2016 Primaries - 15 March Thread: FL, IL, MO, OH, NC, NMA

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Today (March 15th) is perhaps the biggest day of all in Primary election season. Contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and, let us not forget, the Northern Mariana Islands.

The last round of polls put Trump and Clinton ahead by double digits in most places, with Kasich having some chance in Ohio and Sanders perhaps in Missouri:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... president/

What really matters is not the votes, but the delegate count, and at the moment on the Republican side Trump has 460 and Cruz is second with 370:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... count.html

For the Democrats Clinton is way ahead of Sanders in delegates.

Delegates up for grabs in this round:

Florida G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL 99 // DEM 246
Illinois G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-MOST 69 // DEM 182
Missouri G.O.P. 52 // DEM 84
Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL 9
North Carolina G.O.P. 72 // DEM 121
Ohio G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL 66 // DEM 159

The Primaries are a bizarre system, there no doubt about that.

The key state will likely be Florida, not just because of its high delegate count, but because it may give some prediction of the outcome in the general election given Florida's large Hispanic electorate.

Clinton has a commanding lead over Sanders among Hispanic voters, but it remains to be seen if this will manifest itself in actual voter turnout. Trump is - conversely - extraordinarily unpopular among Hispanic voters, and this extends to Hispanic Republicans as well, as this fresh Gallup poll shows:



Source: Gallup

In fact - as shown above - Hispanic Republicans have a more favourable opinion of both Democratic candidates than Donald Trump, suggesting that the Democrats have quite the opportunity for winning over some previously identified Republicans if Trump gets the nomination.

It is highly likely that Rubio will drop out if he doesn't win Florida (which the polls suggest that he won't), leaving the GOP field deprived of the candidate with the biggest appeal to Hispanic voters.

I SO wish this was all over.

Trump in all likelihood will win Florida, main question is if Rubio can even hold on to 2nd place. Kasich can win in Ohio but it is really close, it's an openish primary so Trump can attract crossover voters. Missouri should probably be close between Trump and Cruz, close to Cruz's political base but Trump led the 1 poll I seen from there. Trump leads in Illinois, Cruz 2nd but Kasich trying to make a push there. North Carolina Trump looks positioned for another win, Cruz further behind again at 2nd. Kasich and Rubio are done if they lose their homestate, either the establishment will rally to Cruz or accept their fate. Both Florida and Ohio would end it pretty much, winner take all states.

Bernie could do well on the surface, he is polling pretty well in Missouri and Illinois(proportional) but is getting blown out in Florida and North Carolina. Ohio is what it comes down to for him, he needs to overcome the margins again like Michigan. Big test for Hillary, if she can't put away Bernie she has no chance in the general election.

Also Trump wins the Northern Mariana Islands!

Here's another good page to monitor the evening's results:
http://www.nytimes.com/live/primary-ele ... te-counts/

CLOSING TIMES
Fla. First polls close at 7 PM ET.
Ill. Polls close at 8 PM ET.
Mo. Polls close at 8 PM ET.
N.C. First polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
Ohio Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.

That just might be a key for the general election: the Hispanic vote.

Trump just might not do so well in Republican stronghold state Texas, and mixed-bag Florida. He certainly won't do well in California and New York. In order to have a chance in the general election, he'll have to win at least one of those states.

Remember: it's the Electoral votes that count.

i sure hope he splits the GOP along its fault lines.

With 18% returns in Florida, Trump is mopping the floor with Rubio, 46% to 27%. Rubio will be out of the race after today I expect.

Kasich will be out either way. Probably with some parting words who, unlike carson's 'i support trump because he's the most likely gop winner and can't do that much damage in four years' emphatic endorsement, will likely have a good thing or two to say about the current, fire-fueling rhetoric being spouted.

I commend rubio though on putting his ego aside and doing what he felt was best for the country given his current position - encouraging ohio supporters to vote for kasich. Someone who cares more about the country's well being than he does his own status is the move of someone actually fit to be a president.

As per nytimes - "Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton won the Florida primaries, according to The Associated Press."

Bernie getting crushed everywhere

the ohio governor is carrying his constituency