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Tim_Tex
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10 Oct 2016, 5:54 pm

UncannyDanny wrote:
Well, I'm not very fond of Trump, anyway. That guy is a negative influence to the US.


Neither am I, but I am concerned that even those in the GOP who disavowed him in the strongest terms will be negatively impacted by him. The GOP will permanently be known as the Trump Party, and it will be assumed that every politician with an R next to their name agrees with him and wants to emulate him.


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ASPartOfMe
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10 Oct 2016, 6:34 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Trump has to hope that the polling is strongly underestimating him. There's a good chance he's secretly winning in North Carolina - we need to see where Johnson's votes go. Ohio is still in reach. Florida is going to be hard unless there's something seriously wrong.

The good news for Trump is it can't get much worse. Clinton's going to struggle to hang on in Arizona and Iowa, and in theory it's easier for him to re-claim Ohio than for Clinton to win Georgia from this position.

I also think he might benefit from people's low expectations. If he suddenly manages to present himself as Mitt Romney in 2012 and actually have thought-out policies, then the marked improvement would win votes. But that's extremely difficult this late in the game.

Dox47 wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
I would not be shocked if Trump won, Trump won the popular vote and lost the electoral college, or the Republicans worst nightmare comes true, Democrat landslide at all levels.


I think a Trump victory is actually the Republican nightmare, 4 years of being blamed for every nutty thing he does and says.

I also think they'd be more confident about being in the White House from 2020-24 (and then 24-28) if Clinton wins now. It's hard to see either party nominating such weak candidates again, so right now it seems a good bet that the next president will only get one term even with the incumbent effect. Get someone electable at the top of the ticket against President Clinton sounds like their best chance of reasserting their dominance.

The trouble would be the Supreme Court.


Remind you folks what I speculated was not just a Hillary landslide but a Democrat landslide at multiple levels of government. In that scenario thay are either out of a job or have no policy influence at all. Combine the supreme court with the 2020 census/gerrymandering would make historians look upon 2016 in a similar way as 1932.

For those of us complaining about political correctness or SJW's, we would look back at 2016 as the good old days if that scenario plays out.


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TheSpectrum
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10 Oct 2016, 6:44 pm

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Just take a look at Brexit. The polls were doctored to put Remain 10 clear points ahead the night before the voting started, and Remain lost by 2%. Think about it.


This. I've said it before, today the majority of polls are commissioned in order to influence opinion, not measure it.

Yes, they are there to validate their opinion, not represent the overall consensus.


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10 Oct 2016, 7:03 pm

A realistic way for Trump to win? If the Trump camp have one mother of a bombshell on Hillary held in reserve and they drop it right before the vote. Or if they're just really strong at the end when all the Johnny-come-latelys start paying attention. Not out of the question if the Hillary camp get complacent thinking it's in the bag.

Other than that, maybe he can run into a burning building and save some children and a couple of cats. :mrgreen:

But I'm not counting him out, that man has a remarkable ability to twist the rules, surviving things that would have brought just about anyone else down. Even this latest thing feels like a fluke, THIS is what penetrates his armour and does the damage? It's mild compared to some of his other stuff, and those things happened weeks and months ago, not a decade.



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10 Oct 2016, 7:28 pm

For a segment of his supporters, Trump's tasteless boast that he could shoot someone in the street and they would still support him is probably true, I think, though only for a segment.

The question that worries me the most (apart from the horror of a Trump presidency) is how large that segment is, and what that group of his supporters might feel emboldened to do in the wake of Trump winning, apart from the rejoicing that typically occurs. Would it unleash unprecedented levels of bullying of Muslim and Mexican children, for example. Would you see a huge surge of hate speech and related crimes as happened after Brexit? Would law and order be able to constrain and prosecute the offenders? Would that become an impossible and overwhelming task? Who else might be subject to harassments in that scenario? Trump has modelled a set of hostile behaviours that may appear normalised to some of the "anything Trump does is ok with me" segment of supporters, I hope not though I genuinely think it is a real risk. I am not suggesting (least you missed it) that all Trump supporters pose that danger.



LoveNotHate
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10 Oct 2016, 11:57 pm

They've been saying -- 'it's over for Trump' -- for months.

Somehow their polls are failing them.



bloose78
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11 Oct 2016, 12:32 am

The notion that Trump would drop out of the race did not reason with me for one second. I don't really like him but if you've made it this far why stop. I honestly just blew off what he said because he's said s**t like this his entire campaign. Besides, if there's anyone that knows when to pull out, it's the Donald. However I think the media is trying to create this spin that the Republicans all of a sudden now wanted to stop supporting Trump. And that isn't true as the "establishment" has grudgingly supported him, not supported him.



ASPartOfMe
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11 Oct 2016, 6:42 am

B19 wrote:
For a segment of his supporters, Trump's tasteless boast that he could shoot someone in the street and they would still support him is probably true, I think, though only for a segment.

The question that worries me the most (apart from the horror of a Trump presidency) is how large that segment is, and what that group of his supporters might feel emboldened to do in the wake of Trump winning, apart from the rejoicing that typically occurs. Would it unleash unprecedented levels of bullying of Muslim and Mexican children, for example. Would you see a huge surge of hate speech and related crimes as happened after Brexit? Would law and order be able to constrain and prosecute the offenders? Would that become an impossible and overwhelming task? Who else might be subject to harassments in that scenario? Trump has modelled a set of hostile behaviours that may appear normalised to some of the "anything Trump does is ok with me" segment of supporters, I hope not though I genuinely think it is a real risk. I am not suggesting (least you missed it) that all Trump supporters pose that danger.


Bullying in general has been going up according to some reports. After his election there would be a spasm of it, and in the parts of the country his supporters control attitudes towered bullying will start going back to the it is a normal part of growing up and if you can not handle it it is your fault for bieng weak idea. But this is probably going to happen even if he loses because the genie is out of the bottle. If he loses there will be a violent reaction encouraged by Trump from people convinced the election was rigged. The "establishment republicans" will either lose to Trumpist challengers in the primaries or be intimidated or killed by them. Political violence in America has not recently occurred not when a group feels hopeless, but after they gained something (see 1960's riots after civil rights gains, 2010's riots after Obama's election). The white lower middle class, middle age conservative did no more then complain as they lost political, economic, and cultural influence to younger people and diversity. With Trump they suddenly have been at the center of national attention. Combine the "snatching" away of hope with conspiracy thinking and you have a prescription for trouble.


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 11 Oct 2016, 6:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

B19
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11 Oct 2016, 6:52 am

I think you are right about the genie out of the bottle now whatever the result of the election. Fully realising at this moment how true what you wrote is makes me feel immensely sad.



ASPartOfMe
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11 Oct 2016, 6:56 am

I appreciate your sympathies.


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20 Oct 2016, 3:40 am

... Well, with the third and final scheduled debate between Trump and Clinton now being over, I wonder if the question mark in the title of this thread should be replaced by an exclamation mark.

If we look at the initial reactions from both left and right in the US, Donald Trump seems to have generated the October Surprise to end all October Surprises by refusing to accept the election result (which, as this point, moves closer and closer to a significant victory for Hillary Clinton).

I'm guessing we'll be seeing a somewhat similar pattern than after the 2nd debate now, with more high profile GOP politicians pulling their support for Trump in the coming days.

I guess - given Trump's obvious low opinion of the US electoral system - we should also expect the media to keep a very close eye on the so-called "poll watchers" that Trump wants to use to expose bad hombres and nasty womenineligible voters during the election.



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20 Oct 2016, 4:00 am

I can't help but think there will be blood no matter who wins.



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20 Oct 2016, 4:08 am

There are some responsible Republican leaders, who will be desperate to repair the vast damage Trump has done to the party and they may well advocate loudly for acceptance, restraint and dignity.



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20 Oct 2016, 4:20 am

B19 wrote:
There are some responsible Republican leaders, who will be desperate to repair the vast damage Trump has done to the party and they may well advocate loudly for acceptance, restraint and dignity.

but will enough of the right people listen to them?



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20 Oct 2016, 4:35 am

The writing is pretty much on the wall now, so there is time for his general supporters to adjust to the fact that Trump is facing a loss and their anger might peak now and diminish from here. The crazies are crazy whatever happens, though they are always around.



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20 Oct 2016, 4:37 am

I won't be able to let down my guard unless the senate is back in dem hands as well. because without that, her presidency will be stillborn.