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The 28-point plan hammered out by US and Russian envoys and put to Ukraine this week came with a deadline and an implicit threat: Sign up or face the risk of being abandoned.

US President Donald Trump said Friday that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky would “have to like” the US plan, suggesting he is in no mood to negotiate.

Since then, Trump has sent mixed messages, saying the plan was not his final offer but adding that if Zelensky did not accept it he could “continue to fight his little heart out.”

Zelensky recognized the stark choice in a somber speech to the nation on Friday, casting the plan as a choice between losing the United States as an ally and giving in to Russian demands, which many of the 28 points cater to.

If Kyiv were to lose US support, the consequences would be grave for its weapons supplies and access to intelligence, compounding existing crises: a lack of soldiers, a financial crunch and a deepening lack of confidence among Ukrainians in a presidency tainted by scandal.

Above all, rejecting the proposal would herald an existential separation from the US, with massive strategic implications for Ukraine and its European backers. It would risk the US turning its back on the conflict altogether, reneging on pledges of a security guarantee for Ukraine and telling not just Zelensky but the Europeans: You’re on your own.

Weapons pipeline
Not getting US weapons would hurt Ukraine, but not as much as it would have done three years ago. That’s partly because the conflict has changed so much: Tanks, anti-tank weapons and armored vehicles now play a subordinate role to the ever-present drones.

And it’s partly because the weapons pipeline from Europe is now bigger than that from the US. From the start of the war through June 2025, Europe has allocated at least $40 billion in military aid, $5 billion more than the US.

The loss of US weaponry would most of all affect Ukrainian air defenses, which include Patriot batteries and missiles. Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded for more air defenses from the US, but the Patriots are in short supply. Even if the US cut off its own supply of missiles and spare parts, it might allow European and other allies to continue helping.

Ukraine has also had a limited supply of highly effective US ATACM missiles.

The Trump administration has shown greater willingness to sell US weapons to a European-financed fund known as the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) worth some $90 billion. But it could punish Ukraine by abandoning the program – if Kyiv rejects the plan.

On the upside, Ukraine has built a formidable drone and missile industry, even if it needs scaling-up. Ukrainian officials have said that 90% of the drones it uses are made in Ukraine.

Intelligence sharing
The US briefly stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine back in March, after the infamous Oval Office encounter between Trump and Zelensky.

The exact nature of that cooperation has never been publicly divulged but likely includes early warning of Russian missile launches and real-time analysis of Russian troop movements, critical at a time when Russian forces are making advances on several parts of the frontlines.

In October, Zelensky acknowledged that all of Ukraine’s defenses against Russian missiles – Patriot, NASAMS and the IRIS-T – would have limited data without US intelligence, meaning there wouldn’t be enough information to ensure defense.

US intelligence has also been used by Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, including against military and energy infrastructure, Ukrainian sources have told CNN.

The Europeans are improving their access to such intelligence, but it takes years to build and coordinate such capabilities.

Men and money
Ukraine’s greatest problems are more homemade and couldn’t be fixed by any number of US tanks or missiles. Its military has a manpower crisis. Tens of thousands of soldiers went AWOL in the first seven months of this year alone.

Many infantry units are severely under-staffed, but reducing the draft age from 25 is seen as a political landmine.

Should Kyiv reject the blueprint, US backing for its solvency may be another casualty. The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine needs $65 billion in budget support over the next year alone. The European Union has been struggling to agree to a way to use frozen Russian assets as some sort of loan guarantee.

The 28-point plan – the work of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian official Kirill Dmitriev – threatens to blow up the delicate negotiations on using those assets.

“$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture.”

“Frozen European-held Russian funds will be unfrozen,” the plan insists – even if those funds are beyond US control and Europe is not party to the plan.

Security guarantees
The US-Russian plan (point 5) says that “Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees,” but no detail is offered.

Language such as: “It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries” (point 3) will not inspire confidence in Kyiv.

Some reports suggest that according to an annex to the plan “a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed armistice line into Ukrainian territory shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.”

CNN has been unable to confirm such a clause.

Without precise and detailed guarantees, endorsed by the US Congress so they have the force of law and backed by the threat of sanctions, it’s hard to see why Zelensky would accede to the bare outline in the plan.

But rejection would bring existential risk.

Long before Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dream was to split Europe from the US. A favorite theme of the Kremlin since Trump took office has been to contrast Trump’s efforts to settle the conflict with the “war-mongers” in Europe.

The 28-point plan nods to this US administration’s semi-detached view of NATO, the cornerstone of peace in Europe for 80 years.

It says “a dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States,” exchanging the role of ally for one of arbitrator.

European leaders, along with Japan and Canada, came as close as they could to a polite rejection of the plan in a statement on Saturday, saying it “requires additional work.”

They added they were “concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces,” which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to attack.

European officials are meeting with their Ukrainian and US counterparts in Geneve Sunday for more detailed talks on the blueprint.

Some Europeans think this is a cathartic moment.

“We have been told repeatedly and unambiguously that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, will be Europe’s responsibility. And now it is,” former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on X Saturday.

A watershed moment
Just one month ago, Zelensky said that in a phone call with Trump, he had “discussed opportunities to bolster our air defense, as well as concrete agreements that we are working on to ensure this. There are good options and solid ideas on how to truly strengthen us.”

Those good options have evaporated.

The potential loss of weapons systems and intelligence – and their immediate impact on a battlefield that is steadily tilting Moscow’s way as well as Ukraine’s energy supplies – very much matter.

But they pale by comparison to the prospect that Washington is ready to reward Putin’s aggression, shrug at his seizure of European territory and detach itself from the most successful alliance for peace in the modern era.

That point was made on Saturday by a number of senior Republicans, with US Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the Armed Services committee, saying: “Any suggestion that we can pursue arms control with a serial killer and liar like Putin should be treated with great skepticism.”

“There is a long tradition of great powers in Europe making deals over the heads of smaller countries, leading to terrible suffering,” writes Anne Applebaum in the Atlantic.

“The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with its secret protocols, brought us World War II. The Yalta agreement gave us the Cold War. The Witkoff-Dmitriev pact, if it holds, will fit right into that tradition,” she says.

The United States is holding meetings with a Russian delegation in Abu Dhabi, two U.S. officials told NBC News, as the Trump administration said only “a few delicate, but not insurmountable, details” remained to secure a deal to end the Kremlin’s war with Ukraine.

A U.S. official told NBC News that “the Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal,” adding that there were “some minor details to be sorted out,” without providing further details. A second U.S. official confirmed Kyiv said it would sign the agreement.

President Donald Trump presented an update on the status of the peace deal in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday.

"Over the past week, my team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the War between Russia and Ukraine (A War that would have NEVER started if I were President!). Last month 25,000 soldiers died," Trump wrote. "The original 28-Point Peace Plan, which was drafted by the United States, has been fine-tuned, with additional input from both sides, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement."

Trump said he had instructed special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to meet with the Ukrainians "in the hopes of finalizing this Peace Plan."

He added, "I look forward to hopefully meeting with President Zelenskyy and President Putin soon, but ONLY when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages. Thank you for your attention to this very important matter, and let’s all hope that PEACE can be accomplished AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!"

Ukraine has not publicly agreed to any deal, although a top official said the country was hoping to finalize an agreement this week in a meeting with Trump after securing changes to the plan.

The Kremlin said it wanted to see a changed proposal. The second American official said the Kremlin delegation had not revealed what Russia's position might be, but talks were ongoing and there was was optimism for the next step.

Putin has stuck to his hard-line stance throughout months of stop-start diplomacy with Washington, and the plan released last week was initially viewed across Europe as granting the Kremlin its core demands at the expense of Ukraine and its allies.

Any new concessions to Kyiv could be unacceptable to Moscow, but the White House expressed optimism.

“Over the past week, the United States has made tremendous progress towards a peace deal by bringing both Ukraine and Russia to the table,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday in a post on X. “There are a few delicate, but not insurmountable, details that must be sorted out and will require further talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States,” she added.

Army Secretary Driscoll first met with the Russian delegation in the capital of the United Arab Emirates on Monday evening, and was meeting them again on Tuesday, according to the officials.

“The talks are going well and we remain optimistic," Lt. Col. Jeff Tolbert, an Army spokesman, said in a statement. “Secretary Driscoll is closely synchronized with the White House and the U.S. interagency as these talks progress,” he said.

A Ukrainian delegation is also in Abu Dhabi and Driscoll is in touch with those officials, according to Tolbert.

Even as both warring sides exchanged deadly overnight strikes, a senior Ukrainian official said that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could soon fly to the U.S. and meet with Trump to reach a deal.

The White House had said Monday there was no meeting scheduled.

Ukrainian and U.S. delegations reached "a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva," Rustem Umerov, a top official in Zelenskyy’s government, said in a post on X early Tuesday without elaborating further on the details.

He added: "We look forward to organizing a visit of Ukraine’s President to the U.S. at the earliest suitable date in November to complete final steps and make a deal with President Trump."

Zelenskyy said Tuesday the Ukrainian team had returned from Geneva with “an updated framework” of the peace plan. He said earlier there were now fewer points in the plan than the original 28 that circulated last week, adding that he still had to discuss the most “sensitive issues” with Trump.

Meanwhile, civilian casualties were reported on each side as Russia pressed ahead with its war.

In Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said at least seven people were killed and another 13 injured in a Russian attack that left damage and falling debris in 13 different areas of the capital.

Russian officials said three people were killed and 10 more injured in an overnight aerial attack they blamed on Ukraine in the city of Taganrog, in the border Rostov region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is en route to the U.S. via Canada ahead of a weekend of high-stakes diplomacy and a renewed push for peace amid deadly Russian bombing on Ukraine’s capital.

Zelenskyy is set to meet with President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday, after a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and phone calls with European leaders Saturday.

As Trump ups pressure to bring the war to an end, Zelenskyy said that the critical issue of U.S.-backed security guarantees for Ukraine, to prevent a further Russian incursion, would be at the behest of the president.

“For us, it is very important that there is a signal that we want legally binding security guarantees,” Zelenskyy told Ukrainian journalists in a Q&A session via WhatsApp on Saturday. “This primarily depends on President Trump. The question is what security guarantees President Trump is ready to provide to Ukraine.”

If Russia "turns even the Christmas and New Year period into a time of destroyed homes and burned apartments, of ruined power plants, then this sick activity can only be responded to with truly strong steps,” he had posted on X earlier as he embarked on the trip. “The United States has this capability. Europe has this capability.”

As well as his meetings with Trump and Carney, Zelenskyy said he would talk remotely with European leaders to “exchange the details of the documents I will be discussing with the President of the United States.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be in attendance during the online meeting, a European Commission spokesperson told NBC News

European leaders have been largely sidelined in the main negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine and Russia.

They have focused on how to support Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, with talks ongoing over security guarantees and funding. But longtime American allies in Europe have struggled to balance mounting pressure from Washington with their reluctance to give in to Russia’s hard-line demands.

A Ukrainian official familiar with the planning for Sunday’s meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump told NBC News that, in addition to security guarantees for Ukraine, the Ukrainians are preparing to discuss economic prosperity and reconstruction of the war-torn country.

There are also talks of holding a joint news conference with Trump and Zelenskyy, not necessarily to announce anything new, but to discuss the results of the meeting, the Ukrainian official said.

In a WhatsApp chat with Ukrainian journalists on Friday, Zelenskyy said, “The 20-point plan we have been working on is 90% ready,” and that negotiating teams in Ukraine and the U.S. had made “significant progress.”

“Our task is to make sure everything is 100% ready,” he added. “With each such meeting and each such conversation, we must bring the desired result closer.”

Trump has made a high-level diplomatic push to end the war, but his efforts have run into Moscow’s and Kyiv’s widely differing positions and demands, while Russia remains unrelenting in its offensive.

Heavy Russian shelling and explosions struck Kyiv and the surrounding region early Saturday morning, killing at least two people and injuring 20 more, according to the Ukrainian Minister of Interior Ihor Klymenko said, adding that more than 10 residential buildings in the city had been damaged.

The strikes caused the temporary closure of two airports in southeastern Poland after the Polish air force scrambled fighter jets, the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency said on X.

Zelenskyy said Saturday that 500 Russian drones and 40 missiles had struck the nation, Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Russia’s much smaller neighbor in February 2022, has not backed off maximalist demands that would see Ukraine blocked from integrating with the West and limit its ability to defend itself. Until Tuesday, Zelenskyy had maintained that he would be unwilling to withdraw troops from the country’s eastern industrial heartland, much of which has been occupied by Russian forces, as part of a plan to end the war.

The Ukrainian leader has since given details of an updated peace plan offering Russia the potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the east and the creation of a demilitarized zone in their place.

Trump told Politico Friday that he anticipated a “good” meeting with the Ukrainian leader, though he offered no endorsement of Zelenskyy’s plan.

Zelenskyy “doesn’t have anything until I approve it,” he said. “So we’ll see what he’s got.”

Russia on Monday promised to retaliate against Ukraine after it said nearly 100 drones had targeted one of President Vladimir Putin's residences, likely throwing a wrench into President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the nearly four-year war.

"Such reckless actions will not go unanswered. The targets for retaliatory strikes and the timing of their implementation by the Russian armed forces have been determined," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said without offering details of the alleged attacks in the region of Novgorod.

Soon after, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the claims a lie aimed at jeopardizing negotiations. Russia would most likely use the alleged attack to launch strikes at government buildings in Kyiv, the capital, he added.

Trump later told reporters that he "just heard" about the attack alleged by Russia.

“That would be too bad. That would not be good,” he said ahead of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump then said that Putin had informed him of the alleged attack during a phone call this morning.

“It’s one thing to be offensive,” he said. “It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that.”

On Sunday, Trump was unusually optimistic about the peace process as he stood next to Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. The Kremlin on Monday agreed with Trump’s assessment that talks to end its war were in the final stage even as it stuck to its hard-line territorial demands.

After nearly three hours behind closed doors Sunday, Trump and Zelenskyy emerged to say they were “very close” to a deal and “90%” of the way there. But it’s those remaining “one or two very thorny issues” that will decide whether an agreement can be found between Kyiv and Moscow, Trump said.

Answering questions from reporters in a WhatsApp chat Monday, Zelenskyy outlined one key area where there does seem to have been progress.

The Ukrainian leader said Trump was now offering Kyiv legally binding security guarantees that would last for 15 years, though he had asked for them to remain in place for up to half a century.

“I told him that we have been at war for almost 15 years, and therefore we would very much like the guarantees to be longer,” Zelenskyy said, referring to Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and backing of pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s east before a full-scale invasion in 2022.

He said Trump indicated he would consider longer guarantees, adding that they include how a peace deal would be monitored as well as the “presence” of partners.

But while Ukraine appeared positive about this offer to guarantee its security against future Russian aggression, few details were made public and it was unclear how Russia would view the proposal.

Zelenskyy also made clear that the fate of key territory remains unresolved.

Control over the eastern Donbas region and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remain crucial sticking points in Trump's 20-point peace plan, a version of the original U.S. proposal that has been modified through weeks of intense diplomacy.

Ukraine still controls a chunk of Donbas and has vowed it won't give up that land, but Russia wants the whole region — a major demand that Putin has shown no desire to compromise on. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, is occupied by Russia but each side wants control of it in a deal.

American negotiators have previously floated the concept of establishing a “free economic zone” in Donbas, but Zelenskyy said Monday there is “no detailed concept” of how that would work yet, and that Ukrainian society would need to be consulted on any such agreement.

In fact, he said the whole 20-point peace plan should be put to a referendum in Ukraine, which he said would require a ceasefire of at least 60 days.

Moscow has ruled out agreeing to any temporary ceasefires, insisting that it was only interested in a permanent peace agreement — a position that Trump said Sunday he understood.

Before Trump met with Zelenskyy, he spoke on the phone with Putin for over two hours.

Trump said he believed the Russian president was serious about peace, but Zelenskyy was skeptical. “It is important that the actions and words of the Russian leader coincide,” he said Monday.

For its part the Kremlin agreed with Trump’s assessment that peace in Ukraine was closer.

Russia rang in the new year by launching more than 200 drones at Ukraine, while President Vladimir Putin used his year-end address to rally support for his troops and to assure his nation of victory.

In Ukraine itself, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Dec. 31 address was defiant but also optimistic about the frenetic shuttle diplomacy being brokered by the United States.

Zelenskyy said that Russia, whose officials are also in talks with the Americans, remains the central barrier to peace, with Putin unyielding in his maximalist demands.

“I would give anything in the world if, in this address, I could say that peace will also come in just a few minutes,” Zelenskyy said just before the clock struck midnight. “Unfortunately, I cannot say that yet. But with a clear conscience, I — all of us — can say that Ukraine is truly doing everything for peace.”

The Ukrainian leader recently returned from a meeting with President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday. Afterward, Zelenskyy said Trump had offered 15 years of the crucial “security guarantees” that he says are essential to stop Putin from attacking again. Ukraine had asked for 50 years, he said.

Hours before the new year’s bells chimed, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff posted on X that he had held a call with Zelenskyy, Ukrainian national security secretary Rustem Umerov and the national security advisers of Britain, France and Germany.

In his own post on X, Umerov said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were also on the call.

Though Zelenskyy said that the “peace agreement is 90% ready,” he suggested that the remaining 10% contained the thorniest issues preventing peace.

“Those are the 10% that will determine the fate of peace, the fate of Ukraine and Europe, how people will live,” he said. “Ten percent to save millions of lives. Ten percent of the determination needed for peace to work 100%. Ten percent of the unity and wisdom so desperately needed — Ukrainian, American, European, from the entire world. Ten percent to peace.

Hours after Zelenskyy spoke, Russia launched 205 drones — mostly Iran-designed Shaheds along with some Russian Gerbera drones — into Ukraine, according to the country’s military. Air defense systems downed 176 of these, but 24 strikes were recorded at 15 locations, it said. There was also shelling right along the line of contact between Russia and Ukraine.

At least two people were killed and more than a dozen injured across the country, according to regional officials.

For its part, Ukraine launched a strike against Russia’s Rosrezerv oil depot in the Yaroslavl region, the Security Service of Ukraine, the SBU, said in a statement. The SBU said this was the latest strike designed to “cut off the supply chains of Russian petroleum products with surgical precision, both abroad and for the troops attacking Ukraine.”

Russia claimed this week that Ukraine had attempted to assassinate Putin with a drone strike on his country residence, something that Ukraine denied and the CIA concluded was not true, a source with knowledge of the matter told NBC News.

In his own New Year’s address, Putin said his country was striving “to bring joy and warmth” to those in need, as well as the “heroes” fighting in Ukraine. “I wish all our soldiers and commanders a happy new year! We believe in you and in our victory,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday the text of a bilateral security guarantee between Kyiv and Washington was "essentially ready" to be finalized with U.S. President Donald Trump.

As a cornerstone of any post-war settlement, Ukraine has sought strong guarantees that commit the U.S. and other Western allies to come to Ukraine's aid if Russia invades again.

Ukrainian and U.S. envoys, joined by a coalition of Ukraine's allies, have been negotiating in Paris this week to iron out remaining disagreements in a peace framework Washington is seeking to thrash out with Kyiv before presenting it to Russia. On Tuesday, the U.S. endorsed the idea of providing security guarantees for Ukraine for the first time.

"The bilateral document on security guarantees for Ukraine is now essentially ready for finalisation at the highest level with the president (Trump)," Zelenskyy said in a post on X.

He said Wednesday's meetings of Ukrainian and U.S. representatives in Paris addressed "complex issues" from the framework under discussion to end the nearly four-year war, and that Kyiv had presented its solutions for these.

The Ukrainian president called for more pressure on Russia after further Russian missile attacks on energy infrastructure on Wednesday, arguing that the credibility of future security guarantees must be demonstrated by a response at this stage.

Zelenskyy has said that while the framework is 90% agreed, thorny issues remain around control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as well as Russian demands on Kyiv to cede a strategically significant slice of territory in eastern Ukraine that Moscow has been unable to capture in almost four years of war.

"We understand that the American side will engage with Russia, and we expect feedback on whether the aggressor is genuinely willing to end the war," Zelenskyy wrote on X.

He said the teams also discussed documents dealing with Ukraine's post-war recovery and economic development.