Russian army has invaded the Crimea

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Other than ongoing costs and recent unpaid bills, the Ukraine has $140 Billion in long term debt, most bearing more than 6%.

So interest only payments are $9 Billion a year.

Both the IMF and the EU have said more loans will have to be used to pay off outstanding loans.

Economic adjustments are being demanded, raising the price of gas, fuel, food, and cutting government benefits, payrolls and pensions.

Also the EU trade deal calls for them to buy from Europe, not the cheap supplies they have been getting in trade with Russia, which has been over $4 billion. Ukraine goods are now barred from Russia, their largest trading partner.

Even seen as a trade war, Europe has little to gain from the Ukraine Market, and a lot to lose in Eurobonds.

The effects on Ukraine are worse. The Europe IMF cash flow stops, and the Russian gas and food stops.

It is one of the best grain fields on earth, and the whole country needs to be plowed, fertilized, planted, about now. That is a lot of diesel, tires, tractor parts, fertilzer, seed. Labor needs to be paid. Even more energy and labor is needed to harvest and store the crops.

Their main source of income is in doubt.

Even with the loans as investment, discounted fuel prices, Ukraine income has been dropping for decades. Their cost of production is high, with many small farms.

One bad year could bankrupt everyone.

The time to fight a famine is before it starts.

This is why I think the country will end up breaking in half. Ukrainians would like to get into the EU because they feel it will relieve them of some of the burden. The door was slammed in their faces.

The EU/US have messed this up so badly. Now the Russians have taken Crimea and they will not give it back because they don't care what the rest of the world thinks of it, and the EU has to pay to prop up what's left of Ukraine. So far the EU is the big loser and they don't even realise their hissy fit will not change the situation in Crimea. Any sanctions will only cost EU citizens more money but apparantly no one cares about that anymore.

The deal offered by the EU did not include menbership, or even being considered a candidate for membership.

The same for NATO.

The offer was from a collection agent for a debt. Raise prices, cut wages, and pay on the debt.

The Russian offer to their brother nation was for even lower gas prices, and free trade in the lower priced Russian Market. Besides that they would buy $15 Billion of the debt.

This offer did not exclude trade with the EU or anyone else.

The Ukraine produces grain, it is worth more than oil, and will not run out. Production could be doubled, the market would buy it.

The Russian lifeline was a way to get out of debt and maintain the level of living.

The EU lifeline comes with eturnal serfdom.

Eastern Europe, EU and Non EU, has very low wages, $15 a month, Doctors make $30.

Wage cuts and raising fuel prices leaves no money for food.

Without free to low cost education, health care, rent, fuel, and food prices, these people would starve.

The EU demand is unrealistic.

Referendum is done, people overwhelmingly voted for Crimea to become part of the Russian Federation. US and EU don't recognize the referendum.

Crimea does not recognize any EU or US Overlords.

80% voter turnout, 95.5% voting to be a Republic joined to the Russian Federation.

Other areas of the Ukraine also want to vote.

May 25, the next election, even without Crimea, only two million out of 46, pro Russian voted in the last President, and there will be a new government in the Ukraine.

The US, UK, EU, NATO, the UN all fully support a government in Kiev that will cease to exist in 70 days.

The Ukraine people cannot vote for freedom, freedom will be imposed upon them from the West!

Sanctions in light of, the Russians supply the space station. The Russians have allowed America to move troops and machines into Afganistan, and they all have to be out by the end of the year. Close that gate, and they can walk out through Pakistan. Also Russian choppers are the only ones that can fly high enough to resupply in Afganistan.

American banks have $25 Billion in loans in Russia. Germans have $60 Billion invested.

Europe's economy runs on Russian gas. The French pay in aircraft, other nations in manufactured goods, Russia is a big customer.

A 1% downturn in the world economy would be a disaster. Syria still needs ten million people fed, given health care, education, and Chinese exports are down.

It would not take much to cause a long term recession.

Thing is, no vote would be recognized as legitimate under international law when a foreign army is the soil of said country and the vote is in favor of the owner of said foreign army.

Quite frankly, the only option the Ukraine has now is to call Putin's bluff by mounting a military offensive. If Russian forces engage the Ukranians then Putin loses any hope of getting out of the consequences of this little landgrab of his. There won't be war with NATO but the economic effect, sanctions and essentially loss of trust in all things Russian will cost them dearly.

Yeah, you'd think Putin would have some sense and stop now. That's what all the effort has been about anyway. The West ultimately does not care about Crimea but if you don't send a message on day one you have less momentum to challenge further aggression on day ten. And some NATO nations worry that on day 15 it's their turn. Certainly worth making a stink about.

Merkel isn't riding this train for fun.

There were no independent political observants allowed, and instead of them russian tanks stood in the neighborhood. Dont know how you feel about it, but "being able to give my vote without any pressure" and having a tank before my frontdoor, does not fit, in my oppinion.

The argument is a backdraft on both sides. Because Russian economy runs on gas exports. ^^

The Crimea is the new Sudatenland.

ruveyn

100% agreed.

Thinking about it now, the situation in the Crimea is kind of like the situation in the Gaza Strip. Coincidentally, I just heard a rumor that the Gaza Strip wants to join the Russian Federation. :O http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_1 ... site-9554/

But continuing on my original note, it seems pretty obvious that the people in Crimea want to join Russia, so they should just give Crimea to the Russians, peacefully, and call it a day. Similarly, instead of fighting over the Gaza Strip, the Israelis should just peacefully hand it over to the Palestinians, and call it a day. Of course, if the Russians or the Palestinians start encroaching further on Ukrainian or Israeli territory, respectively, then that's when the Ukrainians and Israelis should fight back.

Russia has a legitimate claim to Crimea and the populace wants to be apart of Russia, I don't see the issue. Why shouldn't they have a right to self-determination? The government in Kiev took power in a illegal coup freeing Crimea from their union with Ukraine. People are making a stink about the 97% number but where were they when the Falklands voted 99.8% to stay with the UK? Some time it is just that clear cut, Crimea is Russian speaking and largely ethnic Russian. Yanukovych won 80% of the vote in the region in 2010, does anyone doubt that this referendum reflects the true will of the vast majority of people in the Crimea?

This talk about territorial integrity is a joke when the west chipped off a piece of Serbia to create the country of Kosovo for the ethnic Albanians and did so by bombing the **** of the Serbs for 80 days. The reasoning for that wasn't to expand the American empire, just to distract the American populace from their president's impeachment.

You guys need to see things from other perspectives and to stop buying into this BS Cold War narrative that our media and politicians are trying to play up. Our government LIES, our government MANIPULATES, our government is no more moral or ethical or law abiding than the one in Russia and that is SAD considering Russia only been a "free" country for a little more 20 years. Russia's action seem a lot more rational when you know acknowledge what the US and it's allies have been doing in eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics over the last 20 year.

Good post. Furthermore Crimea was historically Russian territory, but it was basically handed over to Ukraine during the Soviet era in the 1950s. Over the years the population has remained almost 90% ethnically Russian because that's how it started out, it was Russian territory to begin with. Today, the Europeans have stirred up the s**t in Ukraine to where people are dying and it is run by a completely ineffective fascist anti-Semitic puppet government. I don't know how anybody that lives in a democratic country can be against separation when 96% of the local population vote for it. Nobody who is against the secession is even claiming that the voting was rigged, it was a legitimate vote. Don't buy into the BS that the media is feeding us. Now northern Italy is planning to secede and you don't hear anyone calling that illegal. So why is 96% of the population in Crimea voting to split an illegal act? Pure hypocrisy. Why is a democratic country, who threw off Britain's yoke through revolution, so against the Crimeans' right to self determination?

historically it belonged to the tarters until Russia evicted them and replaced the population with russians, so techincally the Russians should leave, let the remaining tarters return and have them decide what happens. It seems more likely the 250k tarters that have returned will likely be evicted again

Revolution = coup? so the United states is a illegal coup that's been around for over 200 years. Interesting.

I won't likely trust any vote done under the boot of foreign troops. if Canada sent troops into Washington and then days after a "vote" was held and Washington voted to join Canada would you trust this? there was no move towards the area by ukraine, there were no threats. Russia just saw a chance to take it. They gave it up cause of the cost to supply and run it. now the cost is going cost Russia a lot. its done, let them have it, let it drain Russia of its money. less money to fund future stuff. It'd be like the USA taking Greece, we couldn't afford to run Greece. lol however I think eventually russia will invade eastern ukriane and more, they need the stuff to keep flowing into Crimea or the people there will freeze and starve.

also regardless of how you feel about Crimea , what claim does Russia have to Ukrainian ships? none, the ships didn't belong to Crimea , Russia, they belong to Ukraine, if Russia was truly only interested in Crimea , they would allow all ukriane military personal and ships/tanks to withdraw peacefully like they tried.

if you like it so much go live in Russia, I hears its not so great especially if you're a homosexual.

Was the falkland voting as well done with tanks before the frontdoor?