Raptor wrote:
We're going to have a war with them sooner or later. Do it now and get it over with.
We don't really have a major interest in Ukraine and Russia is in fundamental decline, there is no impending doom. The biggest worry is that Putin keeps legitimizing balkanization, based on Russia's demographics, he is dancing with the devil on that.
Kraichgauer wrote:
While it might seem sensible to just partition Ukraine, and let Russia have the Crimea and adjacent areas, the fact is, Putin has stated in the past the Ukraine is not a real country, and is just a province of Russia. That being the case, I don't think Putin would stop with the Pro-Russian territories, but would use protecting the Pro-Russian element there as a pretext to gobbling up the whole Ukraine after getting his foot in the door. This is very much a reenactment of Hitler invading Czechoslovakia with the pretext of protecting ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland.
He is not going to gobble up the entirety of Ukraine. It looks like he is going to make a big effort to separate Crimea but there are reasons to be worried about his ability to accomplish that easily (
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ating.html).
He will most likely attempt to do the same as he accomplished in Georgia. Break off the pro-Russia parts and then make a play for political control in the capital. The big issue is not that the west keeps getting involved its that event though we have more or let him have his way in Ukraine, he still keeps offering the people there deals they don't really want to accept. Eastern Europe need not be zero sum, but Putin sees it that way and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for him.
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