Still confused about climate change...
wittgenstein
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And he is from Norway. I would think he would have some familiarity with the melting happening up north.
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As you can see, the cooling trend is rather steep and dramatic.
Yeah, you're either an idiot with NO background in statistics, or you're trolling.
Erm, guys, I just ran a linear regression analysis on the data and it turns out that things are much worse than any of us feared
Clearly, by 2015, we're all going to freeze to death.
http://i.imgur.com/IHOCFeA.png
wittgenstein
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Walrus just convinced me that humanaut put that red line in the graph.
I guess he wanted a graphic representation of his intuition. Unfortunately, that red line only exists in his own mind and has no relation to reality.
Now thats what I call falsifing data!
_________________
YES! This is me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtdlR4rUcY
I went up over 50 feet!
I love debate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtckVng_1a0
My debate style is calm and deadly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-230v_ecAcM
Yes, I adjusted it based on the radical shift in 1998 to get a true picture of the current trend.
Glacial cycles show that we are still a couple of degrees short of the previous peak.
The geological time scale. We live in extremely cold times, and CO2 concentrations have never been this low.
wittgenstein
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So you are saying that there was more CO2 and the world was hotter when the dinosaurs existed and that proves that there is no correlation between CO2 and global temps!
Also, your red line was just made up and has no real relationship to the data on the graph.
http://dinosaurs.about.com/od/dinosaurc ... arming.htm
I have no idea why that link does not work. Google, "dinosaurs global warming and then click on the link that starts dinosaurs.aboutcom. It should be second from the top.
The link seems to be working now!! !! !!
PS: I think you should give up. Defending a ridiculous argument with an even more ridiculous argument only makes you look more ridiculous.
_________________
YES! This is me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtdlR4rUcY
I went up over 50 feet!
I love debate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtckVng_1a0
My debate style is calm and deadly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-230v_ecAcM
Last edited by wittgenstein on 08 Oct 2014, 7:37 am, edited 8 times in total.
wittgenstein
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Would you claim that because July 4 was so hot, that means that there is no warming trend when one approachs summer?
Your logic about 1998 and global warming is as silly.
So your argument is that there is no global warming because we had a really hot 1998.
_________________
YES! This is me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtdlR4rUcY
I went up over 50 feet!
I love debate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtckVng_1a0
My debate style is calm and deadly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-230v_ecAcM
wittgenstein
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The dinosaurs thrived on CO2 5 times what we have. * Then a giant rock hit the Yucatan peninsula that cooled the environment which killed them.
No one is saying that humans are the only source for CO2, that is an idiotic strawman.
* Note that what was ideal for dinosaurs and their environment is not what is ideal for us and our environment.
_________________
YES! This is me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtdlR4rUcY
I went up over 50 feet!
I love debate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtckVng_1a0
My debate style is calm and deadly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-230v_ecAcM
Perhaps ideal for living things adapted to Jurassic conditions. Too bad there are few of those left.
You're just making yourself look silly. I don't think you are taking this conversation seriously.
Last edited by AspE on 08 Oct 2014, 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ice Ages are one of my hobbies, so I read the old books on climate, and they reported that the ice advanced and retreated several times during the period of 1600 to 1800. It was based on observed changes, and on the dates of grape harvest, and the quality of the wine.
Both sides are right, because both are wrong.
This is a natural cycle that has been recorded.
When it warms and the ice withdraws, the oceans and land warms, and more water vapor is held in the warmer air, which leads to more rain, rain falling at grape harvest time, and early snow.
All warming periods did this.
On the cold side, it takes water vapor to produce snow, and once the land is covered, conditions improve for more snow.
All of you seem off at chart reading, I learned for tracking stocks.
Taking a line topping all of the highs, another under the lows, the trend from 1998 is getting cooler. The Mean, and the Trend are opposed, the Mean shows increase, the Trend shows decrease.
I live in it. New Orleans has the worst weather. Still, while 95 degrees and 95% humitity is suffering, it is buffered, if it gets hotter, it produces more water as vapor, which produces rain, which cools things off.
Things like clouds, night, also cool and produce rain. Hotter or colder, we get rain.
Mostly it just falls. When a cool front comes from the north, runs into our humid air, we get storms, high winds, tornados, and even hail.
While we live in the 90s most of the year, it rarely breaks a hundred, and only when dry air blows in from Texas.
This is the pattern we are now seeing, a hotter world producing more water vapor, and massive rainfall in Arizona, Colorado, Texas, the Northeast, turning to snow early in the Fall.
Snow is warm, really cold air has no water vapor. More snow does not produce record lows, just record snow.
Ice Ages start during hot periods, when the oceans warm, and first produce more rain, but in winter snow, and the blanket of snow produces conditions for more snow. It does not get cold, summers are still hot, until one year the snow does not melt, and Fall comes early, and it snows a lot.
The last wave of ice came out of the warmest period in the last few hundred thousand years.
A warm ocean, a cold plate of land covered in snow, winds and currents from west to east, and the conveyer ran until it snowed six inches a day, for two thousand years. By then the oceans were 450 foot lower, cold and salty, and the forty-five miles of snow that fell had become five miles of ice, and spread under it's own weigh till it was three miles thick.
While most of the snow fell on Canada, and the Baltic, the spreading ice reached Saint Louis, London, and southern Europe. East of the Urals there was no ice.
More recent, following the warm Roman period, the Black Sea and Nile did freeze over in 705, a one time event, and by 900, the Vikings came south because their crops would not ripen, and the Little Ice Age peaked from 1100 to 1300. At the same time in the Americas, the drought started in 700, took down the Mayans and Anasazi, Membris, by 900 and ran to 1500.
While climate history is recent, the date of the grape harvest is important, and a solid record exists. Since 1400 there has been minor patterns where the glaciers advanced and receeded as did the date of the grape harvest. cooling periods report rain at harvest time, and early frost.
Climate has a feedback loop, warm is always followed by cool, and 1998 may well be the peak year.
Drought conditions produce higher heat records, rain and snow do not produce record cold, so it can get warmer as it gets cooler.
Water vapor is also a greenhouse gas. How much the air can hold has to do with how warm it is.
Water vapor by mass is many times the other minor gasses.
CO2, Methane will not be falling as snow before it gets outer planet cold.
Water vapor will fall as rain, sleet, hail, snow, if it is slightly cooled.
Warming will produce more water vapor, clouds, that block sunlight, producing cooler conditions, and rain, snow.
New Orleans is hot and humid at midnight. In the deserts, it gets hotter, 115, but dry, and when the sun goes down it drops fifty degrees. New Mexico air hits Texas Gulf air at night, and the rains pour down, lightning flashes, and you learn why there are big gullies all over.
The water cycle is ruled by, "What goes up must come down".
"Energy cannot be created or destroyed". It can be gathered from the surface of the Pacific, and deposited on a trailer park in Kansas.
A rising Mean and decliing Trend means that Energy will be expelled from the system, which comes as, twice as much rain, snow, tornados, wind, lightning. In local areas it could be ten times as much.
The worst example of this would be the Lessor Dryas Period. In the warming, rising Mean, at the end of the last ice age, a wind storm started, scoured some areas down to bedrock, in others deposited sand to fine silt, which runs from fifty foot of red sand in the west, to 150 foot of white Losse Soils at Vicksburg, and as much as 300 foot in western China. It lasted several thousand years.
It was dry, the air was full of dirt, it was charged, lightning like we have never seen. No one saw the stars for two thousand years, and perhaps the sun and moon.
Lots of snow, Spring rains, and during the last few years I have watched ocean going ships passing through New Orleans at least eighty foot above street level. That was with both spillways up river opened, flooding the backwater swamps farther up river, some farmlands even farther up river, and still it was near the top of the levee running through our city. The hundred year floods came twice in three years.
We have not yet seen the hundred year snow, but by all markers, it is coming. Lake Effect snow fell East of the Great Lakes, to the East Coast, Over the weekend about thirty-five foot fell, houses were crushed, the highways buried, all power and phone lines are out.
wittgenstein
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Why the pause?
http://www.rtcc.org/2014/10/07/extra-he ... ing-pause/
_________________
YES! This is me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtdlR4rUcY
I went up over 50 feet!
I love debate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtckVng_1a0
My debate style is calm and deadly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-230v_ecAcM
wittgenstein
Veteran
Joined: 13 May 2011
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,523
Location: Trapped inside a hominid skull
Both sides are right, because both are wrong.
This is a natural cycle that has been recorded.
When it warms and the ice withdraws, the oceans and land warms, and more water vapor is held in the warmer air, which leads to more rain, rain falling at grape harvest time, and early snow.
All warming periods did this.
On the cold side, it takes water vapor to produce snow, and once the land is covered, conditions improve for more snow.
All of you seem off at chart reading, I learned for tracking stocks.
Taking a line topping all of the highs, another under the lows, the trend from 1998 is getting cooler. The Mean, and the Trend are opposed, the Mean shows increase, the Trend shows decrease.
I live in it. New Orleans has the worst weather. Still, while 95 degrees and 95% humitity is suffering, it is buffered, if it gets hotter, it produces more water as vapor, which produces rain, which cools things off.
Things like clouds, night, also cool and produce rain. Hotter or colder, we get rain.
Mostly it just falls. When a cool front comes from the north, runs into our humid air, we get storms, high winds, tornados, and even hail.
While we live in the 90s most of the year, it rarely breaks a hundred, and only when dry air blows in from Texas.
This is the pattern we are now seeing, a hotter world producing more water vapor, and massive rainfall in Arizona, Colorado, Texas, the Northeast, turning to snow early in the Fall.
Snow is warm, really cold air has no water vapor. More snow does not produce record lows, just record snow.
Ice Ages start during hot periods, when the oceans warm, and first produce more rain, but in winter snow, and the blanket of snow produces conditions for more snow. It does not get cold, summers are still hot, until one year the snow does not melt, and Fall comes early, and it snows a lot.
The last wave of ice came out of the warmest period in the last few hundred thousand years.
A warm ocean, a cold plate of land covered in snow, winds and currents from west to east, and the conveyer ran until it snowed six inches a day, for two thousand years. By then the oceans were 450 foot lower, cold and salty, and the forty-five miles of snow that fell had become five miles of ice, and spread under it's own weigh till it was three miles thick.
While most of the snow fell on Canada, and the Baltic, the spreading ice reached Saint Louis, London, and southern Europe. East of the Urals there was no ice.
More recent, following the warm Roman period, the Black Sea and Nile did freeze over in 705, a one time event, and by 900, the Vikings came south because their crops would not ripen, and the Little Ice Age peaked from 1100 to 1300. At the same time in the Americas, the drought started in 700, took down the Mayans and Anasazi, Membris, by 900 and ran to 1500.
While climate history is recent, the date of the grape harvest is important, and a solid record exists. Since 1400 there has been minor patterns where the glaciers advanced and receeded as did the date of the grape harvest. cooling periods report rain at harvest time, and early frost.
Climate has a feedback loop, warm is always followed by cool, and 1998 may well be the peak year.
Drought conditions produce higher heat records, rain and snow do not produce record cold, so it can get warmer as it gets cooler.
Water vapor is also a greenhouse gas. How much the air can hold has to do with how warm it is.
Water vapor by mass is many times the other minor gasses.
CO2, Methane will not be falling as snow before it gets outer planet cold.
Water vapor will fall as rain, sleet, hail, snow, if it is slightly cooled.
Warming will produce more water vapor, clouds, that block sunlight, producing cooler conditions, and rain, snow.
New Orleans is hot and humid at midnight. In the deserts, it gets hotter, 115, but dry, and when the sun goes down it drops fifty degrees. New Mexico air hits Texas Gulf air at night, and the rains pour down, lightning flashes, and you learn why there are big gullies all over.
The water cycle is ruled by, "What goes up must come down".
"Energy cannot be created or destroyed". It can be gathered from the surface of the Pacific, and deposited on a trailer park in Kansas.
A rising Mean and decliing Trend means that Energy will be expelled from the system, which comes as, twice as much rain, snow, tornados, wind, lightning. In local areas it could be ten times as much.
The worst example of this would be the Lessor Dryas Period. In the warming, rising Mean, at the end of the last ice age, a wind storm started, scoured some areas down to bedrock, in others deposited sand to fine silt, which runs from fifty foot of red sand in the west, to 150 foot of white Losse Soils at Vicksburg, and as much as 300 foot in western China. It lasted several thousand years.
It was dry, the air was full of dirt, it was charged, lightning like we have never seen. No one saw the stars for two thousand years, and perhaps the sun and moon.
Lots of snow, Spring rains, and during the last few years I have watched ocean going ships passing through New Orleans at least eighty foot above street level. That was with both spillways up river opened, flooding the backwater swamps farther up river, some farmlands even farther up river, and still it was near the top of the levee running through our city. The hundred year floods came twice in three years.
We have not yet seen the hundred year snow, but by all markers, it is coming. Lake Effect snow fell East of the Great Lakes, to the East Coast, Over the weekend about thirty-five foot fell, houses were crushed, the highways buried, all power and phone lines are out.
The current AGW is not a result of cycles. Actually, we should be much cooler if it is only cycles happening. At least that is the conclusion of EVERY scientific organization in the world.
_________________
YES! This is me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gtdlR4rUcY
I went up over 50 feet!
I love debate!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtckVng_1a0
My debate style is calm and deadly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-230v_ecAcM
All of you seem off at chart reading, I learned for tracking stocks.
Taking a line topping all of the highs, another under the lows, the trend from 1998 is getting cooler. The Mean, and the Trend are opposed, the Mean shows increase, the Trend shows decrease.
No, that isn't right. For one thing, the trend in the mean is the trend... But it's also bad statistics. I wouldn't boast about learning statistics from trading stocks when the stock market is impossible to beat. Climate scientists are trained in statistics and often work with professional statisticians; most of those opposing your view in this thread have a background in the life sciences, so again are trained in statistics.
"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a microtrend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa ... e-1.384858
Nope, 2005 and 2010 already beat it.
