ebola scenario
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Kraichgauer
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Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,790
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
17 Sep 2014, 7:24 am
khaoz wrote:
I am suspicious that Islamic extremists are assisting in the spread of Ebola.
Everything about the outbreak is consistent with natural transmission and nothing is consistent with intentional transmission. Also, why Islamic extremists? Although the majority religion in Liberia is Christianity, the majority religion in Guinea and Sierra Leone is Islam. Nigeria is about a 50/50 split Christianity/Islam. So what you are suggesting is that terrorists are carefully crafting transmission to mimic natural transmission- something that will make it impossible to see that terrorism has taken place even though all other terrorist actions have been crafted to be obviously deliberate. You are also suggesting that this discreet terrorism is targeting a demographic which is as much Muslim as it is Christian. So where are your suspicions coming from?
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What better suicide mission than to make this virus airborne?
Pretty much any suicide mission would be better (more effective and even possible) than to make the virus airborne.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/could-ebola ... t-so-easy/
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If a terrorist organization were able to obtain a host, gain access to a Category 4 Lab and isolate the virus, they still would have a lot of work to do before they could use Ebola as a biological weapon.
"The process to weaponize a biological agent is complex and multi-staged, involving enrichment, refining, toughening, milling and preparation," de Bretton-Gordon said.
Ebola is not well suited to any of these processes, which are designed to ensure that the biological agent survives the traumatic experience of being fired from a rocket, dropped from an aircraft and submitted to harsh climatic conditions.
"The process to weaponize a biological agent is complex and multi-staged, involving enrichment, refining, toughening, milling and preparation," de Bretton-Gordon said.
Ebola is not well suited to any of these processes, which are designed to ensure that the biological agent survives the traumatic experience of being fired from a rocket, dropped from an aircraft and submitted to harsh climatic conditions.
Summary of the points of the article:
1) Weaponizing it would require a BSL4 lab of which there are currently less than 2 dozen planet-wide.[ Could terrorists build one in secret? I don't see how it could be done or kept secret without help of a government It would be a lot easier to make a secret lab for weaponizing Anthrax- a far better use of their time.]
2)It doesn't survive well outside host fluids. Tweaking its genes to the point where it could (and therefore could be airborne) would be pretty difficult....and of course require extensive research in a BSL4 lab. There are other organisms (like of course Anthrax) which would be much easier to weaponize.
3)Since it's not airborne (and terrorists are not likely to be able to make it airborne) it is not as contagious as a terrorist would want it to be- it can be contained given proper protocol and Islamic terrorists most plausible targets (which is certainly not African countries) have access to those containment methods. Admittedly this is the weakest of the points since the point of terrorism is to spread fear and any cases at all would achieve that, even if it was quickly contained. Nevertheless, if terrorists plan to use bioweapons, there are a lot more effective organisms out there.
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It would not surprise me to find the CIA involved in this hell.
Why, exactly? Other than a generalized distrust of the CIA? What gets accomplished?
17 Sep 2014, 7:37 am
Infections are exploding exponentially. It is only a matter of time before all of Africa is affected and hot spots start turning up in Europe, Asia and the Americas. It could easily turn into a worldwide pandemic. Nobody will win from this disease other than coffin makers.
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I've left WP indefinitely.
17 Sep 2014, 8:21 am
TallyMan wrote:
Infections are exploding exponentially. It is only a matter of time before all of Africa is affected and hot spots start turning up in Europe, Asia and the Americas. It could easily turn into a worldwide pandemic. Nobody will win from this disease other than coffin makers.
Here is an analysis of probability of spread.
http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/arti ... -outbreak/
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The probability of any country to experience EVD case importation depends on the passenger flow from the areas affected by the outbreak, the case numbers and the duration of the incubation time.
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The short-term projection for the international spread of the EVD shows a small probability for countries outside Africa, with the exception of a few European countries. The probability of international spread increases if the Nigerian outbreak is not contained, particularly in Europe and the Americas.
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We show by a modeling effort informed by data available on the 2014WA EVD outbreak that the risk of international spread of the Ebola virus is still moderate for most of the countries. The current analysis however shows that if the outbreak is not contained, the probability of international spread is going to increase consistently, especially if other countries are affected and are not able to contain the epidemic.
On the downside, they are predicting continued spread within and possibly outside Africa.
On the upside, all this spread is done by air travel. The disease can't become rooted outside Africa because its continued existence depends on animal vectors that don't live elsewhere. It travels by plane, kills people, burns out. This means it could be stopped by stopping air travel into affected areas, something that is already being done. This also prevents international health care workers from getting in and they are key to slowing spread. So it's a bit of a precarious balance.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/air-serv ... 1409175631
Quote:
Air France said it would halt flights from Thursday, on instructions from the French government. Paris also told nonessential diplomatic personnel to leave Sierra Leone and Liberia.
It also has the consequence of cutting affected African countries out of the global economy at least temporarily, thus further increasing their poverty which in turn decreases their own internal health care availability. So very many African doctors have already died because they don't have appropriate personal protective gear.
