What will happen to North Korea once Kim Jong Il dies?

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Orwell, I am not sure that North Korea is able to easily "kick the ass" of Japan or South Korea. Just having a larger army doesnt mean you can win. Large poorly led armies have been crushed by smaller better led armies. Otherwise, China would have beaten Japan in the early 20th century. Iraq would have beaten the US. The Arabs would have beaten Israel. Russia would have crushed Japan in 1906.
South Korea has a much more modern army than North Korea. Japan has a much larger and more advanced navy than North Korea. Japan has had moderate re-militarization since 1986. The Japanese Navy is one of the largest. And most advanced.
North Korea has two advantages. The North has more number and firepower. The North has the willingness to destroy itself and kill it's own people.
South Korea seems determined to avoid war and is less willing to kill it's own people. Even without the US, South Korea will defend itself. However, the Korean peninsula will be devastated. Both nations would suffer badly.
North Korea will have the advantage of striking first. Then the war will be brutal.

As far as a power succession. North Korea is so secretive that we have no idea if the younger Kim is nuts or just pretending. Perhaps Kim Jong Il isn't really sick. He is only 64 and his father dictator Kim Il Sung lived to be 93. Dictators tend to be tricky and like to keep opponents off balance. Leaders from Tiberius to Castro have pretended to be sick.
As long as China, Russia, South Korea, and the US keep propping them up, they will stay communist. Perhaps, they will take up the communist government-free economics method that changed China.

yeah Im pretty sure the Japanese military is super advanced, though its small. Giant robots and giant dinosaurds included haha....

NOrth Koreas numbers wouldnt even matter because they would get shelled before they landed on Japanese soil. US forces would destroy NKs ships in a hellstorm of fire and shrapnel. South Korea would take some massive damage in the opening of the attack but the US, South Korean and Japanese forces would counter attack on all fronts and destroy NK....assuming they dont use nukes as as last resort. From how theyve been acting the last 50 years I wouldnt put it past them.

Tangomike, I guess you are joking about robots. I have several relatives who worked in Japan in military technology. The Japanese have a small defensive military with excellent professional discipline and advanced weapons. The Japanese Navy is actually large, but is not geared for offensive conquest. The Japanese Navy is for more advanced than North Korea's. Even without the US, they could repel North Korea.
Starting in the Reagan years, the US pretty much told Japan they could re-arm. The biggest reason Japan is not very interested in a large offensive military is that many Japanese politicians are against it. Most of the Japanese public are not interested and do not want the cost of heavy re-arming. Some oppose it fearing a return of militarism.
North Korea appears strong because it's neighbors don't want a war. The only danger to Japan would be a nuclear strike.

I disagree. The issue in Korea is that each side is the polar opposite of the other. SK is technologically advanced and well equipped but it is very inexperienced and their command structure is bureaucratized to the point of uselessness. It was so in the 50's and it is so now.

NK is a mix of 1970's tech for the bulk of their land army, air force and navy and 1990's tech for their missile based weaponry. Unlike SK, their command structure is direct: from Kim to Generals to soldiers. No civilians or paper pushers or laws in between.

NK's entire economy is geared to military. SK's isnt. This means if the war goes beyond 2 weeks NK has a huge advantage.

If it did come to a shooting war I doubt SK could hold the NK back without US help. the US can't help unless China allows it. Kim knows this.

When crazy kim dies I think.. I hope... things will begin to change in NK in the same way they changed in Cuba when Fidel got out of the picture. A slow but gradual gearing of the country towards westernization which erodes away the power of the dictator and its military. Kim's son has one thing going for him: He lived and studied in the west. He knows he is inheriting a country that is a garbage heap in comparison and the whole world aint very pleased at the Kims. Chances are, he will make his mark and solidify his power by bringing positive changes to the country.

If some powergrabbing general or ruling elite don't assassinate him first.

"The Japanese Navy is actually large, but is not geared for offensive conquest. "

The SDF is quite capable of dealing with NK by itself. Its funny how people think that Japan has a small defense force... heck no. They rank up there with SK in terms of weapons and materiel and trained manpower. Most of it is 'hidden' in inactive/reserve units. Unlike SK however, Japan's military doesn't hold back when it comes to dealing hurt. You should look up how they perform in UN training exercises and joint USN drills compared to SK.

Dantac, I agree the Japanese military is stronger than it looks. They have given a fine review by US counterparts. The Japanese Navy is either the third or fourth or maybe fifth largest. They don't employ carriers, so they seem not to be desiring a major blue water force.
Japan and S Korea seem to be wanting to avoid war at all costs. It makes the N Koreans look tougher.

I was joking yes, like you know those cartoons with giant robots.

Really, I cant see modern Japanese reverting to militarism, they are so westernized and pacifist I just dont see it.

Is it possible to shoot down a nuke before it reaches a target? And is that actually worse because then it spreads the fallout from a higher altitude, thus spreading it across a larger area?

I can. Very easily. Their culture is based on discipline and a strict social hierarchy/chain of command. They are pacifistic only in the sense that their nation will not set on the warpath as an aggressor nation or in armed support of another nation engaging in war.

Article 9 of their constitution:
"Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. (2) To accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized."

We know they've ignored (2) at the US request during the Cold War. The SDF is a strong military force. The first part however does not deny them the right of defending themselves against attack. Aka if NK attacks Japan and a state of war exists, the SDF has all the right to send forces overseas to defeat them. If that happens, the SDF will be marching down Pyongyang liberating their kimchee.

As the poster above you mentioned, they do not have a carrier force nor an attack submarine force (neither does China for that matter). Its not needed since the US has them and its the US responsibility to defend Japan against aggression. They do have plenty of ships capable of transporting and supporting troops on the shore and long range mid-air refueling capability (plus 4th and 5th generation American aircraft).



Yes. Thats what the Patriot system is for. Recently they're testing surface to air lasers and airborne lasers (747s with lasers) that can shoot down incoming missiles (including ICBM's). Intercepting a nuke with a missile or laser does not detonate it.. it merely cracks it open and spreads its radioactive material (which is not much per warhead really). Its far better to have a radiation team clean up a few acres of dirt than have an entire city hit by a nuclear explosion.

NK is so far behind in tech that they really have no hope of intercepting any nukes tossed their way.. not to mention they don't have MIRV or ICBM capability. If you think about it, a mere 3 MIRV-capable ICBMs launched from mainland USA can obliterate all NK major cities.


Edit: and for kicks : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5yyWZ2Z6Ps

Actually, Kim Il-Sung was only 82 at the time of his death.

Apart from all those pesky CIA-trained Afghans using the oldest form of impenetrable fortress known to man..the cave... or those pesky Iraqi insurgents with their Macguyvered Land-Mines made of tins and nails and jam and crap that multi-million dollar Predator Drones just can't spot. Or there were those damn Pyjama-wearing gooks with their mass-produced Commie rifles, who had the temerity to hide in holes in the ground in a jungle, or those thrice-accursed Koreans with their huge waves of fanatically indoctrinated cannon-fodder that just roll over positions like a Red Tsunami of meat and just keep on coming no matter what you throw at them...oh.

Somes responses, MacBeth, the US military was held back by "pyjama wearing gooks with mass produced commie rifles" because unlike the Iraqis, the Vietnamese were very disciplined force. Discipline is just as important as weapons. Hussein's vaunted Iraqi Army was better armed than the Viet Kong, but the Vietnamese had discipline. Iraqis did not. Yes, they could fight the well disciplined and better armed Americans since the US had poor leadership and politics got into it. The Vietnamese persevered. The Iraqis had no discipline and just fell apart. The bands of terrorists facing the US now have the foolishness of the US force's "mission" to help them fight the US. The Taliban are indeed using nature's fortress, the cave.
TimTex, my info maybe wrong. I read the old gent was born in 1901.
TangoMike, I figured you were joking.

Dantac, China does now have a carrier force and has attack submarines and nuclear missile submarines. However, they are of unknown quality and their crews are of unknown quality. China recently obtained a Soviet made Variag class carrier and is now reverse engineering a copy. However, China needs to train crews and pilots to put on carriers. A nation just can't buy carriers and expect to have top rate force by magic. China will need years of training before the carriers are a force of consequence. China has a large number of submarines, but their quality is unknown.
Doesn't Japan have a submarine force? Or are the not "attack subs"?

I think it was in the Montreal's "La Presse" that i read something about Kim-jung Un being promoted to general... And that in order to garnish his military career, they would send him to attack South Korea territory... <.<

I was speaking mainly about NK not china when it came to subs and carrier fleets. China has been practicing carrier ops from a mock carrier built on the ground surrounded by a lake for some years now. I wasnt aware of them acquiring that carrier to copy it... it will be interesting to see when they do get it up into production.


They do. 16 diesel subs. No different than those used by most 3rd world countries. Heck, some south american countries use similar subs for coastal defense. They are subs that can attack but they're not 'attack' subs like a Los Angeles SSN... theyre pretty much WW2 subs that have been given modern electronics and a few harpoon missiles.

The choice to use diesel or nuclear submarines has to do with both politics and where they are to be used. The Japanese are clearly anti-nuclear. However the choice to use a diesel submarine also has its deployment merits. South American countries use them for coastal defense but due to the limited ranges and shallow operating depths that Asian countries face the choice to use diesel submarines has its merits. Diesel subs work very well in shallow waters and in areas where they need not go far to find targets. They are also more easily made quieter than their nuclear equivalents. This is due to their smaller size making them more maneuverable and they also provide a smaller sonar object to track.

A good example of the natural advantage of the diesel sub was the RIMPAC exercises in 2000 where HMAS Waller 'destroyed' two USN LA class subs before breaching the defense of the carrier battle group and nearly 'destroying' the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. The Waller remained undetected the whole time in spite of the US battle group knowing exactly what to look for. HMAS Waller also took out two large US amphibious troop ships the next year in waters only 70 metres (230 ft) deep.(Thompson, Roger (2007) . Lessons not learned: the U.S. Navy's status quo culture. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press Pg 28-31)

In relation to the Japanese Navy specifically:

'During exercises with Japanese diesel submarines, We (the US SSN boats) had some problems that led to our boats being beaten several times..... Part of the problem was the inherent quietness of diesel boats that made them very hard to detect. In addition, the Japanese crews were very disciplined - I got the impression that, if told to go to their bunks and stay there without moving, the crew would have done so indefinitely, without complaint. (Ibid)

To clarify, I personally don't think of the Viet-Cong in such derogatory terms. I was being facetious and vaguely mocking the American propensity to insult the enemies they feel are somehow less than them, whilst those enemies systematically defeat or confound them.

Look at this picture of North Korea at night.

http://freemarketmojo.com/?p=524

When dear leader dies that little light in the Northwest corner of North Korea will go out.

ruveyn

I would worry more about what will happen before he dies.