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simon_says
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25 Feb 2014, 10:13 pm

xenon13 wrote:
simon_says wrote:
I think a proper coup requires a bit more effort. This was a President running away. Even the Russians think he's a fool and their state run media called him "the most useless man on earth".


The coup was well-organised and there were gangs or armed militiamen in Kiev. As for Yanukovich, he was effectively a creature of Donetsk oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, who was behind the surrender with the predictable results. The "deal" that was immediately broken involved pulling out Yanukovich's forces and allowing the opposition to take over, and supposedly the EU was to stop them from doing that, but they never had any intention of doing so. Akhmetov owns a very presitgious European football club, Shakhtar Donetsk, and owns property in western Europe and hobnobs with the glitterati. He was threatened with sanctions by the EU over any attempts to stop the neo-Nazi thugs and so when that happened he told Yanukovich to give in.


There were organized actions on both sides.

But the army refused to back him, his party deserted him and unanimously voted to remove him from power, his own security officers walked away from his private home after he fled in the middle of the night. And he left behind enough records to get himself prosecuted. Even his Russian backers think he's a joke now.



AngelRho
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25 Feb 2014, 11:01 pm

redrobin62 wrote:
It appears the Parliament of Ukraine has assumed control for now. I understand there's an election coming up in May. Perhaps the recently released from jail Prime Minister Yulia will become president?

I seriously doubt whether Tymoshenko has designs on the presidency. She's adamantly sidestepped it in the past, and given the current situation, why in the world would she even WANT it? But I'd love to see her come back as PM.

I wish she would run for presidency, but I see it as a politically risky move.

Am I to understand someone here is a fan of Yanukovich? As in "Vote-rig" Yanukovich? As in "Imprison-and/or-shoot-political-enemies" Yanukovich? I find that frightening. Makes me glad to be born in the USA since I don't have to worry about that happening here…

…yet.

Given OUR situation, what with NSA putting police in TV studios and newspaper rooms, the president cutting the size of the military (in favor of what? A private, personal security force?), and massive overreach of executive power, I get this feeling it's only a matter of time before things here resemble what's going on in the former Soviet states.

What has happened with Euromaidan appears to me absolutely heroic. Makes me want to get Rosetta Stone, learn to speak Ukrainian, and move to Kiev. There's just something about those people I feel I can relate to.



LKL
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25 Feb 2014, 11:40 pm

the private zoo thing was pretty astonishing, as was the fact that this occurred with relatively little bloodshed. Yes, people got shot, and yes, *far* too many people died, but if either side had really been trying as hard as they could to kill and hurt as many of the other side as they could, it would have been much, much worse. It was a battle, rather than a war, and that was on purpose by both sides.



91
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26 Feb 2014, 1:03 am

LKL wrote:
the private zoo thing was pretty astonishing, as was the fact that this occurred with relatively little bloodshed. Yes, people got shot, and yes, *far* too many people died, but if either side had really been trying as hard as they could to kill and hurt as many of the other side as they could, it would have been much, much worse. It was a battle, rather than a war, and that was on purpose by both sides.


Not really, Yanukovych's side did all they could but they could not maintain the loyalty of key components of the Ukrainian state. Even his own party abandoned him once they realized the costs of what was coming. If he had the support of the military, then he would never have left the capital.

AngelRho wrote:
I seriously doubt whether Tymoshenko has designs on the presidency. She's adamantly sidestepped it in the past, and given the current situation, why in the world would she even WANT it? But I'd love to see her come back as PM.


I don't know. I think she wants it, just follow her statements on Facebook. Many are in English and I have been following her for years.

----------------

The Russians created a policy in which Ukraine had to chose them or the EU, most of the citizens there don't care to be forced either way. Any look at a demographic map of the place will tell you that compromise is the only solution that will work. The Russian side has been rejected for a second time, not because people there want to fully embrace the EU but because the offer they were made was not compatible with the realities of their own existence.


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26 Feb 2014, 9:15 am

xenon13 wrote:
ArrantPariah wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
tug of war between the US/EU and Russia. Whoever wins, Ukraine loses.


Why do you say that? Is there another option that would be better for Ukraine?


China! Nataliya Vitrenko suggested so much.


:?: For China to take over? Sorry, I haven't been following these events at all. Some occasional links would be useful.



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26 Feb 2014, 10:11 am

xenon13 wrote:
TheGoggles wrote:
The president ordered the police to shoot protesters, so he's not exactly a great guy.


The decision to use live ammo came after the protesters began shooting at people... there is footage confirming the presence of gunmen amongst the so-called peaceful protesters. Also there were looted armouries in western Ukraine and those weapons ended up in the hands of these brownshirt militias...


So if some other person steals a weapon or does a crime, then a government has in your opinion the right to punish someone else for that? The sharpshooters were not blamed for shooting at armed and rioting protesters, but simply at protesters.

I dont know, where you got that all peaceful from, even two weeks ago there were as well violent protests as well and Molotov-cocktails flying. But the reason why the sharpshooter action is that sh***y, because according to video material and similar, they simply shoot randomly at protestors, without caring if they were peaceful or not.



AngelRho
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26 Feb 2014, 10:53 am

91 wrote:
LKL wrote:
the private zoo thing was pretty astonishing, as was the fact that this occurred with relatively little bloodshed. Yes, people got shot, and yes, *far* too many people died, but if either side had really been trying as hard as they could to kill and hurt as many of the other side as they could, it would have been much, much worse. It was a battle, rather than a war, and that was on purpose by both sides.


Not really, Yanukovych's side did all they could but they could not maintain the loyalty of key components of the Ukrainian state. Even his own party abandoned him once they realized the costs of what was coming. If he had the support of the military, then he would never have left the capital.

AngelRho wrote:
I seriously doubt whether Tymoshenko has designs on the presidency. She's adamantly sidestepped it in the past, and given the current situation, why in the world would she even WANT it? But I'd love to see her come back as PM.


I don't know. I think she wants it, just follow her statements on Facebook. Many are in English and I have been following her for years.

----------------

The Russians created a policy in which Ukraine had to chose them or the EU, most of the citizens there don't care to be forced either way. Any look at a demographic map of the place will tell you that compromise is the only solution that will work. The Russian side has been rejected for a second time, not because people there want to fully embrace the EU but because the offer they were made was not compatible with the realities of their own existence.

Hmmm…you'd know better than I do, then…she only caught my attention back when that natural gas scandal broke, and I strongly suspected she was being mistreated immediately following the fallout from that, and by that I mean I don't think she's gotten a fair shake from either Yushenko OR Yanukovich. Heck, I wish she'd move to the USA and become a Tea Party leader instead of messing with Ukrainian politics…but what can I say? She loves her country and her people. I see her being more of an ideological leader than a political figure…someone who leads more from the sidelines. I just don't see how continuing her career would really be in her best interests.

The trouble I see with Tymoshenko, even if she really does want the presidency, is she's too much of a doer. She's a worker. People who like to "do stuff" aren't all that effective as unifiers themselves. I can see how she might take the top job if it presented the best opportunity, but if I were in her position, I'd be concerned whether I even have a country to lead right now.

What I'm more interested to see right now is: 1) Does Turchynov have what it takes to lead Ukraine for the long term? or 2) Is it just a matter of time before someone throws Turchynov under a bus? This all assumes, of course, that Turchynov decides to run for office, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was just hanging on until they can replace their current government. All things considered, he strikes me as a pretty good guy. The problem for Tymoshenko is that a power-grab for ANYONE right now is risky and terribly opportunistic thing in the Ukraine. If I were her, I'd rally my own party from the grassroots, see what Turchynov and his successor(s) do in the next 5 years, and make a serious bid for election THEN. Assuming we don't have any repeats of Euromaidan in the meantime, of course, and assuming this doesn't turn into another Egypt or Arab Spring. If I were Tymoshenko, I'd look at any further disasters as a sign that I should hang up my political career and go back to drilling for gas.



xenon13
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26 Feb 2014, 3:25 pm

simon_says wrote:
xenon13 wrote:
simon_says wrote:
I think a proper coup requires a bit more effort. This was a President running away. Even the Russians think he's a fool and their state run media called him "the most useless man on earth".


The coup was well-organised and there were gangs or armed militiamen in Kiev. As for Yanukovich, he was effectively a creature of Donetsk oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, who was behind the surrender with the predictable results. The "deal" that was immediately broken involved pulling out Yanukovich's forces and allowing the opposition to take over, and supposedly the EU was to stop them from doing that, but they never had any intention of doing so. Akhmetov owns a very presitgious European football club, Shakhtar Donetsk, and owns property in western Europe and hobnobs with the glitterati. He was threatened with sanctions by the EU over any attempts to stop the neo-Nazi thugs and so when that happened he told Yanukovich to give in.


There were organized actions on both sides.

But the army refused to back him, his party deserted him and unanimously voted to remove him from power, his own security officers walked away from his private home after he fled in the middle of the night. And he left behind enough records to get himself prosecuted. Even his Russian backers think he's a joke now.



The word from the south and east of the Ukraine is that Yanukovich failed because he did not smash the threat... and one reason he did not smash the threat was Rinat Akhmetov who feared losing access to his London mansion and the French riviera. It was Akhmetov who got some PoR people to change sides and others did so because they feared for their lives. The security forces were withdrawn, the fascist militias took over "security" in Kiev. In short, the problem, as usual in ex-USSR, is these oligarchs who have no loyalty to their own countries and want to be 'respectable' in the West to show that they can fly with the jet set.



xenon13
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26 Feb 2014, 3:29 pm

AngelRho wrote:
redrobin62 wrote:
It appears the Parliament of Ukraine has assumed control for now. I understand there's an election coming up in May. Perhaps the recently released from jail Prime Minister Yulia will become president?

I seriously doubt whether Tymoshenko has designs on the presidency. She's adamantly sidestepped it in the past, and given the current situation, why in the world would she even WANT it? But I'd love to see her come back as PM.

I wish she would run for presidency, but I see it as a politically risky move.

Am I to understand someone here is a fan of Yanukovich? As in "Vote-rig" Yanukovich? As in "Imprison-and/or-shoot-political-enemies" Yanukovich? I find that frightening. Makes me glad to be born in the USA since I don't have to worry about that happening here…

…yet.

Given OUR situation, what with NSA putting police in TV studios and newspaper rooms, the president cutting the size of the military (in favor of what? A private, personal security force?), and massive overreach of executive power, I get this feeling it's only a matter of time before things here resemble what's going on in the former Soviet states.

What has happened with Euromaidan appears to me absolutely heroic. Makes me want to get Rosetta Stone, learn to speak Ukrainian, and move to Kiev. There's just something about those people I feel I can relate to.


I want the South and the East of Ukraine to actually get some kind of representation in that country. They are always screwed. The 1999 theft of the election from Petro Simonenko most notably. There is a mythology about that country that states that Ukrainians hate Russians with a passion because of their allegedly having been subject to genocide. This is all false. The South and the East of the country do not exist in the dominant discourse and so efforts are made to disenfranchise them. This coup in Kiev is a geopolitical power play aiming to absorb Ukraine into Nato, something massively opposed there... ah, but those people in the east and south do not count...

Yanukovich did not steal the election in 2004... the whole Orange Revolution business was a US-led war from the beginning.



xenon13
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26 Feb 2014, 3:33 pm

AngelRho wrote:
91 wrote:
LKL wrote:
the private zoo thing was pretty astonishing, as was the fact that this occurred with relatively little bloodshed. Yes, people got shot, and yes, *far* too many people died, but if either side had really been trying as hard as they could to kill and hurt as many of the other side as they could, it would have been much, much worse. It was a battle, rather than a war, and that was on purpose by both sides.


Not really, Yanukovych's side did all they could but they could not maintain the loyalty of key components of the Ukrainian state. Even his own party abandoned him once they realized the costs of what was coming. If he had the support of the military, then he would never have left the capital.

AngelRho wrote:
I seriously doubt whether Tymoshenko has designs on the presidency. She's adamantly sidestepped it in the past, and given the current situation, why in the world would she even WANT it? But I'd love to see her come back as PM.


I don't know. I think she wants it, just follow her statements on Facebook. Many are in English and I have been following her for years.

----------------

The Russians created a policy in which Ukraine had to chose them or the EU, most of the citizens there don't care to be forced either way. Any look at a demographic map of the place will tell you that compromise is the only solution that will work. The Russian side has been rejected for a second time, not because people there want to fully embrace the EU but because the offer they were made was not compatible with the realities of their own existence.

Hmmm…you'd know better than I do, then…she only caught my attention back when that natural gas scandal broke, and I strongly suspected she was being mistreated immediately following the fallout from that, and by that I mean I don't think she's gotten a fair shake from either Yushenko OR Yanukovich. Heck, I wish she'd move to the USA and become a Tea Party leader instead of messing with Ukrainian politics…but what can I say? She loves her country and her people. I see her being more of an ideological leader than a political figure…someone who leads more from the sidelines. I just don't see how continuing her career would really be in her best interests.

The trouble I see with Tymoshenko, even if she really does want the presidency, is she's too much of a doer. She's a worker. People who like to "do stuff" aren't all that effective as unifiers themselves. I can see how she might take the top job if it presented the best opportunity, but if I were in her position, I'd be concerned whether I even have a country to lead right now.

What I'm more interested to see right now is: 1) Does Turchynov have what it takes to lead Ukraine for the long term? or 2) Is it just a matter of time before someone throws Turchynov under a bus? This all assumes, of course, that Turchynov decides to run for office, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was just hanging on until they can replace their current government. All things considered, he strikes me as a pretty good guy. The problem for Tymoshenko is that a power-grab for ANYONE right now is risky and terribly opportunistic thing in the Ukraine. If I were her, I'd rally my own party from the grassroots, see what Turchynov and his successor(s) do in the next 5 years, and make a serious bid for election THEN. Assuming we don't have any repeats of Euromaidan in the meantime, of course, and assuming this doesn't turn into another Egypt or Arab Spring. If I were Tymoshenko, I'd look at any further disasters as a sign that I should hang up my political career and go back to drilling for gas.


The Russians did not tell the Ukraine to choose, that was the EU that did that. The EU demanded that the Ukraine choose; this is about the eastward march of what is described in the high levels there as the "Euro-Atlantic" order.

Turchynov is a creature of Timoshenko whose corruption is legendary, most notably during the Pavlo Lazarenko premiership in the mid to late 1990s. Lazarenko spent quite a lot of time in an American(!) prison for that corruption.

Many Ukrainian oligarchs like the Yanukovich-backer Rinat Akhmetov are of the opinion that Timoshenko's policies damaged them to the benefit of Russian oligarchs!



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26 Feb 2014, 3:35 pm

Schneekugel wrote:
xenon13 wrote:
TheGoggles wrote:
The president ordered the police to shoot protesters, so he's not exactly a great guy.


The decision to use live ammo came after the protesters began shooting at people... there is footage confirming the presence of gunmen amongst the so-called peaceful protesters. Also there were looted armouries in western Ukraine and those weapons ended up in the hands of these brownshirt militias...


So if some other person steals a weapon or does a crime, then a government has in your opinion the right to punish someone else for that? The sharpshooters were not blamed for shooting at armed and rioting protesters, but simply at protesters.

I dont know, where you got that all peaceful from, even two weeks ago there were as well violent protests as well and Molotov-cocktails flying. But the reason why the sharpshooter action is that sh***y, because according to video material and similar, they simply shoot randomly at protestors, without caring if they were peaceful or not.


If the so-called protesters are shooting at the police with live ammo and shooting at people in general from their protected base, is it the job of the police to just sit there and take it? This would never have been allowed to go this far in a Western country, never!



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26 Feb 2014, 3:37 pm

ArrantPariah wrote:
xenon13 wrote:
ArrantPariah wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
tug of war between the US/EU and Russia. Whoever wins, Ukraine loses.


Why do you say that? Is there another option that would be better for Ukraine?


China! Nataliya Vitrenko suggested so much.


:?: For China to take over? Sorry, I haven't been following these events at all. Some occasional links would be useful.


When she ran for president in 1999 as leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Nataliya Vitrenko turned some heads by stating that the Ukraine should have nuclear weapons again. She also suggested expanding relations with China to offset the influences of Russia and the West. In short, this was very much a policy of independence.



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26 Feb 2014, 3:44 pm

I see one report that a crowd tore down the Ukrainian flag at the city hall of its second biggest city and former capital Kharkov, and replaced it with a Russian flag. The governor of the Kharkov region, Mikhail Dobkin, says he wants to run for president. If he can carry most of the eastern and southern votes he wins. The other side is full of either disreputable characters or someone not takien especially seriously as he is a celebrity candidate (Klitschko)... there is talk of the chocolate oligarch, Petro Poroshenko, being popular but he does not want to run. In the end, it's the same thing, oligarch people...



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26 Feb 2014, 3:52 pm

Xenon, why don't you run for president of Ukraine?



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26 Feb 2014, 6:41 pm

If they need a Constitution, they can borrow ours, we're not using it.



xenon13
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27 Feb 2014, 8:28 pm

The governor of Kharkov, Mikhail Dobkin, wants to run for the presidency and he should win considering he would get the pro-Russian votes... but the Nazis in charge of security in Kiev and in western Ukraine of course will see that this does not happen. The Nazi party has one of their people running the state prosecutor office!

Oh, and the new US hand-picked prime minister said of his government; "Welcome to Hell".