End of 2011, Analysis of GOP Primaries

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As time goes by, who everyone though were going to be the frontrunners and who will be are different.

I personally think it is too late for anyone to enter the Republican race now, as they would be so far in organization and will have to deal the with new scrutiny that the other candidates already dealt with. And they would lack the momentum. So, this field has closed out.

Debate season is over. It is now about campaigning, organizing and funding. Ideas alone won't win.

Iowa is coming up, and this will be a very important primary.

Romney will be in a very strong position, if he wins a state largely considered to be too conservative for him, but even if he doesn't he still has a well funded and well organized campaign.

Santorum, who has appealed to social conservative voters may see an [ephemeral] boost here if he is fortunate.

A poor performance in Iowa will severely restrict funding for most candidates.

Gingrich, whose lead in the polls have diminished, is already having funding problems. If he loses here, more funding can't be expected.

Similarly with Bachmann (who will be competing with Santorum for the same voters I believe), this is likely her last stand.

Rick Perry could make a comeback. And likely will, of some sort, once the candidates who run out of money drop out. Perry has the funding and with the debate season ending, he will have an easier time going to cities and shaking hands with people.

Huntsman clearly won't win this one or even be in the top 4. He's saving his effort for the more moderate state of New Hampshire. He is gambling on a skyrocket from that state, which likely won't happen.

Ron Paul is clearly gaining more recognition and is no longer the candidate to ignore. At the same time, this is a bad thing as he will be pelted with a heavy smear campaign once he wins.

Romney is clearly the most stable frontrunner. Throughout all the polls he takes about 25%. He has been surpassed multiple times, but those candidates eventually self destruct. While the other candidates have gone up and down he is stable.

In the end, despite the media propping up new frontrunners to satisfy the need of the Republican's Anti-Romney, later on, people will want the person who is most apt to defeat Obama, and when it is down to 2-3 major candidates in the GOP, Romney may be the anti- somebody else.

Romney wins.