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naturalplastic
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28 Oct 2014, 8:05 am

wittgenstein wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Lessee...

If ISIS took over oil fields in -where ever- Iraq or Kuwaitt- what exactly would happen?

Would the ISIS fighters drink all of the oil?

Would they just leave it in the ground?

Most likely they would...SELL it!

And they would probably give us a better price than OPEC, and undercut our "friends" the Saudies, Qatar, and the Emirates.

Or maybe they're such meanies that would refuse to sell the oil at all. Which would mean that would be keeping themselves in poverty, and hurting themselves more than they would be hurting us by refusing to do business.

Or maybe they would sell their oil, but just not to us. India, and China, get more thirsty for oil every day. So maybe they will just only sell oil to those two markets, and not to us. Which would mean that India and China would get oil from ISIS, and would buy less oil from somewhere else, and free up that unbought oil for...US Americans to buy. So it still wouldnt mean anything.

That is uninformed nonsense. The world is running out of oil not just the US. Finding a market would not be a problem even without the US. Besides we are talking about religious fanatics not self-interest capitalists. True they like money but not as much as their crazy beliefs. For God's sake they are willing to die for them.
The next big war will be between Russia and US. Because of global warming the Arctic will melt exposing the last major oil reserves.
Or are you saying that the world is not running out of oil?! ! :D No, you cannot be that uninformed. Why do you think there is fracking? Because even tho it is far more expensive than conventional drilling, we are desperate. Its like having an eighth of an inch of pepsi in our glass and shooting water into the glass to get the pepsi molecules off those pesky ice cubes.


So what?

Doesnt change what I am saying.

What exactly do you envision happening?

ISIS takes over Kuwaitt- and the whole western world instantly collapses?



wittgenstein
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28 Oct 2014, 11:56 am

Your sarcasm is silly and makes no point. Good sarcasm has an actual legitimate point behind it. Constructing a strawman is silly sarcasm.
No, if ISIS took over Kuwait it would not mean that western civilization would instantly end. There goal is a caliphate that controls the entire region. Kuwait would be just one step closer to that goal. Plus with Kuwait's wealth that goal would be easy to achieve. It is better to fight now rather than when they are stronger.
I never said "instantly. " As I said previously this thread proves that some people cannot see the big picture and can only see what is immediately in front of them.


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28 Oct 2014, 12:09 pm

I suppose we could rely on that great ally Russia for our oil! :D *
If I was Obama (for the Arab countries that hate ISIS) I would tell them we are in a jihad against the infidels (ISIS). Both they and us agree that ISIS is Muslim in name only and that ISIS hates the principles of the Koran ( the Koran is against rape etc)
A little history,
Our campaign against Serbia (Kosovo) was a huge success (few casualties). I would have declared war earlier, during the Bosnian conflict and saved many muslim lives
* if we let a caliphate be created, we will not vanish instantly. However, our reserves (in the US) would be consumed rapidly. The point is to postpone the end of oil to give us time to adapt (alternative energy sources).
Seriously, what do you think will happen when the oil runs out? No food! You cannot supply all the grocery stores in the US with horse drawn carriages. No food means riots and the destruction of social institutions.
Plus our population requires tractors. Horse drawn plows cannot supply enough food.


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Last edited by wittgenstein on 28 Oct 2014, 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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28 Oct 2014, 3:49 pm

naturalplastic wrote:

Most likely they would...SELL it!

And they would probably give us a better price than OPEC, and undercut our "friends" the Saudies, Qatar, and the Emirates.

.

ISIS would give us a price discount? Why? Because they love the USA? :D
But in the scenario we are talking about there is a caliphate that owns Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the emirates. Your "reasoning "may work fine on planet bizarro but not in the real world. Here 1+1 still equals 2.


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Last edited by wittgenstein on 28 Oct 2014, 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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28 Oct 2014, 3:53 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Lessee...



Or maybe they're such meanies that would refuse to sell the oil at all. Which would mean that would be keeping themselves in poverty, and hurting themselves more than they would be hurting us by refusing to do business.

.

What are you smoking? Where can I buy some? :D The oil market is a seller's market. Google "seller's market" to know what I am talking about.


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Last edited by wittgenstein on 28 Oct 2014, 4:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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28 Oct 2014, 3:59 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Lessee...


Or maybe they would sell their oil, but just not to us. India, and China, get more thirsty for oil every day. So maybe they will just only sell oil to those two markets, and not to us. Which would mean that India and China would get oil from ISIS, and would buy less oil from somewhere else, and free up that unbought oil for...US Americans to buy. So it still wouldnt mean anything.

Yeah, the world is over flowing with oil. :D :D :D
Hmmmm that somewhere else is? Russia? OK lets say that Russia or Venezuela (yeah they are friendly! :D ) sell us oil instead of their friends. Even then we will run out of oil. The clock is ticking. We need to postpone the lack of oil for as long as we can so we can have time to switch over to alternative energy.


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naturalplastic
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28 Oct 2014, 4:13 pm

wittgenstein wrote:
Your sarcasm is silly and makes no point. Good sarcasm has an actual legitimate point behind it. Constructing a strawman is silly sarcasm.
No, if ISIS took over Kuwait it would not mean that western civilization would instantly end. There goal is a caliphate that controls the entire region. Kuwait would be just one step closer to that goal. Plus with Kuwait's wealth that goal would be easy to achieve. It is better to fight now rather than when they are stronger.
I never said "instantly. " As I said previously this thread proves that some people cannot see the big picture and can only see what is immediately in front of them.


Ive composed several science fiction novels in my head that involve a future Islamic caliphate- either a benign European Union type deal unifying North Africa and the mideast, or an evil Third Riech type deal, or some combination of both developments. But we are not talking about sci fi about a down the road future, Were talking about near term US foreign policy.

Like everyone else on the PPR you talk about the ISIS as if it were the USSR, or the Third Riech, or Japan under Tojo, an industrial giant nation capable of conquering territory.

ISIS only has a few thousand fighters, and a few thousand square miles of territory, and is struggling to make the transiton from being a "stateless actor" to being a crude state. They may boast about putting thier flag on the whitehouse, but they have yet to sieze the local middle east equivalent of Dogpatch Arkansas much less seize a capital city, much less be able to threaten capitals on other continents.And they have a to go before they control any actual country (with or without oil).

IF Bagdad did actually fall to ISIS Iran would jump in and invade Iraq from the east to rescue their Shiite Iraqi allies from ISIS before the West would even be able to react. And ISIS would probably beg NATO to come in and save its ass by way of pleading to help save Iraqi's Sunni population from Iranian tryanny when that happens.

And even if ISIS were to topple the Iraqi government, seize the capital of Bagdad, and were able to semi consolidate its hold on Iraq, and were even to simultaneously invade south to sieze Kuwaitt-and were able to do this- all without either Iran, or NATO interfereing with them because some magic force keeps both NATO and Teheran at bay- and they were to gain tenous control over both Kuwaitt's and Iraq's oil. So what? It may be alot of oil, but its not even fraction of the oil in the Middle East alone-much less the world. So if they hold their breath and turn blue and refused to sell their oil- the industrialized world would just keep on buying oil from lower in the Persian Gulf, Iran, Libya, and the North Sea, etc, and the world wouldnt miss a beat.

So ISIS is a long way from commandeering the world's oil supply, and its Muslim nieghbors are bigger obstacle to that happening than is the West.

But consider this:

Why is a terror gang of a few thousand fighters be spending so much energy seemingly just to taunt the USA? The rival factions in syria never behead americans on twitter, or boast about someday seizing the Whitehouse? Why does ISIS do that? Do they WANT the superpower to come in and beat the crap out of them? Wouldnt that be suicidal?

The fact probably is that they DO want provoke a US ground invasion. The reason being that (a) they want the USA bogged down in the quagmire again, and (b) they believe that a US led ground invasion would unite the rival groups in the region against the foriegn invader, and to unite behind ISIS. Thus "getting medeaval on them" would paradoxiaclly make them stronger, and would catapault them into the very power they seek.

Or thats what they think would happen.

So the question is:should the USA take the bait? Or should the USA avoid taking the bait?

That's a real question. I dont claim to know the answer.

But obviously you are advocating playing right into ISIS's hand and taking the bait and attacking, and becoming occupiers, and uniting all of the fighting factions of Syria and Iraq against us, and for us to wallow in the same quagmire we just crawled out of. Fine, but be aware of what it is that you want.



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28 Oct 2014, 4:23 pm

So the ISIS plan is for us to destroy them, occupy the land they stole, and then the Arabs will no longer side with us and long for the days of ISIS occupation? :D


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28 Oct 2014, 4:33 pm

wittgenstein wrote:
What do you disagree with?
1. ISIS is evil.

Thats not my contention.

"ISIS is evil" does not mean best solution ="go in all guns blazing". That strategy in Iraq helped create ISIS in the first place.
wittgenstein wrote:
2. We depend on the middle east oil big time.

So the solution is to switch to renewable and sustainable energy alternatives. Simples.
wittgenstein wrote:
3. Intense and brief military action (at least in this situation) is preferable to long drawn out conflict.

Yes, but not with western boots on the ground. That would only further antagonise violence against western interests.
wittgenstein wrote:
4. Without oil western civilization will become medieval.

Absolute nonsense. With greater use of green energy, oil would be seen for what it is, antiquated and unsustainable.
wittgenstein wrote:
If you agree with 1-4 then (if you are logical) you are forced by logic to be for intense intervention.
I think you should think more before dismissing something as stupid or silly.

The factoids you stated aren't as simple as you made them out to be and overlook important political and scientific semantics.


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wittgenstein
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28 Oct 2014, 4:43 pm

Ummm at least read my posts before responding.
1.I am for alternative energy.
2. Yes, our immoral policies created ISIS. Scroll back! So you would not fight Hitlerism?
3. Boots on the ground would not antagonize arabs. They hate ISIS. Especially, if Obama frames it as a jihad (scroll back)
4. I am all for green energy (scroll back). However, the transition will take time.
How can I debate someone that does not read my posts?


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28 Oct 2014, 4:59 pm

Thomas,
I think you think in terms of black and white. Reality is grey. I imagine that you think I am pro Israel and anti Arab. I agree Israel has done terrorist acts and so have the arabs. I am pro Israel and pro Arab. That is why I hate ISIS, they hate the Koran (they support it in name only,scroll back) and ISIS is anti Arab. (just ask the Arabs!)


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28 Oct 2014, 5:03 pm

"scientific semantics"? What scientific word did I define improperly?


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28 Oct 2014, 5:27 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
They may boast about putting thier flag on the whitehouse, but they have yet to sieze the local middle east equivalent of Dogpatch Arkansas much less seize a capital city, much less be able to threaten capitals on other continents.And they have a to go before they control any actual country (with or without oil).

IF Bagdad did actually fall to ISIS Iran would jump in and invade Iraq from the east to rescue their Shiite Iraqi allies from ISIS before the West would even be able to react.

Response to first paragraph, scroll back, especially the first few sentences in the OP!
Response to second paragraph, agreed! Lets fight ISIS with Iran. I remember the Bosnia crisis. I was a white hot hawk. I even came up with a weird plan (scroll back when I talked about what my ex girlfriend said) I said lets transport Iranians to Bosnia!! ! They take the casualties and save their Muslim brothers. We destroy the government of Serbia! Win win!


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28 Oct 2014, 5:36 pm

I believe that ISIS will suffer defeats under our current strategy. However, stomping on 10 or 20 cockroachs per day is not an intelligent strategy. The house will still be filled with cockroachs (ISIS).


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28 Oct 2014, 5:36 pm

Repeat post.
I will take this opportunity to add,
1. ISIS is evil and hates the Koran. That is why most Arabs hate ISIS.
2. If handled properly, an intense attack on ISIS will have Arab support. Call it a jihad for example,which an intense action is,against a organization that hates the morality preached in the Koran.
3. An ISIS victory (the establishment of a caliphate ) will mean the end of oil and the end of western civilization.


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28 Oct 2014, 5:59 pm

wittgenstein wrote:
I remember decades ago a girlfriend told me," When you say something I think God he's weird. But then I think about it and realize, my God he is absolutely right!" I imagine you guys are experiencing that same AHA moment.

You're delusional.


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