How many of the world's population is autistic?

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TLPG
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18 Jan 2008, 4:09 pm

Age1600 wrote:
I really dont know, i wasn't born here, i was born in columbia, south america, but i know that a lot of children born in jersey have a higher rate of becoming autistic, and one of the big factors i think is the environment. I dont know i hear a lot of rumors about it. Its a very good question, but I seriously dont know the true answer, sorry.


I have a better idea.

New Jersey is more tolerant of the Spectrum in general than Alabama. So the Spectrum population gravitates there. In other words, if you are on the Spectrum and live in Alabama - get the heck out of there because you won't be looked after properly!

I don't know what New Jersey is doing right, and if I'm right it should be looked into.

As an enviromental factor (as in contributions to the atmosphere) industrialised v non-industrialised is an irrelevant argument. I agree with what Aspie Dave has said - there are other factors. For example apparently in Korea Aspies would be considered almost NT because it is natural for them to keep to themselves. That was mentioned during the carry on over Cho Seung-Hui possible being on the Spectrum (something we'll never know, and because of that Korean social trait I think he wasn't).

Not forgetting that a lot of countries don't have the expertise to properly interpret the DSM-IV (third world countries) so who knows?

And don't forget - those figures are US only. Worldwide we have no real idea. Using the New Jersey/Alabama analogy, it's just possible that those on the Spectrum from third world countries may have gravitated to the US - therefore fudging the worldwide figures.

Personally I'd be gravitating to Australia - but then I'm biased! :)



Age1600
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18 Jan 2008, 4:11 pm

TLPG wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
I really dont know, i wasn't born here, i was born in columbia, south america, but i know that a lot of children born in jersey have a higher rate of becoming autistic, and one of the big factors i think is the environment. I dont know i hear a lot of rumors about it. Its a very good question, but I seriously dont know the true answer, sorry.


I have a better idea.

New Jersey is more tolerant of the Spectrum in general than Alabama. So the Spectrum population gravitates there. In other words, if you are on the Spectrum and live in Alabama - get the heck out of there because you won't be looked after properly!

I don't know what New Jersey is doing right, and if I'm right it should be looked into.

As an enviromental factor (as in contributions to the atmosphere) industrialised v non-industrialised is an irrelevant argument. I agree with what Aspie Dave has said - there are other factors. For example apparently in Korea Aspies would be considered almost NT because it is natural for them to keep to themselves. That was mentioned during the carry on over Cho Seung-Hui possible being on the Spectrum (something we'll never know, and because of that Korean social trait I think he wasn't).

Not forgetting that a lot of countries don't have the expertise to properly interpret the DSM-IV (third world countries) so who knows?

And don't forget - those figures are US only. Worldwide we have no real idea. Using the New Jersey/Alabama analogy, it's just possible that those on the Spectrum from third world countries may have gravitated to the US - therefore fudging the worldwide figures.

Personally I'd be gravitating to Australia - but then I'm biased! :)


I like jersey, only because their doing so much to help out, even the governor signed a petition to allowed even ppl with aspergers rights or something like that haha, can't say word for word. There is sooo much help here in jersey since there are so many ASDs. And right now were the only state in america with the lowest gas prices lol, and we don't even have to get out to pump it lol.


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zendell
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18 Jan 2008, 4:17 pm

Age1600 wrote:
I like jersey, only because their doing so much to help out, even the governor signed a petition to allowed even ppl with aspergers rights or something like that haha, can't say word for word. There is sooo much help here in jersey since there are so many ASDs. And right now were the only state in america with the lowest gas prices lol, and we don't even have to get out to pump it lol.


I know this is OT but are you supposed to tip the person who pumps your gas? I'm in PA and go to the Jersey shore. I tipped the gas pumper because it seemed like I was supposed to but I wasn't sure if that is expected.



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18 Jan 2008, 4:20 pm

TLPG wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
I really dont know, i wasn't born here, i was born in columbia, south america, but i know that a lot of children born in jersey have a higher rate of becoming autistic, and one of the big factors i think is the environment. I dont know i hear a lot of rumors about it. Its a very good question, but I seriously dont know the true answer, sorry.


I have a better idea.

New Jersey is more tolerant of the Spectrum in general than Alabama. So the Spectrum population gravitates there. In other words, if you are on the Spectrum and live in Alabama - get the heck out of there because you won't be looked after properly!


I'm sure ASDs are diagnosed more often in New Jersey but do you really think that fully explains it? It would mean that about 70% of autistics in Alabama go undiagnosed.



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18 Jan 2008, 4:20 pm

zendell wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
I like jersey, only because their doing so much to help out, even the governor signed a petition to allowed even ppl with aspergers rights or something like that haha, can't say word for word. There is sooo much help here in jersey since there are so many ASDs. And right now were the only state in america with the lowest gas prices lol, and we don't even have to get out to pump it lol.


I know this is OT but are you supposed to tip the person who pumps your gas? I'm in PA and go to the Jersey shore. I tipped the gas pumper because it seemed like I was supposed to but I wasn't sure if that is expected.


I never heard of that, maybe if your a local its different, but even my summer neighbors who come down during the summer don't tip, thats weird actually sorry if i offended u, i never heard that before hmmm. They get paid real good to pump gas too, the gas attendants by me get 10+ per hour. Where in the jersey shore do you go?


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zendell
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18 Jan 2008, 4:23 pm

Age1600 wrote:
zendell wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
I like jersey, only because their doing so much to help out, even the governor signed a petition to allowed even ppl with aspergers rights or something like that haha, can't say word for word. There is sooo much help here in jersey since there are so many ASDs. And right now were the only state in america with the lowest gas prices lol, and we don't even have to get out to pump it lol.


I know this is OT but are you supposed to tip the person who pumps your gas? I'm in PA and go to the Jersey shore. I tipped the gas pumper because it seemed like I was supposed to but I wasn't sure if that is expected.


I never heard of that, maybe if your a local its different, but even my summer neighbors who come down during the summer don't tip, thats weird actually sorry if i offended u, i never heard that before hmmm. They get paid real good to pump gas too, the gas attendants by me get 10+ per hour. Where in the jersey shore do you go?


It was on the turnpike on the way to the shore. The person pumped my gas and then washed my windows. He didn't ask for a tip. I just felt like he was expecting one and gave him one because I didn't know what to do.



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18 Jan 2008, 4:24 pm

zendell wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
zendell wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
I like jersey, only because their doing so much to help out, even the governor signed a petition to allowed even ppl with aspergers rights or something like that haha, can't say word for word. There is sooo much help here in jersey since there are so many ASDs. And right now were the only state in america with the lowest gas prices lol, and we don't even have to get out to pump it lol.


I know this is OT but are you supposed to tip the person who pumps your gas? I'm in PA and go to the Jersey shore. I tipped the gas pumper because it seemed like I was supposed to but I wasn't sure if that is expected.


I never heard of that, maybe if your a local its different, but even my summer neighbors who come down during the summer don't tip, thats weird actually sorry if i offended u, i never heard that before hmmm. They get paid real good to pump gas too, the gas attendants by me get 10+ per hour. Where in the jersey shore do you go?


It was on the turnpike on the way to the shore. The person pumped my gas and then washed my windows. He didn't ask for a tip. I just felt like he was expecting one and gave him one because I didn't know what to do.


Nah, they dont need a tip, their suppose to wash the windows and all.


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18 Jan 2008, 5:01 pm

earthmonkey wrote:
Also, re the original question, 1/100 is 1%, and the figures usually given are about 1/150, 1/166, somewhere in this neighborhood. 1/150 is (*gets out calculator*) about 0.67% of the population. The exact figures don't really matter anyway, especially, as noted, that many are not diagnosed for various reasons.


I seriously didn't notice, but of course you're right! It's 1% (or less)!



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18 Jan 2008, 6:35 pm

zendell..... put some "thinktime" in here.... Alabama has a MUCH larger proportion of poor people than a relatively prosperous state such as New Jersey, or Massachusetts. Poor people TEND not to have health care coverage OTHER than what the state will provide at low or no cost. OFTEN that does not include such things as diagnosis for things like Asperger's, because most people with HFA and Asperger's, or PDD-NOS can still function, just not necessarily WELL. Yes a nonverbal autistic would probably be diagnosed... IF the parent took the child to a clinic, which in many cases won't happen. I've lived in the deep South, poor people there often don't trust doctors or the government for good reason, they've been screwed over too many times.

As far as the difference between industrialized and nonindustrialized countries it would depend on where you were. I would imagine very few people in Rwanda, or Kenya for example, would be terribly concerned that their child might have a few odd habits. They're MORE concerned with not starving to death or being hacked up with machetes by a gang from a rival group. Relatively speaking, being concerned their child is a bit odd wouldn't be a high priority.

Most of the people I've kept in touch with from my past end up having kids with Asperger's.... because they did, but the parent was never diagnosed. I went to grade school in the early '60's. There was a special ed class. There were a few kids with down's syndrome and maybe an autistic.... ALL were presumed to be "ret*d", yes that was the accepted word at the time, and ALL were basically being taught to walk in a line, tie their shoes and follow SIMPLE directions so they could be put to work somewhere cleaning tables or washing dishes IF THEY WERE LUCKY. I knew I was different than most of the kids in my class. They knew it too. They thought (and so did I) that it was because I was in the group of 4-5 classified as gifted. It was that way in every school I was in... Special ed kids were "ret*d" and everybody else were clumped together. If a kid had a behavior problem somebody beat him... Not kidding... I sat in a class horrified and watched a teacher beat a smartassed kid bloody in 5th grade. He took a letter off his desk, put it in the kid's back pocket and broke a broom handle over the kid's butt hitting him and said "That's from the school board telling me I can't hit you. I don't care, cause I got another letter on my desk telling me to report to basic training and they're sending me to Viet Nam."

It was a different world. I prefer this one.


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18 Jan 2008, 8:19 pm

AspieDave wrote:
zendell..... put some "thinktime" in here.... Alabama has a MUCH larger proportion of poor people than a relatively prosperous state such as New Jersey, or Massachusetts. Poor people TEND not to have health care coverage OTHER than what the state will provide at low or no cost. OFTEN that does not include such things as diagnosis for things like Asperger's, because most people with HFA and Asperger's, or PDD-NOS can still function, just not necessarily WELL. Yes a nonverbal autistic would probably be diagnosed... IF the parent took the child to a clinic, which in many cases won't happen. I've lived in the deep South, poor people there often don't trust doctors or the government for good reason, they've been screwed over too many times.


I realized ASDs are probably diagnosed more often in NJ and less often in Alabama but I don't think that explains a prevalence over 3x higher. That would mean about 70% with ASDs in Alabama are undiagnosed. I did go back and found the full study (I only saw the summary before) and noticed that they couldn't get educational records in Alabama so they relied on health records only. In NJ and most other states they had both. They compared prevalence rates based on the source of records which explains some, but no all, of the differences. If I take that into account plus what you mentioned there may be little or no difference in prevalence for Alabama although it is still much higher in New Jersey compared to several other states. ASDs prevalence in NJ ends up being 59% higher than average.

Here's a link to a good chart in the study with autism prevalence in the 14 states studied taking into account data sources:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtm ... 2.htm#fig1



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18 Jan 2008, 8:30 pm

Another datum... I should have mentioned it but I thought it self evident. New Jersey, has far more DOCTORS including psychiatrists than a rural poor state like Alabama, or Mississippi, etc. Very few psychiatrists are going to go through that much training and go to Alabama to practice.... The more doctors the more diagnosis.... New Jersey has also had a long history of industrialization, particularly chemical plants. A large number of people have moved there to work in those plants.. such as chemical engineers. Engineering is a profession that tends to attract people with certain traits... such as ASD. We tend to make good engineers. Those people have children, who then get diagnosed with ASD..... People move OUT of poor states (like Alabama), if they can possibly manage it at all. Such as we're seeing in Michigan right now because the industry they depended on for employment imploded and there aren't any jobs for them. People move INTO states like New Jersey where they can get a factory job and afford to feed their kids.... We have a very mobile population, people move where they can make a living, and there are "larger numbers there" for a time.... it balances out. Why are California's numbers so high??? People MOVE to California, they like it there.... no conspiracy, no black helicopters, no government men in black erasing medical files...


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18 Jan 2008, 8:44 pm

I saw a study online when I was putting together my last ASD powerpoint that said 1 in 150 people are on the spectrum. It also said that for boys, those numbers are actually more like 1 in 84.


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zendell
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18 Jan 2008, 8:51 pm

AspieDave wrote:
Another datum... I should have mentioned it but I thought it self evident. New Jersey, has far more DOCTORS including psychiatrists than a rural poor state like Alabama, or Mississippi, etc. Very few psychiatrists are going to go through that much training and go to Alabama to practice.... The more doctors the more diagnosis.... New Jersey has also had a long history of industrialization, particularly chemical plants. A large number of people have moved there to work in those plants.. such as chemical engineers. Engineering is a profession that tends to attract people with certain traits... such as ASD. We tend to make good engineers. Those people have children, who then get diagnosed with ASD..... People move OUT of poor states (like Alabama), if they can possibly manage it at all. Such as we're seeing in Michigan right now because the industry they depended on for employment imploded and there aren't any jobs for them. People move INTO states like New Jersey where they can get a factory job and afford to feed their kids.... We have a very mobile population, people move where they can make a living, and there are "larger numbers there" for a time.... it balances out. Why are California's numbers so high??? People MOVE to California, they like it there.... no conspiracy, no black helicopters, no government men in black erasing medical files...


Thats a good point. More engineers with autistic traits would definitely lead to more autistic children.

"no conspiracy, no black helicopters, no government men in black erasing medical files" :lol: Are you calling me a conspiracy nut? I relied on a government study, went back to get the full study results, noticed less data sources in Alabama and changed my view on ASD prevalence there, and then took into account factors you mentioned. I tend to be open minded and ask alot of questions. It's cause I'm curious and want to know what's going on. One thing I will never do is blindly support a conspiracy theory.



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18 Jan 2008, 8:57 pm

More stats on ASDs

% with IQ below 70 - 45%

males - 1 in 87
females - 1 in 370

If less people with ASDs are going undiagnosed in NJ, then the actual statistics may be closer to:

males in NJ - 1 in 60
females in NJ - 1 in 250



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18 Jan 2008, 9:00 pm

zendell wrote:
The CDC study looked at ASDs which includes "autistic disorder, pervasive developmental disorder - not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS, including atypical autism), and Asperger syndrome."

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel ... 070208.htm


That site contains some fairly interesting statistics based on the year and location. However, all of the information refers to "ASDs"--it is never broken down by specific diagnosis. I wonder if these researchers even collected data on the different types of ASDs and their rates of prevalence.

To me, the data is essentially irrelevant without information about the specific diagnostic categories. I would also like to see information on how the children were diagnosed. For example, did they all attend schools that screen for ASDs? At what age were they diagnosed? And was the diagnosis made by a private doctor, a doctor employed by the school, or a doctor affiliated with some other institution (such as a non-profit that promotes ASD screenings)?



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18 Jan 2008, 9:05 pm

Good point. I understood also that one state only represented medical diagnosis whereas the other was taken from both medical and school data. In Michigan, in order to have a child classed as Autism Impaired you must go through the SCHOOL process. A diagnosis from a doctor is not sufficient. The schools may be classing some children as ASD based upon their longer timeframe of observation. Most doctors take a history and observe the child for only a short period.

AI or Autism Impaired would be ANY ASD.


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