What will happen to North Korea once Kim Jong Il dies?

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MacBeth, I figured you were joking about the Viet Cong. Though that is how they were described. They may not have been humanitarians, but who was? They had 100 times the discipline of the Iraqis.
TangoMike, I am not sure the Chinese have yet started their reverse engineered copy, but they supposedly took delivery or will soon of a Soviet Variag carrier. As for Japanese submarines. Though they are diesel, I am assuming they may be of high quality with top rate crews. They would be superior to NK subs. I believe NKorea has Soviet diesel subs and minisubs.

Yeeeaaaah, can we not use the term "gook" to describe Vietnamese people? Thanks.

WW3 isn't going to start because Kim is gone. China needs their precious ATM machine. The north threatens, and gets what it wants through "peace" process", and it's funneled into China. And Kim gets his cut, while slowly investing in some industry to keep the illusions of growth and progress.

If things such and are pretty primitive here in the REAL China, things must REALLY suck there. And I've crapped in a horse stall like washroom in a gas station, and serenated by the urine of Cangzhouers nightly (block houses, standard for the poor, lack pluming they take their business to public outhouses! What little resources are trying to keep the illusion of a functioning city, but things are broken down even here in Shanghai (compared to say Macau, or Hong Kong). The Chinese use ancient electronic devices such as heaters, power boxes, depalitated power lines tangled in trees! This so called number 1 economy is just smoke and mirrors. It's China catching up. While the rest of the world is already up. That's why they use China, because they can't make profit or insane profit in their already built homelands.

So North Korea, must really really really be backwards, as it can't make any attempt to slowly recover.

Note: I am not saying war in inevitable, it is unlikely in my view. I am taking issue with parts of Dantac's statement due to the fact that I believe it argues several bad points.

Your statement does not deal with the fact that the ROK armed forces have increased in capability in experience since the fifties. For example, the deployment to Vietnam, the 71-75 Modernization plan, the Eight-Year National Defense Plan 74-81 and the Self-Reliance plan of the last decade. The ROK armed forces remain one of the most capable on the planet.

It is also worth highlighting how advanced the ROK armed forces actually are, particularly the army. Due to the fact that the ROK faces conventional military war-fighting scenarios the army puts a high premium on firepower. In some ways the ROK has more firepower than US equivalent units. For example, See the Daewoo K11 and the K2 Black Panther.



Doctrine is only one half of a command and control equation. Doctrinally the ROK Armed Forces represent a much more capable system than you are portraying here. The ROK Armed Forces represent what is refereed to as a 'hardened and networked' structure. The North is somewhat unknown; Regime Collapse under bombardment is a real possibility. The destruction of the communications link between the NK leadership and troops would most likely be highly vulnerable to the ROK Armed Forces's capacity to attack far behind the front line. With the link separated command and control would break down quickly. The North is aware of this vulnerability and this is why the majority of their conventional and biological/chemical firepower is designed to do maximum damage within the first 24 hours.



This is not correct. The Chinese would most likely not back the North in a full blown shooting war, nor would they directly oppose any US intervention (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/no ... fied-korea). It is quite likely that in the event of war or regime collapse the Chinese would seek to settle its territorial disputes with the North.

SillyCat, from what you said, I take it you lived in China/or still do. I realize that dictatorships like PR China tend to exaggerate their successes. There are reports here that China has uneven progress. Much of the vast, vast population is still Third World.
My one grandfather was half Manchurian and was born near Mongolia. He was somewhat wealthy and later worked in Shanghai. He lived in China from 1906 to 1933. He described to me the poverty back then. The desperation would lead to murder and cannibalism of corpses. There was gang violence and the beggars caught in the fighting would simply wait for the robbers to kill them. They did not resist because they preferred to die rather than live. He left as the Japanese were getting more aggressive.
I doubt it is that bad now. Or is it?
One interesting thing about PR China. They brag about their economic development and modernization. Yet unlike most dictatorships, they don't brag about their military. They act like they are weak and backwards. Starting with Deng Xiouping, Chinese leaders will publicly say that they have a weak military. They are the opposite of military braggarts like NKorea and Iran and Baathist Iraq. Are they really the opposite of what they say.? Did Deng Xiouping believe in acting weak, while being strong.? I have learned that the guy who brags the least in the toughest.

Yes. Lets also edit Mark Twain's Huckleberry Finn of all uses of the term "n****r", thus rendering the point of the novel utterly void. We should probably re-dub Platoon and Full Metal Jacket so that every time someone says "gook" it says "person of Vietnamese ethnic origin" as well. Never mind historical accuracy or context eh? Who needs that?

I do not believe PanoramaIsland was making a statement about history, but one deeply grounded in the present day. I think it was also pointed at you not Mark Twain, Oliver Stone or Stanley Kubrick.

I just had an inspiration. Let us rename Herman Melville's novel about a white whale --- Mobey Private Parts.

ruveyn

Kim jung un will be president

North Korea could be devastating for South Korea, but not Japan. Superiority of number mean nothing for crossing the sea; the technological superiority of Japan would destroy any North Korean troop transports before they could reach the shores.

The only things that is good for North korea is the infantry really; for tanks, ships and planes superior number mean little against superior technology. So the strength of South korea would be to resist a land invasion, as for infantry superior technology don't mean that much. (For now, in a few decades when army will (likelly) use fullerene armors the North Korean army will be on every point completely obsolete.)

What highwayman said. <.<

superiority of technology means they have no realistic prospects of winning a war almost no matter who they fight as the world would quickly be drawn into the conflict,

South Koreas , military by spending is 4 times larger than the north.

I've been speaking to a guy on Flickr who has been to North Korea. He took loads of photos while he was there. You may wish to look through them.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/moreska/

I have a theory that if south korea just set up a buffet at the border the north korean army would defect.

South Korea's army will eat North Korea's for breakfast. The real problem is knowing what China will do.