Climate change and Nationalism Surge

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The chief economist of the world bank says that by 2050 their as estimated to be around 200 million climate refugees fleeing from what we now know as the arc of instability. And I think it is the IPCC estimated that in that same year, the amount of Carbon dioxide will be the most it has ever been in 24 million years. If that is our future won't we see nationalistic fervor and fear of different cultures be inflamed to a horrific level?

The Arc of Instability is a proposed, interconnected chain of politically unstable nation states in the Asia-Pacific region. The term came into vogue in the late 1990s, proving especially popular with Australian politicians and journalists. The Arc is also sometimes to referred to as balkanisation in a modern, Asia-Pacific context.

The phrase "Arc of Instability" has been used by the National Intelligence Council to describe "a great arc of instability stretching from Sub-Saharan Africa through North Africa, into the Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and South and Central Asia, and parts of Southeast Asia."

Definition and member states

The term is used to suggest that the members of the Arc are interconnected to the point that destabilisation within one country can have major political, military and economic repercussions in neighbouring countries. For example, Australian media and politicians claimed the destabilisation of the Solomon Islands was the result of a copycat or domino effect of the 2000 Fijian coup d'état.

In August 2006 Australian Defence Minister Brendan Nelson gave a speech to parliament on the topic of the Arc. Along with dropping Indonesia from the list of states in the Arc, he said:

We cannot afford to have failing states in our region. The so-called 'arc of instability', which basically goes from East Timor through to the south-west Pacific states, means that not only does Australia have a responsibility in preventing and indeed assisting with humanitarian and disaster relief, but also that we cannot allow any of these countries to become havens for transnational crime, nor indeed havens for terrorism.

There is no official list of member states in the Arc, however it has traditionally been accepted to include South-East Asian and Oceanic nations such as Papua New Guinea, The Solomon Islands, East Timor, Indonesia and Fiji.

An arc of instability stretching across Africa’s Sahel region, an area of strategic interest for the United States and its allies, is plagued by violent extremist organizations (VEOs). These organizations, including Boko Haram, al Qaeda, and other terror groups, have metastasized and present a serious threat to regional stability. Now these VEOs are transitioning. Under sustained pressure from French and regional security forces, and reeling from the loss of senior leaders, many of these groups feel backed into a corner. Despite setbacks, the groups continue to plague the region. To enhance policymakers’ understanding of these threats and how to respond to them, CSIS experts from the Africa Program and Transnational Threats Project conducted field-based and scholarly research examining the broad range of factors at play in the region. This research provides little ground for optimism. Chronic underdevelopment, political alienation, failed governance and corruption, organized crime, and spillover from Libya help foster and sustain violent extremists throughout the Sahel.