xenon13 wrote:
Unemployment rates and deficits are very closely linked. High unemployment increases deficits. Greenspan in the late 1990s was forced by financial crises to ignore NAIRU targets this caused unemployment rates to drop way below NAIRU and this cut the deficits. Otherwise he would have fought for the NAIRU targets keeping unemployment over 6% possibly with large interest rate hikes.
Greenspan in his two decades of statements as Federal Reserve chairman, starting all the way back under Reagan, almost never mentioned targeting unemployment. He always mentioned inflation. The truth is, as a monetarist, he didn't buy into worrying about unemployment much at all. He certainly didn't pay as much attention to "NAIRU" as you do.
Bernanke, in contrast, pays way too much attention to unemployment, believing he can do something about it despite having no control over fiscal policy.
The fact is, the Fed can do little about unemployment. The Fed's been pumping huge amounts of money into the economy for nearly a year now in what's termed Quantitative Easing II, but the result has been that unemployment rates - except for a brief drop right after the Bush tax rates were extended - have remained steady. The extra money has only resulted in more inflation, not less unemployment.
That is exacerbated by Obama's profligate spending. Obama's spending eats up new private saving, leaving nothing for private investment. No investment means no new jobs and continued high unemployment.
Getting back to the topic of the thread, what's needed is drastic reductions in federal spending. That will free up capital for private investment and job creation. Only then will most of the people who have been thrown out of work be able to find jobs again.
It would have been great if Obama had agreed to those major cuts - including the necessary cuts in entitlements, since they make up the majority of federal spending - in the 2011 budget deals. Unfortunately Obama gave up virtually nothing, protecting special interest spending every step of the way.
That means that more cuts are necessary now - and they need to be big ones. If Obama is willing to make them now, that's great. If not, then using the debt limit to force him to make them is the next best solution.