World Population Crash expected prior to 2100.

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Warsie
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30 Dec 2010, 12:46 am

Dantac wrote:
It seems that, after all, the Amish will get the last laugh. ;)


No, the Mormons would due to their more miltaristic mentality and larger numbers- e.g. Republic of Desert 2.0 post-balkanization of the USA.

Is's funny as an author who wrote some oil peak novels said something like that about how "Whatever you think about the religious belief of the amish or mormons, they'll be better in line for surviving the peak"


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phil777
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30 Dec 2010, 1:52 am

I'd be hard-pressed to think that oil would factor in human decline... Lack of food and disease would be a more likely cause. Still, some interesting points brought forward here...



Jacoby
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30 Dec 2010, 2:02 am

we'll likely find an alternative energy source before the oil actually runs out. maybe i'm just being optimistic?



Sand
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30 Dec 2010, 5:09 am

[quote="phil777"]I'd be hard-pressed to think that oil would factor in human decline... Lack of food and disease would be a more likely cause. Still, some interesting points brought forward here...[/quote

Oil is the base material for much fertilizer and other fundamental goods such as plastics.



visagrunt
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30 Dec 2010, 1:49 pm

To my way of thinking, oil represents a failure to adhere to a basic principle of economics: innovation and diversity create growth.

At root, petroleum is simply one mechanism for storing energy created by the sun, from which we have developed technologies to release that energy. The same is true of any other type of energy generation that we engage in (although admittedly, nuclear power is the release of energy created by other stars, rather than our own).

Food, too, is the transfer of solar energy to organic molecules, which is later released in biochemical processes in our cells.

Now, the sun is a finite energy source, but for all present intents and purposes we can treat it as a constant, and it is bombarding us, daily, with a fresh supply of energy. As our creativity and ingenuity advance, so too does our ability to harness and use that energy.

I am not so much of a pollyanna that I refuse to see cyclicality in human population--but neither am I a doomsayer. As the economics of petroleum changes, so too will the net present value of investment in new energy technology, new polymer science, and new agricultural science.


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YupItsTrue
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09 Aug 2012, 8:05 pm

Oil supply relative to demand wouldn't be such a big problem if humanity lived in a perfect socialistic society, one in which politics and economics came secondary to the needs of the masses. Instead, there is a system where this man-made concept of money will leave millions upon millions unable to access food not because there is a shortage so much as they aren't employed and can't afford it.

The concept of the greenback and even the gold standard is that the shiny metals represent future work and goods and services. what happens once there are less and less economically accessable resources to back that money up (timber, ores, etc)? Even renewable resources like fisheries and forests can be rendered valueless if the system that sustains them is damaged too much (overfishing, ocean pollution and warming causing plankton death, soil erosion and nutrient depletion).

Will people be given food for free? Will our political systems be able to handle disturbances in currency and inflation and act altruistically in times of great need?

The other things that oil does for us are more likely going to cause issue than simply its fuel value. Where would we be without chemicals, plastics, fertilizers. A rise in demand (caused by increased standard of living and population growth) will cause a rise in price. There is a rate issue here, where oil can only be extracted, transported, and refined so quickly. If the rate of consumption starts to outpace the rate of delivery, then a price spike will occur. I price increase in oil causes systematic cost of living increases for everyone and everything. Which will likely lead to massive debt, both in terms of government and individual. debt can lead to an imaginary crisis, which we've seen around the world just these past 2 years. Look at the austerity programs. People have committed suicide because of the situation.

More so than an oil supply problem, we should be worried about the natural disasters, the droughts, the floods, the earthquakes, the crop diseases, etc. whose impact are magnified by increased population density.

Climate should be our chief concern. Regardless of what we do, a few bad years in a row is all it might take to bring modern civilization to its knees. We can't force rain to fall, nor can we make it stop falling. we are at the mercy of Mother Nature and Father Sky.

Assuming the best and preparing for nothing is a recipe for disaster



naturalplastic
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09 Aug 2012, 8:40 pm

phil777 wrote:
I'd be hard-pressed to think that oil would factor in human decline... Lack of food and disease would be a more likely cause. Still, some interesting points brought forward here...


Food depends on modern agribusiness.

Modern agribusiness depends on machinery and fertilizers.

Machinery and fertilizers depend on... oil!

They are one and the same.



LennytheWicked
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09 Aug 2012, 9:16 pm

Typically when that kind of thing happens there's a communist/socialist revolution.

Ahahahaha...China...Russia...France...



LennytheWicked
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09 Aug 2012, 9:17 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
phil777 wrote:
I'd be hard-pressed to think that oil would factor in human decline... Lack of food and disease would be a more likely cause. Still, some interesting points brought forward here...


Food depends on modern agribusiness.

Modern agribusiness depends on machinery and fertilizers.

Machinery and fertilizers depend on... oil!

They are one and the same.

I thought fertilizer was mostly poop.