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lau
Quinquaginta Novem! Male Gee-knee-us + silly bits.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006
Age: 59
Posts: 6636
Location: Somerset UK
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 Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Membership and posts |
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[old img]http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5804/firstpostbf3.png[/img]
The above is an older graph, with some glitches at the start, where I picked users that had not posted until a while after they registered.
However, I have just messed up my login on ImageShack, and until that's sorted out, I'm slightly stuck. I can't be bothered to create a new username - I'll wait until ImageShack sort out why my password change hasn't been accepted... PS. I've managed to log in, and now it discards all my uploads. Bleugh.
The source data (FirstPost1.csv) for what will be the updated version of above graph is:
| Code: | "join","user number","first post number","posts/user"
14/06/04,2,13,6.5
17/06/04,4,36,9
20/06/04,8,17,2.13
24/06/04,17,97,5.71
25/06/04,31,155,5
28/06/04,63,416,6.6
04/07/04,129,707,5.48
11/07/04,254,1617,6.37
02/09/04,510,5465,10.72
05/02/05,931,18820,20.21
04/08/05,1999,69800,34.92
20/02/06,3998,191162,47.81
15/12/06,7997,376690,47.1
02/01/08,15998,1122830,70.19
08/04/08,18442,1330843,72.16 |
(The final column is calculated)
I chose users who had registered then (mostly) immediately posted.
It gives a rough idea of the rate at which WP has grown.
Posts per member is just over 72. I suppose I could analyse this to get a rather unrealistic "Average post rate". At a guess, that would come out at between one and two posts per week.
_________________
new, adj. Different colour from previous model.
Novinson's Revolutionary Discovery: When comes the revolution, things will be different -- not better, just different.
Last edited by lau on Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Kaleido
On an extended tea break
Joined: Feb 19, 2007
Age: 50
Posts: 2165
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| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:04 am Post subject: |
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Very cool 
Starting to follow a predictable pattern after April/May 2006 by the looks of it. Wonder if it will stay like that or do a bell curve. I predict a general levelling out maybe due to competition or anonymity due to size. These are my first thoughts anyway.
People are unpredictable so anything could happen. |
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lau
Quinquaginta Novem! Male Gee-knee-us + silly bits.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006
Age: 59
Posts: 6636
Location: Somerset UK
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| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 11:19 am Post subject: |
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[old img]http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/7751/firstpost1bn1.png[/img]
(I haven't worked out what's happening at ImageShack. Eventually I found a page that actually uploaded, and KEPT, my image, via "Classic View" and a link down the bottom of that page. Most odd.)
_________________
new, adj. Different colour from previous model.
Novinson's Revolutionary Discovery: When comes the revolution, things will be different -- not better, just different.
Last edited by lau on Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Grimfaire
Deinonychus
Joined: Aug 06, 2007
Age: 38
Posts: 345
Location: Michigan
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| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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Very neat analysis... like to see more data points but nice none the less.
Of course, you have odd folks like me who have been lurking since just after about June of 2004 but didn't register and post until near the end of 2007.
_________________
When in trouble or in doubt; run in circles scream and shout. |
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lau
Quinquaginta Novem! Male Gee-knee-us + silly bits.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006
Age: 59
Posts: 6636
Location: Somerset UK
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: |
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As we sneak towards the 20,000th user...
[old img]http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/4894/postsperuser2ap6.png[/img]
[old img]http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/8111/usersposts2cp7.png[/img]
"join","user number","first post number","posts/user"
14/06/04,2,13,6.5
17/06/04,4,36,9
20/06/04,8,17,2.13
24/06/04,17,97,5.71
25/06/04,31,155,5
28/06/04,63,416,6.6
04/07/04,129,707,5.48
11/07/04,254,1617,6.37
02/09/04,510,5465,10.72
05/02/05,931,18820,20.21
04/08/05,1999,69800,34.92
20/02/06,3998,191162,47.81
15/12/06,7997,376690,47.1
02/01/08,15998,1122830,70.19
08/04/08,18442,1330843,72.16
16/06/08,19983,1519721,76.05
_________________
new, adj. Different colour from previous model.
Novinson's Revolutionary Discovery: When comes the revolution, things will be different -- not better, just different.
Last edited by lau on Sat Jul 26, 2008 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total |
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JerryHatake
Kumdo Practitioner
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
Age: 20
Posts: 8681
Location: Woodbridge, VA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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I was wondering if you could explain the charts to me, lau.
_________________
Jerry
"No one is the same you can't compare yourself to other people because everyone is different" - Michelle
"Everything happens for a reason, no matter how hard that is to believe sometimes, it is so true!" - Michelle
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lau
Quinquaginta Novem! Male Gee-knee-us + silly bits.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006
Age: 59
Posts: 6636
Location: Somerset UK
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not sure what to "explain".
By using a logarithmic vertical scale, you can see that the number of users and total posts are both tending to increase exponentially. I.e. the recent part of the graphs seem to be not very far of a straight line, vaguely imply that both could be expected to nearly double each year. (Although maybe the rate is slowing up a little).
Initially, (i.e. for the first year) they were rocketting up, but then settled down to a smoother, steady increase.
The fact that the average posts per user is steadily increasing (now just over 76), I find quite interesting. I think it shows that as WP has grown, the members are taking it more seriously.
=================
I think I might have to do a little mathematics here, because I can't quite see what the near-linear growth of "posts per member" means.
If the membership was just a fixed number, all of whom posted in a completely uniform way, obviously the PPM would just go up linearly, with 76 after four years meaning they had posted just less than once a fortnight for all the four years.
However, the membership has been going up exponentially, plus I suspect a better model for a user is one where they join, post for a while, then leave. Either they are staying longer, or posting more often.
I suppose I could dip into the member list, pick out a whole chunk at random, and try to figure out some pattern. It is just too much hassle, doing this sort of statistic, though. It also becomes pretty meaningless.
_________________
new, adj. Different colour from previous model.
Novinson's Revolutionary Discovery: When comes the revolution, things will be different -- not better, just different. |
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JerryHatake
Kumdo Practitioner
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
Age: 20
Posts: 8681
Location: Woodbridge, VA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: |
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Ok make more sense to me now, lau. Thanks for explaining it to me.
_________________
Jerry
"No one is the same you can't compare yourself to other people because everyone is different" - Michelle
"Everything happens for a reason, no matter how hard that is to believe sometimes, it is so true!" - Michelle
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Pandora
Cat Lady
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Age: 47
Posts: 4684
Location: Townsville
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:48 am Post subject: |
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Lau, if the lack of sense of humour shown by some members is any indication, a few of us are taking this site far TOO seriously.
_________________
Break out you Western girls,
Someday soon you're gonna rule the world.
Break out you Western girls,
Hold your heads up high.
"Western Girls" - Dragon
I am banned  |
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lau
Quinquaginta Novem! Male Gee-knee-us + silly bits.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006
Age: 59
Posts: 6636
Location: Somerset UK
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| Posted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Pandora wrote: | | Lau, if the lack of sense of humour shown by some members is any indication, a few of us are taking this site far TOO seriously. |
I cannot fathom what you are saying here.
I do not assume that any member has a sense of humour. That would be a most rash thing to do, on a site such as this.
I don't know why you would phrase this the way you have. Who are the "some members" and who are "the few", and which "us" are you making yourself a part of?
I do take this site extremely seriously. Are you saying that you don't?
_________________
new, adj. Different colour from previous model.
Novinson's Revolutionary Discovery: When comes the revolution, things will be different -- not better, just different. |
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Tim_Tex
Antichrist...and Proud of It!
Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Age: 28
Posts: 18866
Location: San Marcos, Texas
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| Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:36 am Post subject: |
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That is quite interesting.
_________________
When you need something, that's a responsibility, that only an adult...of my maturity...Bunnies!!!
~Meatwad, Aqua Teen Hunger Force |
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lau
Quinquaginta Novem! Male Gee-knee-us + silly bits.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006
Age: 59
Posts: 6636
Location: Somerset UK
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: |
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Posts per...
user day user.day
I threw in a few more data points....
"join","user number","first post number"
14/06/04,2,13
17/06/04,4,36
20/06/04,8,17
24/06/04,17,97
25/06/04,31,155
28/06/04,63,416
04/07/04,129,707
11/07/04,254,1617
02/09/04,510,5465
18/11/04,706,10000
05/02/05,931,18820
23/03/05,1402,26355
03/06/05,1700,42979
04/08/05,1999,69800
01/11/05,2500,114365
12/12/05,3200,143462
20/02/06,3998,191162
16/05/06,5000,224655
05/09/06,6402,285314
15/12/06,7997,376690
30/01/07,9000,432675
17/03/07,10000,514599
29/04/07,11002,619085
14/06/07,12007,745657
09/08/07,13000,843633
02/11/07,14783,1000000
02/01/08,15998,1122830
08/04/08,18442,1330843
16/06/08,19983,1519721
26/07/08,20781,1601387
_________________
new, adj. Different colour from previous model.
Novinson's Revolutionary Discovery: When comes the revolution, things will be different -- not better, just different. |
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Kaleido
On an extended tea break
Joined: Feb 19, 2007
Age: 50
Posts: 2165
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| Posted: Sat Jul 26, 2008 9:21 am Post subject: |
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Thats great, must have been a lot of work.
Well done Lau  |
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