What will happen to North Korea once Kim Jong Il dies?

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I dont know too much about politics so my bad if this is a stupid question. From what I know he is a crazed powertripping manic but his heir isnt quite as nuts...or maybe thats one of his sons idk. Hes GOT to realize how f*cked up his country is and that people are starving in the millions, or at least malnourished. Whats the point in arming a 1970 era army, its never going to win against a modern military like Americas, Japans, or any European nation- all of which would be against NK together.

DO you think his heir will be more reasonable and more willing to talk to the UN and play nicely, or at least nicer? ...because shelling a South Korean island is just ridiculous, I cant beleive that even happened.I mean if mexico shelled San Diego.... oh son your done, fried beans.

The various organs of the upper-level Korean Worker's Party will vie with on another for more power, resulting in factionalism and a rift that internal and external reformists may be able to take advantage of.

His son will take over, at least in name. The current altercations with the South have been widely interpreted as a way for his son to gain experience and credibility.

I doubt the heir is significantly less psychotic than Kim Jong Il. He is probably as brainwashed as the rest of North Korea, and if not it is probably the big guys in the Communist Party who will wield real power anyways.

Incidentally, the North Korean army could kick the s**t out of South Korea and/or Japan with no relatively little difficutly. The trouble for them is that America is committed to defending South Korea, and nothing on this planet can fight the US military and live.

Seems like it could not get worse, but probably will.

Perhaps I'm too optimistic for thinking that there has to be a few arch-cynics in North Korea playing the "all loyalty to the Eternal President and Supreme Leader and Junche proto-religious ideology" mantra in public, yet secretely knowing how to get things go in reality. I can't help but think that such arch-cynics might make a cynical if not rift producing grab for power in the implicit struggle that may ensue after the current Supreme leader dies.

As to the main question:

No one really knows enough about North Korea to make any sort of definitive determination. Any article that claims to know more is simply making a prognostication (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... sion_drama). There are very few things that can be really interpreted. The country may collapse, it may continue more or less as it, some general could take over and create a Burma style Junta, based on the lack of information, anything is possible..

I felt I had to address this point because it may contain some serious errors. My complaint all hangs on your idea of what exactly it is to 'kick the s**t' out of Japan or South Korea. If your definition is, do large amounts of damage to Japan or South Korea in the opening of such a war, then yes you are right. If however you think that the North's army is in any way a match for the South or Japan, you are mistaken.

The South Korean military is one of the most technologically advanced in the world. In any war, the South would suffer a major strike in the first 24 hours, including chemical and biological weapons. The destruction of Seoul would be a forgone conclusion. Following that, the South Korean military would most likely be able to defend itself against the North (http://www.iiss.org/publications/strate ... -the-kore/). The ROK Army is designed to hold the North. If the United States did not intervene or was delayed, the South Would most likely be able to defend themselves against the North (Ibid).

As to Japan, the primary attack plans of the North entail tanks and artillery, neither of which could be employed against Japan. The Japanese would be well placed to defend themselves also. The Nuclear option would be the only way that NK would be able to have any major effect on the Japanese mainland and the United States would no doubt make sure that NK was sufficiently deterred from such an action.

That sounds pretty devastating for the South. They have more advanced technology, but the North has an advantage in numbers in their military, and the loss of Seoul is a serious problem.


To the extent that their militaries meet. Japan had been kept more or less demilitarized since the conclusion of the Second World War, so I wouldn't expect them to really hold their own in a war against a nation as militaristic as NK.

Luckily neither of those scenarios will ever play out. NK certainly isn't going to attack Japan, and the USA is there to back up South Korea.

I agree with your last comment, it is totally correct.

Agreed, this is basically true. The the location of the NK artillery does not make a preemptive strike all that acceptable to the South or United States.



Actually the JSDF is the 7th largest in the world (over 30% larger than the total spending of NK and SK combined). It is also expanding in capability, rather rapidly. The Japanese spend less than 1% of their GDP on defense, they are the definition of a sleeping dragon.

Yeah, but the Japanese Self Defense Army is only there to protect its own territory and borders. =/ The delimitarization was mostly so that they would not use it for agressive purposes. However, it is very likely that the more "hawkish" of the diet members militate for having the army back in due form. =/

^^^^

Phil777, what you are saying is technically true. The Japanese Defense Guidelines of 1999 provide a large amount of mandate for Japan to be involved in US military engagements. The nature of the weapon systems procured by the JSDF also allows for a good deal of dual use. For example, mid air refueling planes can also be used to extend the range of bombers. The Japanese Navy also has support vessels that allow it to operate outside of its littoral zone.

Well, once the great leader dies, his son will take over. ...nothing like Feudalism and monarchism. ...completely different system.

Well I hope Kim Jong-Un is more liberal than we think having been educated in Switzerland and having the love for "western decadence" like his father. Unfortunately the military would probably thwart any attempt at that.

I'm not sure how things will work out. I think we'll see quite a bit of brinkmanship the next few years as a way to legitimize Kim Jong-Un. It really depends on what South Korea and the US decide. If they decide they've had enough, there will be a war or we'll continue the status quo as it is now until the next crisis.

A war would probably be quick and bloody. US air superiority would completely massacre the North. Their numbers advantage would be pretty much irrelevant, they couldn't even get over the border. The problem is and always has been is that the North could reduce Seoul to rubble with just it's artillery and the wild card being the North's nuclear and chemical weapons. The gloves would come off then, the North Korean nation and people would cease to exist. I doubt China and Russia would want anything to do with North Korea in case of war. It's a scary scenario.

Well, either way, it will probably legitimize any increase in the part of the american budget that goes to defense. If it happens. That and, you can probably bet that the campaign for that war will likely be successful among the masses. Compared to the Middle East's. Heh. Sorry if i'm not being clear enough.

The same thing that happened after Kim Il Sung died though Kim Jong Il will not be named president after his death...

I think the mechanics of succession to the "Dear Leader" are secondary to the real question. How long can a repressive regieme maintain its control over a population that it cannot feed? Even the "Army First" policy is failing to provide enough food for the military, who are, in some cases, provided with little more than rice and salt.

The ability of the Hermit Kingdom to isolate its people from the reality of their relative poverty is not absolute, and absent reform, revolution is a real and present danger.

the heir apparent looks kind of like a simpleton. Hopefully he drives North Korea into the ground.