wittgenstein wrote:
Inventor wrote:
Ice Ages are one of my hobbies, so I read the old books on climate, and they reported that the ice advanced and retreated several times during the period of 1600 to 1800. It was based on observed changes, and on the dates of grape harvest, and the quality of the wine.
Both sides are right, because both are wrong.
This is a natural cycle that has been recorded.
When it warms and the ice withdraws, the oceans and land warms, and more water vapor is held in the warmer air, which leads to more rain, rain falling at grape harvest time, and early snow.
All warming periods did this.
On the cold side, it takes water vapor to produce snow, and once the land is covered, conditions improve for more snow.
All of you seem off at chart reading, I learned for tracking stocks.
Taking a line topping all of the highs, another under the lows, the trend from 1998 is getting cooler. The Mean, and the Trend are opposed, the Mean shows increase, the Trend shows decrease.
I live in it. New Orleans has the worst weather. Still, while 95 degrees and 95% humitity is suffering, it is buffered, if it gets hotter, it produces more water as vapor, which produces rain, which cools things off.
Things like clouds, night, also cool and produce rain. Hotter or colder, we get rain.
Mostly it just falls. When a cool front comes from the north, runs into our humid air, we get storms, high winds, tornados, and even hail.
While we live in the 90s most of the year, it rarely breaks a hundred, and only when dry air blows in from Texas.
This is the pattern we are now seeing, a hotter world producing more water vapor, and massive rainfall in Arizona, Colorado, Texas, the Northeast, turning to snow early in the Fall.
Snow is warm, really cold air has no water vapor. More snow does not produce record lows, just record snow.
Ice Ages start during hot periods, when the oceans warm, and first produce more rain, but in winter snow, and the blanket of snow produces conditions for more snow. It does not get cold, summers are still hot, until one year the snow does not melt, and Fall comes early, and it snows a lot.
The last wave of ice came out of the warmest period in the last few hundred thousand years.
A warm ocean, a cold plate of land covered in snow, winds and currents from west to east, and the conveyer ran until it snowed six inches a day, for two thousand years. By then the oceans were 450 foot lower, cold and salty, and the forty-five miles of snow that fell had become five miles of ice, and spread under it's own weigh till it was three miles thick.
While most of the snow fell on Canada, and the Baltic, the spreading ice reached Saint Louis, London, and southern Europe. East of the Urals there was no ice.
More recent, following the warm Roman period, the Black Sea and Nile did freeze over in 705, a one time event, and by 900, the Vikings came south because their crops would not ripen, and the Little Ice Age peaked from 1100 to 1300. At the same time in the Americas, the drought started in 700, took down the Mayans and Anasazi, Membris, by 900 and ran to 1500.
While climate history is recent, the date of the grape harvest is important, and a solid record exists. Since 1400 there has been minor patterns where the glaciers advanced and receeded as did the date of the grape harvest. cooling periods report rain at harvest time, and early frost.
Climate has a feedback loop, warm is always followed by cool, and 1998 may well be the peak year.
Drought conditions produce higher heat records, rain and snow do not produce record cold, so it can get warmer as it gets cooler.
Water vapor is also a greenhouse gas. How much the air can hold has to do with how warm it is.
Water vapor by mass is many times the other minor gasses.
CO2, Methane will not be falling as snow before it gets outer planet cold.
Water vapor will fall as rain, sleet, hail, snow, if it is slightly cooled.
Warming will produce more water vapor, clouds, that block sunlight, producing cooler conditions, and rain, snow.
New Orleans is hot and humid at midnight. In the deserts, it gets hotter, 115, but dry, and when the sun goes down it drops fifty degrees. New Mexico air hits Texas Gulf air at night, and the rains pour down, lightning flashes, and you learn why there are big gullies all over.
The water cycle is ruled by, "What goes up must come down".
"Energy cannot be created or destroyed". It can be gathered from the surface of the Pacific, and deposited on a trailer park in Kansas.
A rising Mean and decliing Trend means that Energy will be expelled from the system, which comes as, twice as much rain, snow, tornados, wind, lightning. In local areas it could be ten times as much.
The worst example of this would be the Lessor Dryas Period. In the warming, rising Mean, at the end of the last ice age, a wind storm started, scoured some areas down to bedrock, in others deposited sand to fine silt, which runs from fifty foot of red sand in the west, to 150 foot of white Losse Soils at Vicksburg, and as much as 300 foot in western China. It lasted several thousand years.
It was dry, the air was full of dirt, it was charged, lightning like we have never seen. No one saw the stars for two thousand years, and perhaps the sun and moon.
Lots of snow, Spring rains, and during the last few years I have watched ocean going ships passing through New Orleans at least eighty foot above street level. That was with both spillways up river opened, flooding the backwater swamps farther up river, some farmlands even farther up river, and still it was near the top of the levee running through our city. The hundred year floods came twice in three years.
We have not yet seen the hundred year snow, but by all markers, it is coming. Lake Effect snow fell East of the Great Lakes, to the East Coast, Over the weekend about thirty-five foot fell, houses were crushed, the highways buried, all power and phone lines are out.
The current AGW is not a result of cycles. Actually, we should be much cooler if it is only cycles happening. At least that is the conclusion of EVERY scientific organization in the world.
I did not say it was natural, manmade starts with clearing land, for farming, removing trees, building roads, roofs, cities that are heat islands, then burning everything they could find.
However, what ever the cause, the water cycle stays the same. Heat puts more water vapor in the air, cooling causes rain.
We have been pushing the hot end, and getting record rains, floods, storms, and I expect snows to come.
Warm does have the advantage now. Cold will have it's turn.
The Great Lakes had record ice, this year the Mississippi Valley was cool.
Overall the planet is getting warmer, more water vapor being pumped into the air, and at some point that meets winter, it will fall as snow, lots of snow.
I agree we are the cause, I do not agree it will just get hotter.
We are loading up one side of the cycle, the other will come in time.
Climate Change does explain it better.
Adding heat, we drive a more dynamic climate.
Rain falling an inch an hour for two or three hours is great, after ten hours it is a disaster.
Dynamic Climate has Big Data. Record rains, storms, tornados, and less Little Data, regular rainfall that feeds the crops. So we get droughts and floods.
Our biggest fear should be one big late storm, that before harvest dumps several foot of snow from south Canada down to South Dakoda, and through the Mid West grain belt. Besides wiping out food production, it sets the stage for more snow to fall, and when it melts, a thousand year flood down the Mississippi.
If it just got slowly hotter we could deal with it.
Not much we can do about the several billion in China and India who are driving this.
Our patterns of rain and snow fall will change, then change again, there will be record, the sky is trying to kill us, events.
We did mess up the natural cycle and the response is going to be massive.
My prediction would be thirty-five foot of snow from Denver to Washington DC, more farther north, followed by a year without summer. That is three foot of rain falling as snow over a month.
Mega Data Events become more common in a Dynamic System.
09 Oct 2014, 3:05 am
'More warming' is a de facto admission on your part that some warming is happening.
I think he just wants to be the oppositional bad boy. 
