Will Ron Paul fizzle out?

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Ron Paul looks like he's up for a pretty strong showing first place showing in the Iowa Caucus. But will it last? There's some reasons to think Paul will fizzle out in succeeding caucuses/primaries (and maybe the polls won't even translate come vote time).

• The other candidates have nowhere near given Paul as much of a Republican Party style smearing as they've done to the other candidates. Thus far, they've thought that ignoring him was the best strategy.
• The media, likewise, has so far chosen to ignore Paul with occasional mentions in negative context. An all out assault would yield different results.
• Caucuses are one thing, but the broader electorate that participates in primary events might not be too thrilled about some of Paul's fiscal/social program positions.

All in all, I doubt Paul will secure the Party nomination. There's more of a chance he'll be a third place candidate, like John Edwards was in the 2008 Democratic Primary (minus the extramarital affairs, of course).

Ron Paul's only enemies are corporations and the media. He's done pretty well so far without either being cooperative.

Right now it would not pay for other candidates to attack Paul... "why risk alienating his followers when we can pick them up once he drops out?", would seem to be the thinking.

However, if Paul actually threatened to win a primary, I'm sure they'd all descend upon him like wolves...

In my opinion, Paul appeals to a certain demographic, but he is much too radical to win a primary, let alone a general election, any time soon.

If Ron Paul were elected he would spend his first (and probably only) term vetoing bills many of which would be passed on a veto over ride. Also Ron Paul would put the U.S. in military jeopardy.

But I don't think he can win in any case. Ron is a Strict Constructionist and Congress is determined to shred the Constitution.

ruveyn

^^^ Yes, Paul would always be at odds with hawks on the right and sane people in the middle and on the left.

He won't "fizzle" out as most people that support him support him are almost unwavering in their support. There simply isn't a lot to smear in the GOP campaign really as he's a pretty kind and respected old man who has never been entangled in any political or personal scandals that we know if. Generally, the more people learn about his positions the more they like him. They have been attacking him at full force the last couple weeks over Iran stuff but most people, even Republicans, agree about bringing the troops home and ending these wars. It simply hasn't worked. Then they have tried the earmark stuff which has fallen flat too.

Now, the newsletter thing will probably resurface again but they've been trying to get him with that since he returned to congress in 1996 when Newt Gingrich was backing the democrat against him. Didn't work then, shouldn't work now. Most people admit he didn't write the thing, it doesn't sound like him at all. Honestly; Hannity, Gingrich, Beck, etc. all say worse things almost every week so I can't see how it would excite to many people. It can be pretty easily brushed off as he didn't write it and is actually against racial profiling unlike GOP counterparts. Ron saying Bachmann and Santorum hated Muslims and gays on Jay Leno may prove to be a rather shrewd move. Hannity tried to stir this stuff up again at the last debate and got slapped down.

The GOP establishment really is in panic mode right now since they can't ignore him anymore and they can't turn his supporters off or they'll lose the election. I think they'll try to unify behind Romney as "the only guy that can win" and simply try to beat him out in the big primary states and get the most delegates at the convention. It has to be Romney, he's the only one left that they can honestly say has a chance in the general election. Whoever says Ron is unelectable is pretty much talking out of their butt at this point since besides arguably Romney, he preforms better than the rest of the GOP field. He's the only candidate that can win independents and peel off Democratic voters.

I could see the left leaning media toying with positive coverage of some of Ron's appealing positions such as the war, civil liberties, and opposition to corporate welfare as an alternative to a primary challenge to Obama. I'm under no illusion of what would come in the general election tho, he'll go from the sensible trustworthy Republican in the primary to a monster who wants to push grandma over a cliff and repeal all civil rights legislation.

We'll cross that road when the time comes tho. I think we're at an interesting time in terms of media. A Ron Paul victory would, in my opinion, mark the end of the relevance of the Old Media.

Ron Paul is a member of the John Birch Society.

It already has.

Paul Requestioned on Newsletter

Well, he just picked up a endorsment, and it will probably get him some votes

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPnRXv7nsJo[/youtube]

Seriously?!?!
I did not know that. That might explain those racist articles in his newsletter.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer

"only" .

The economist is pulling for romney and obama so bad. They don't even mention Ron paul once in the entire The world in 2012 issue.

Your flying spaghetti monster is inferior to my flying spaghetti monster, because mine has more meat balls, while your's only has two.

[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=nUTXb-ga1fo[/youtube]

Why can't she just shut-up and sing?

He is not a member of the John Birch Society. That is a total and complete falsehood. He has spoken at events for them and was a friend of the late JBS leader congressman Larry McDonald(a democrat I might add) who was murdered by the Soviets along 268 other people when KAL-007 was shot down in 1983.

Quite frankly, the JBS has gotten smeared for far too long. It's not them that are crazy, it is the Trotskyite/Wilsonian/Neoconservative wing of the Republican party that is crazy. There isn't anything crazy about believing limited government, non-interventionism, and following the constitution.

Last edited by Jacoby on 21 Dec 2011, 1:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer