier than usual African-American turnout in California for Obama is actually what got the measure passed, which, if not ironic, is certainly a curiosity.

Second, as paleoconservative Pat Buchanan keeps pointing out, it is now just about impossible for a Republican presidential nominee to carry any of the following states: California (55 electoral votes), New York(31), or Illinois(21). Assuming these 2008 numbers don't shift around too much, ANY Democratic nominee is 40% of the way to the 270 electoral votes needed, without even lifting a finger or spending a dime. And given that Obama's already the incumbent, I can't see Romney having prayer in any of them.

The only "big" state the Republicans can presently rely upon is Texas (34 electoral votes), and given the drastic demographic shift underway there from white to Hispanic, in all probability the state goes to "battleground" status in the very near future, and possibly becomes a pure blue state at some point.

I'm honestly a bit confused about Florida. (21 electoral votes). I'm guessing it is in "purple" or "battleground" or whatever status, but the Repubs MUST win it, whereas the Dems could lose there and still re-elect Obama . Perhaps not by the margin of 2008, but by more than enough.

Third, Walker must have a coterie of very, very sharp advisers. They saw what happened in Ohio in 2011 (see: Ohio Turns Back a Law Limiting Unions’ Rights (link)) and practiced what I'd say was an extraordinary example of "divide and conquer." The national press seemed to ignore this, but there were two groups where Walker left collective bargaining untouched: Police and Fire unions. So, nobody could claim Walker was doing anything to undermine public safety on those fronts, both groups are far more popular with the general population than, say, the Department of Taxation or some obscure sub-department like whoever grants and regulates corporate charters, etc. And in Ohio neither Police nor Fire were exempted, which fact by itself pushed a great many who would normally vote Republican to vote to overturn the law. Walker had no worries on that score.


First, the dude on your avatar is a distant cousin of mine. I'm descended from Baldwin IV's grandfather, Fulk V, King of Jerusalem and Count of Anjou.

Second, concerning Obama - no, not everyone likes him - starting with military people. I have been on two presidential protection details and most of us who have had that duty agree that he has an ego problem that he really needs serious help on. The guy is a narcisist. I've met him. I know. And he has done much to harm veterans not only in the war effort but with benefit cuts as well - which is money being transfered to Obama care. But yes, as I was trained to be a tax professional, I follow the dollars. The guy is, in my view a posterior orafice. I also know a lot of people in Wisconsin (my home state) who voted for him and then wound up becoming unemployed because of his economic policies. They will be voting for Romney this year. They want results. As will military people - and in this political climate it's a really bad idea to piss off the military for any reason. Romney is high with small businessmen who wind up employing most fo the general populace. Don't underestimate him. No, he's not Santorum, who is my preference, but anyone is better than Obama.

Third, Buchanan needs to start thinking about what he says before he says it. The guy has been wrong on a number of issues and I'm glad he's not an officer or a lot of people would have been killed had he been in command of any unit. This comes from an officer who has seen action 29 times and has not lost a single man.

Fourth, what you are not taking into account concerning Walker is that the unions just plain pissed off too many taxpayers. They get plain pissed off when some special interest group, which public employee unions are, strong-arm their way into the state, storm our capitol building like the Nazi thugs they are, and nullify our votes over sour grapes. The reason the unions did this is because they are a bunch of sheeple led by a greedy union boss named Richard Trumpka - who has the common sense of a house plant - who was upset because now his paycheck affords him three less BMW's (which are non-union vehicles) and he couldn't replace his Lamborgini Countach with a newer model. The simple fact is that we Wisconsinites are fed up with being overtaxed and underserved by our state government. And we're doing something about it! We are plain pissed off - and Obama and his Alinskyite minions and union backers better start taking note of it! This is why we elected Walker in the first place. And he is doing a great job! He wiped out a $3.6 Billion deficit and is punishing state employees for breaking the law. And now I'll set the record straight about John Doe, and this is on the record: John Doe was initiated by Walker himself and the Milwaukee County DA. The DA has stated time and time again that Walker is the complainant and not the target of the investigation. He has stated time and time again that Walker did the right thing in making the complaint - and this DA is a democrat.

Now, thanks to Barack Obama and his union-paid minions, Walker is now future presidential material.

Longshanks


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06 Jun 2012, 11:28 pm

ruveyn wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


Isn't it though. This time that incompetent will not get a free ride into the Whitehouse.

The votes in 2008 were not FOR Obama but mostly AGAINST Bush and his buddies.

ruveyn


Let's not count our chickens until they're hatched. Ohblahblah is doing everything he can to destroy voter ID laws and get illegals to vote. This is going to be a tough one to get that turkey out of the White House.

Longshanks


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06 Jun 2012, 11:57 pm

Longshanks wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


Isn't it though. This time that incompetent will not get a free ride into the Whitehouse.

The votes in 2008 were not FOR Obama but mostly AGAINST Bush and his buddies.

ruveyn


Let's not count our chickens until they're hatched. Ohblahblah is doing everything he can to destroy voter ID laws and get illegals to vote. This is going to be a tough one to get that turkey out of the White House.

Longshanks


Funny how almost all those so called "illegals" seem to include black Americans and other Americans of minority races, the elderly, and the poor in general.
You sure this isn't just a hard hearted means of disenfranchising voters who are more likely to vote Democrat?

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer



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07 Jun 2012, 12:23 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
Longshanks wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


Isn't it though. This time that incompetent will not get a free ride into the Whitehouse.

The votes in 2008 were not FOR Obama but mostly AGAINST Bush and his buddies.

ruveyn


Let's not count our chickens until they're hatched. Ohblahblah is doing everything he can to destroy voter ID laws and get illegals to vote. This is going to be a tough one to get that turkey out of the White House.

Longshanks


Funny how almost all those so called "illegals" seem to include black Americans and other Americans of minority races, the elderly, and the poor in general.
You sure this isn't just a hard hearted means of disenfranchising voters who are more likely to vote Democrat?

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


Kraichgauer, you're so monotonous! It really requires no effort at all for me to obliterate your credibility. Okay. I'll be more than happy to do that again. Let's see: Even the liberal press - which you espouse - defines illegals as those persons living or crossing the border without the benefit of the appropriate legal steps necessary and required by the laws of the United States irrespective of religion, age, creed, color, pocketbook or ethnicity. This means that the above factors that you have mentioned are irrelevant in the eyes fo the law. Having been in law school, I know that - because the liberal law professors that teach there teach that. That means that what you have said supra is totally irrelvent in the eyes of the law - which, by the way, I don't make. Congress makes those. The US Constitution, for good reasons including national security - something I might add, that you have no conception of - forbids illegal aliens from having the right to vote. It is people like you, with the above attitude, who make it extremely problematic for servicemen like myself, to defend you from people who would rather kill you.

Now, you have spoken of disenfranchisement. Let us look at this in depth: Are you aware of how many cases there have been of illegal aliens committing crimes - just google it and you'll see for yourself, that is if you have the courage to allow yourself to remove your rose-collored glasses - that have flooded our various courts. I'm speaking of course of drunk-driver induced deaths, murders, drug-smuggling - and oh yes, let us not forget the ten terrorists that US troops intercepted at the border carrying brief case nukes right after 9/11 - that you are advocating for. Did it ever dawn on you that some of the people who have indeed suffered at the hands of these criminals were also democrats - who are now permanently disenfranchised because they are now dead?

Sir, I say this with the utmost respect: Get real! And don't waste my time with your petty fits about discrimination. You continue to drink the very kool-aid that is so detrimental to your cognative health and it really is unbecoming. It's also very frustrating for those people I serve with - because it is people like you who are part of the problem, endangering our country by weakening it with such utter nonsensical falacy.

Longahanks


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07 Jun 2012, 12:41 am

Longshanks wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Longshanks wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
i can't help but feel that this is a bad omen for obama.


Isn't it though. This time that incompetent will not get a free ride into the Whitehouse.

The votes in 2008 were not FOR Obama but mostly AGAINST Bush and his buddies.

ruveyn


Let's not count our chickens until they're hatched. Ohblahblah is doing everything he can to destroy voter ID laws and get illegals to vote. This is going to be a tough one to get that turkey out of the White House.

Longshanks


Funny how almost all those so called "illegals" seem to include black Americans and other Americans of minority races, the elderly, and the poor in general.
You sure this isn't just a hard hearted means of disenfranchising voters who are more likely to vote Democrat?

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


Kraichgauer, you're so monotonous! It really requires no effort at all for me to obliterate your credibility. Okay. I'll be more than happy to do that again. Let's see: Even the liberal press - which you espouse - defines illegals as those persons living or crossing the border without the benefit of the appropriate legal steps necessary and required by the laws of the United States irrespective of religion, age, creed, color, pocketbook or ethnicity. This means that the above factors that you have mentioned are irrelevant in the eyes fo the law. Having been in law school, I know that - because the liberal law professors that teach there teach that. That means that what you have said supra is totally irrelvent in the eyes of the law - which, by the way, I don't make. Congress makes those. The US Constitution, for good reasons including national security - something I might add, that you have no conception of - forbids illegal aliens from having the right to vote. It is people like you, with the above attitude, who make it extremely problematic for servicemen like myself, to defend you from people who would rather kill you.

Now, you have spoken of disenfranchisement. Let us look at this in depth: Are you aware of how many cases there have been of illegal aliens committing crimes - just google it and you'll see for yourself, that is if you have the courage to allow yourself to remove your rose-collored glasses - that have flooded our various courts. I'm speaking of course of drunk-driver induced deaths, murders, drug-smuggling - and oh yes, let us not forget the ten terrorists that US troops intercepted at the border carrying brief case nukes right after 9/11 - that you are advocating for. Did it ever dawn on you that some of the people who have indeed suffered at the hands of these criminals were also democrats - who are now permanently disenfranchised because they are now dead?

Sir, I say this with the utmost respect: Get real! And don't waste my time with your petty fits about discrimination. You continue to drink the very kool-aid that is so detrimental to your cognative health and it really is unbecoming. It's also very frustrating for those people I serve with - because it is people like you who are part of the problem, endangering our country by weakening it with such utter nonsensical falacy.

Longahanks


As a matter of fact, I'm not talking about real illegals, but about honest for goodness American citizens who have seen their voting rights taken away on the pretext of voter fraud.
This would include a Brooklyn born WWII veteran who had moved to Florida - then was informed that he could not vote any longer because of the accusation that he was foreign born. He has a birth certificate showing that HE WAS BORN IN BROOKLYN! In fact, the Justice department has had to step in to stop the state of Florida from purging their voters roles so close to an election. And no, these people aren't illegal immigrants, but are innocent victims of a vindictive means of disenfranchising minority, young, handicapped, and elderly voters who might make Florida go blue.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer



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07 Jun 2012, 9:44 am

Longshanks wrote:
Sir, I say this with the utmost respect: Get real! And don't waste my time with your petty fits about discrimination. You continue to drink the very kool-aid that is so detrimental to your cognative health and it really is unbecoming. It's also very frustrating for those people I serve with - because it is people like you who are part of the problem, endangering our country by weakening it with such utter nonsensical falacy.

Have you not considered that you are the one drinking the damn kool-aid? Your ideology is pure poison.



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07 Jun 2012, 10:17 am

Longshanks wrote:
Second, concerning Obama - no, not everyone likes him - starting with military people. I have been on two presidential protection details and most of us who have had that duty agree that he has an ego problem that he really needs serious help on. The guy is a narcisist. I've met him. I know. And he has done much to harm veterans not only in the war effort but with benefit cuts as well - which is money being transfered to Obama care. But yes, as I was trained to be a tax professional, I follow the dollars. The guy is, in my view a posterior orafice. I also know a lot of people in Wisconsin (my home state) who voted for him and then wound up becoming unemployed because of his economic policies. They will be voting for Romney this year. They want results. As will military people - and in this political climate it's a really bad idea to piss off the military for any reason. Romney is high with small businessmen who wind up employing most fo the general populace. Don't underestimate him. No, he's not Santorum, who is my preference, but anyone is better than Obama.


Is the bolded part some kind of threat? Talk about arrogance and posterior orafices, look at yourself. I hate to inform you but Republicans do not care about veterans. They do not care about you. They are paid clowns serving the interests of a cabal of billionaires.



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07 Jun 2012, 10:32 am

marshall wrote:
Longshanks wrote:
Second, concerning Obama - no, not everyone likes him - starting with military people. I have been on two presidential protection details and most of us who have had that duty agree that he has an ego problem that he really needs serious help on. The guy is a narcisist. I've met him. I know. And he has done much to harm veterans not only in the war effort but with benefit cuts as well - which is money being transfered to Obama care. But yes, as I was trained to be a tax professional, I follow the dollars. The guy is, in my view a posterior orafice. I also know a lot of people in Wisconsin (my home state) who voted for him and then wound up becoming unemployed because of his economic policies. They will be voting for Romney this year. They want results. As will military people - and in this political climate it's a really bad idea to piss off the military for any reason. Romney is high with small businessmen who wind up employing most fo the general populace. Don't underestimate him. No, he's not Santorum, who is my preference, but anyone is better than Obama.


Is the bolded part some kind of threat? Talk about arrogance and posterior orafices, look at yourself. I hate to inform you but Republicans do not care about veterans. They do not care about you. They are paid clowns serving the interests of a cabal of billionaires.


One of the government agencies required to keep tabs on political donations is the IRS. As an IRS enrolled agent, I can tell you that more of your billionaires support the democrats than the republicans. And republicans do care for us veterans, of which you very obviously aren't one of. And there is no threat inplied or otherwise in my thread - however, military families are becoming more political after being continually screwed with by your democratic lackeys.

Longshanks


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