SWINE FLU Information

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Not really - it is newly arrived here, and numbers are small. The preliminary death rate from this in Mexico appeared to be around 7%, but that is almost certainly way high - there are probably lots of undiagnosed cases there - people that got a little sick and no one wrote them down as cases. In the US, only about 40 confirmed cases and very recent. If the real death rate is much lower (say 1%), it is not surprising that we have not seen 0.4 deaths. (!?! !)

Last edited by monty on 28 Apr 2009, 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

lol, 32 states, my bad
I'm doing an article about the USA, that's why the "51 states" typo

This is pretty bad.
Doesn't even touch my score though.

The virus itself is not that destructive; the body itself causes the destruction in response to the invading organisms. While completely speculative, it's not illogical to suggest that the Mexican population includes more individuals with stronger immune system responses than say the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand. Perhaps people are being protected by lesser immune system responses.

I was thinking maybe the heat, or the lack of humidity, or something environmental that the people that went back north didn't have when they were ill in a different climate. But then it is not even scientific, just wondering, too.

Merle

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_a ... 188729.ece

It appears to have jumped from America’s largest Roman Catholic secondary school, St Francis Prep, in the borough of Queens, to a nearby school for autistic children, the Robin Sue Ward school. At least one pupil there has siblings at St Francis Prep, which is less than a mile away. Robin Sue Ward, which has 400 pupils, was closed yesterday after dozens of autistic children became ill with suspected swine flu.

I suspect it may be because of thousands who may be infected in Mexico, it's only the ones who are suffering badly from the infection that have presented themselves to hospital, up to now. So, mortality rates aren't diluted by the many who only experienced a cough and sore throat then recovered. The situation in the US is different because of the publicity, and your relative affluence. Once you get infection of many hundreds of US citizens, you should start seeing deaths.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... gD97S3DS00



1 hour ago 5:46 AM PDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The acting head of the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention says the confirmed death of a toddler in Texas is a tragic development, but that it's too soon to say just how fast the swine flu virus is spreading.

Dr. Richard Besser said Wednesday health authorities had been anticipating that the virus would cause deaths, and said that "as a pediatrician and a parent, my heart goes out to the family."

But Besser said in a nationally broadcast network interview that it's too soon to say if the death in Texas suggests the virus is spreading to more states. Nor would he say whether officials think it will become a nationwide problem.

Besser said on NBC's "Today" show that he didn't believe "this indicates any change in the strain of the flu."

Besser also said that "we see with any flu virus a spectrum of disease symptoms" and said authorities need to learn more about the threat.

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization warned the first influenza pandemic since 1968 is “imminent” and urged stepped-up preparations after swine flu was confirmed in at least nine countries and 11 U.S. states.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Not that I'm scared or see it becoming something epidemic but better safe than sorry I think.

One of the odd things to note about this flu outbreak is the fact that it seems to have hit people in mid-life hardest of all. It's been reported that most of the deaths in Mexico have involved people who generally have the most robust immune systems - people between 20 and 40. The same thing happened in the 1918 pandemic, the oldest people and children faired better in most cases than those in the 20-40 age group. The reasoning for this is that the flu might trigger such an overwhelming response from the immune system that the lungs quickly build up fluids generated by the body's counter-attack, and the person develops pneumonia. Here's a link that discusses the 1918 pandemic:

http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

Watch to see what happens next, this whole thing could fizzle out quicker than expected. Sonjay Gupta (CNN) noted on twitter that the rate of reported cases in Mexico might be slowing. I guess this could go in several possible directions. Really though, it's way too early to be worrying much.

Yes, so far it seems that it is the inflammatory response of the body that leads to self-destruction. SARS was the same way - they actually saved people using corticosteroids to decrease the immune response and inflammation.

http://xkcd.com/574/

Read all the way to the bottom.

I can see it now... "Lick me, I'm autistic"...

I bolded the special Rules for ASPIE MASS!


Prudent But Poignant

The bishop's special instructions to priests in the Diocese of Corpus Christi for the duration of influenza outbreak:

Due to the seriousness of the Swine Flu, which recently took the life of a child here in Texas, let us take the following measures as a precaution until the danger has passed:

(1) The chalice is not to be shared with the faithful during Mass. Holy Communion is to be given only in the species of the consecrated bread.

(2) Give Holy Communion in the hand and not on the tongue.

(3) The faithful should be encouraged not to hold hands during the Our Father and to share the sign of peace without touching hands or kissing.

(4) Priests, deacons and extraordinary ministers of Holy Communion should be encouraged to practice special hygiene before Mass begins.

(5) Encourage parishioners not to come to Mass when they are sick.

(6) If people come forward for a blessing at communion time, the blessing should be given without touching them.

(7) Care should be taken to make sure that people with celiac or special needs may receive communion in a manner appropriate to their condition.

Once the emergency of this danger has passed, we will immediately return to our traditional practices.

Not really. They have terrible sanitation, which is the only reason so many people down there have died.

Im wondering if it is the dust and the pollution in Mexico. I saw a photo today in the paper of a village in Mexico and there was a lot of dust..a sort of desert dust.