538: GOP is slight favorite to win control of Senate

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LKL
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24 Mar 2014, 11:55 pm

You didn't specify political parties, and I doubt that he represents a significantly lesser proportion of gun owners than the guy in your article does for Democrats.

Given that I've seen you argue that the Libertarian Party platform isn't really representative of libertarians, though, I don't suppose I should be surprised that you wouldn't accept anything as representing your point of view.

Dox47
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25 Mar 2014, 4:16 am

LKL wrote:

Given that I've seen you argue that the Libertarian Party platform isn't really representative of libertarians, though, I don't suppose I should be surprised that you wouldn't accept anything as representing your point of view.

You forget, I belong to neither the Libertarian party nor the NRA, so why should I accept that either of them speaks for me when they do not? Most libertarians don't belong to the party, most gun owners don't belong to the NRA, so it's ignorant if not outright intellectually dishonest to try and claim that either group speaks for the whole, they only speak for their own organizations.

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LKL
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25 Mar 2014, 6:27 pm

It's just as ignorant and/or dishonest to pretend that they don't represent major veins of sentiment amongst libertarians and/or gun owners, or that your personal feelings are more representative of libertarianism in general or gun owners in general.

Dox47
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25 Mar 2014, 10:45 pm

LKL wrote:

As a libertarian and a gun owner, I travel in circles that bring me into contact with both kinds of people, and so can speak with some authority as to just how out of sync the NRA is with Joe gun owner or the Libertarian party is with the average libertarian, unlike, say, you.

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TheGoggles
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25 Mar 2014, 11:21 pm

Dox47 wrote:

^
Did you bother to read my linked article? That was most definitely a democratic spokesman not taking the news well and coming down on Nate Silver, who had been previously showered with praise when he was calling 2012 for Obama.

Whoa, political strategists don't like it when a guy says they're going to lose? Stop the presses, everyone. We've got a massive breaking story over here.

beneficii
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25 Mar 2014, 11:31 pm

Either way, Nate Silver has been pretty good at calling elections, going all the way back to 2008. I remember how he was among the first to call the GOP winning the House in 2010, so I definitely give him some serious weight here in 2014.

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LKL
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26 Mar 2014, 12:27 am

Dox47 wrote:

LKL wrote:

How convenient for you. Your 'experience' counts, and that of pretty much any libertarian or gun owner who says anything in public on the internet or in the press, does not. Don't forget that you've gotten into fights with other libertarians and other gun owners - some of whom were perfectly in agreement with sources I cited - here on WP.

sonofghandi
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27 Mar 2014, 2:15 pm

Jacoby wrote:

The only realistic chance of the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate is to pick up seats in Georgia and Kentucky.

Actually, the only realistic chance the Dems have is:

1. Get all the new voting laws struck down prior to the elcetion.

2. Find a source of funding equal to what the Koch brothers pump into the Republican side.

AND

3. Find a way to get their voters to the polls, because hope (the Dems go to strategy) does not motivate the way fear (the Republican go to strategy) does.

OR

1. A few highly visible Republicans do and/or say a boatload of horsesh*t to sink their own boat.

So the Repubs will likely take control of the Senate. Which will only serve to further alienate the majority of the demographics in this country even further.

To be honest, if Obama wasn't such a tool about so many things, his approval ratings wouldn't be dragging his party down with him.

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Jacoby
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27 Mar 2014, 3:06 pm

sonofghandi wrote:

Jacoby wrote:

The only realistic chance of the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate is to pick up seats in Georgia and Kentucky.

You're buying into a false narrative and that will play a big part in why the Democrats will lose big this November. It can't be us or our failed policies, it's the Koch brothers and voting laws! Never mind the Dems have actually outspent the GOP by a pretty wide margin the last couple cycles, the voters aren't rejecting us!

The GOP has pick ups pretty much guaranteed in South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia. Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina all lean Republican. The map has been expanded to Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Iowa, and I think it will just get bigger when campaign season starts. The GOP needs to pick up 6 seats to take back the majority.

Dox47
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27 Mar 2014, 10:28 pm

LKL wrote:

Did I say that my experience was somehow more valuable than other libertarians and gun owners? I'm pretty sure I just said it was more valid than yours as you are neither of these things and have yet to demonstrate a compelling grasp of either subject. Further, the fact that I don't agree with every libertarian and gun owner out there only reinforces my point that groups like the NRA and the Libertarian Party don't speak for anyone but their own members, as the groups of which they are small parts are much more of a spectrum of opinions than a homogenous bloc. Why you're even bothering with this little pissing match is lost on me, you're not equipped for it either way and I don't see the point beyond taking a shot at me.

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DevKit
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27 Mar 2014, 11:02 pm

GGPViper wrote:

I actually hope that Republicans win the Senate. It will accelerate the downfall of the GOP in its current form.

The Republicans have been spared the full brunt of political backlash against their current policy platform by the fact that they haven't actually been in power since Bush Jr.

If they actually try to implement some of the major policies from their current policy platform (on LGBT or abortion issues), they will be completely annihilated in the presidential election in 2016.

You mean kind of like how Obama illegally changed Obamacare to be more palatable for as long as he is in office? I could give a s**t less about so called LGBT issues one way or the other compared to whats in that crap. TBPH I dont care about LGBT issues at all. I am not going to support gay rights if no one is championing the rights of people with mental disabilities.

sonofghandi
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28 Mar 2014, 8:34 am

Jacoby wrote:

You're buying into a false narrative and that will play a big part in why the Democrats will lose big this November. It can't be us or our failed policies, it's the Koch brothers and voting laws!

That is the biggest portion. Expensive smear campaigns are extremely effective.

Jacoby wrote:

Never mind the Dems have actually outspent the GOP by a pretty wide margin the last couple cycles,

You have not included super-PAC funding in those numbers. If you did, you would see that Republican candidates benefitted much more than the Dems, especially in terms of attack ads.

And which failed policies are you referring to? There really aren't that many policies thanks to blatant obstructionism.

I am not saying that the Dems are doing a great job; far from it. I am just saying that the Republicans have become much more twisted up in their own self professed exceptionalism that they are worse (at the moment).

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The_Walrus
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28 Mar 2014, 2:27 pm

DevKit wrote:

GGPViper wrote:

You mean kind of like how Obama illegally changed Obamacare to be more palatable for as long as he is in office? I could give a sh** less about so called LGBT issues one way or the other compared to whats in that crap. TBPH I dont care about LGBT issues at all. I am not going to support gay rights if no one is championing the rights of people with mental disabilities.

People are championing the rights of people with mental disabilities. I think you'll find that LGBT rights campaigners are more likely to support disability rights than homophobes and transphobes, though I have no evidence to back this up.

Dox47
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29 Mar 2014, 2:27 pm

Oh look, a couple of nobodies in the Democratic party named Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer are taking shots at Nate Silver over his predictions:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/harry-re ... -the-time/

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Jacoby
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29 Mar 2014, 3:53 pm

Dox47 wrote:

Oh look, a couple of nobodies in the Democratic party named Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer are taking shots at Nate Silver over his predictions:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/harry-re ... -the-time/

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAeMtcURg0[/youtube]

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