Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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Cornflake
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16 Mar 2022, 3:11 pm

magz wrote:
The punishment seems suspiciously mild. It's probably some PR action.
Some critics claim it's grooming audiences - both internal and international - for a coup and dumping all blame personally on Putin. That would be a strong exceuse to push for lifting sanctions.
Time will tell.
If it's a PR exercise it doesn't seem to have been effective - other well-known media faces have also walked out in protest at Russia's actions:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60763494


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magz
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16 Mar 2022, 3:45 pm

^ I mean mild punishment is probably for PR reasons.

Aren't most of the journalists and presenters in the article either already outside Russia or fleeing it? :chin:


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16 Mar 2022, 5:23 pm

magz wrote:
The punishment seems suspiciously mild. It's probably some PR action.


Agreed.
There is something odd about it.

magz wrote:
Some critics claim it's grooming audiences - both internal and international - for a coup and dumping all blame personally on Putin. That would be a strong exceuse to push for lifting sanctions.
Time will tell.


I hadn't considered that.
"Interesting".



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17 Mar 2022, 9:19 am

funeralxempire wrote:

As much as I don't like videos in general, this one is good.
The tactics of blocking Russian columns between buildings (around 10.min of the video) and creating kill zones was first successfully used by Chechens in 1994. For some reasons, Russians still form these columns.


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funeralxempire
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17 Mar 2022, 12:39 pm

Quote:
Quick situation update, Ukrainians have launched a counterattack in the south, and took a town halfway to Kherson.


Image

https://twitter.com/Time123On/status/15 ... 3151361031


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17 Mar 2022, 1:03 pm

According to a retired general commenting for Polish news, Ukrainians are taking initiative in two directions:
1. West of Kyiv, reducing the semi-circle that attempted (but failed so far) to block the city;
2. In the Mykolayiv and Kherson region, to block the attempt of Russians to go North towards central country, and possibly even to cut Crimea off (or at least water for Crimea, if they recaptured New Kakhovka dam).


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17 Mar 2022, 1:34 pm

Russia's Strategic Errors & Tactical Failures

• Putin's failure to predict the level of opposition and subsequent resistance that his forces would face from the Ukrainians led him to start a war that his forces were not prepared to handle from the start.  Seeking to launch a campaign of "shock and awe", this miscalculation left Russia unable to achieve the swift, decisive win it sought and expected, putting its forces in a situation where a conventional military victory may be unattainable.

• Despite intelligence being one of Russia's greatest strengths, the early results of this war indicate major errors.  Russian assessments of Ukrainian resistance were either incorrectly gathered or potentially never given to Putin, while it also possible that he ignored reports altogether.

• Putin was firm in his belief that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people", and that upon invading the country his soldiers would be welcomed by the Ukrainian people, who would accept the "unity" of the two countries.  This mentality could be a key reason for Russia's failings.

• Russian troops did not know they were heading into a war, and instead thought they were going into training, having been duped by the Kremlin.  Putin has sent waves of Russian ground forces at the Ukrainians, but operating under an ill-advised strategy, their sizable army has proven less effective than many originally expected.

• Russia's poorly executed logistics made the situation even worse.  Russia's supply convoys have suffered mechanical issues, obstructing its supply chains.  The lack of food, water, gas and other essential supplies are all significant factors impacting the Russian army.

• Russia's inability to effectively execute combined arms operations is one of its most significant failings.  Russia has struggled to dominate the Ukrainian airspace, and has also suffered naval losses.

Source:
 This Newsweek Article 



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17 Mar 2022, 1:46 pm

Yay!

I don’t really like the idea of a bunch of young Russians dying for putin unnecessarily, but I do love the idea of Russia continuing to stack up failure after failure.

Maybe we’ll get lucky and putin will die sooner rather than later so the world can move on.


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17 Mar 2022, 1:55 pm

Other Facts Regarding the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Never let social media do your thinking for you!

• Russian planes bombed a hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 9, killing three people and injuring at least 17, including two pregnant women seen in photos shared around the world.  Social media posts (i.e., Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, et cetera) falsely claimed one woman "posed" as the two women.  One of the women died of her injuries, along with her baby; the other gave birth to a daughter.

• Several megachurches in the U.S. were actively raising funds to support Ukrainians after the Russian invasion.  But social media posts (i.e., Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, et cetera) falsely claimed that "we have not seen a single American mega church offer anything to the Ukrainians".

• A video from 2019 showing Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un circulated with the false claim that it showed Putin meeting recently with the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in.

• Former President Donald Trump is one of several Republican politicians to claim or suggest that President Joe Biden ended the "energy independence" America needs to stop relying on Russia for oil.  But the U.S. has imported oil and other forms of energy from abroad, including from Russia, for many years.  On March 8, Biden signed an executive order blocking new U.S. purchases of Russian oil and other energy.

• Rothschild & Co. has an office in Moscow and has been operating in Russia since the mid-1990s.  Yet posts on social media (i.e., Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, et cetera) falsely claimed that Russia had barred the Rothschild banking family from doing business in the country. The claim is an adaptation of an old conspiracy theory about the family.

• Hunter Biden served on the board of the Ukrainian oil and gas company Burisma Holdings from 2014 to 2019.  But Ted Nugent posted a Facebook meme falsely insinuating that Hunter's payments from the company ended with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• The U.S. Department of Defense's Biological Threat Reduction Program has provided technical support to improve and protect Ukraine's public health laboratories. Social media posts (i.e., Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, et cetera), however, falsely claimed the program created "bioweapons labs" that are being targeted by Russian forces as part of the invasion of Ukraine.

• "Bernie Gores" was not killed in Afghanistan in August, and he was not the "first American casualty of the Ukraine crisis". He does not exist. But social media (i.e., Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, et cetera) users were faked out by fabricated tweets that purported to show CNN announcing the death of the same man twice in six months.  The photo of "Gores" used in both fake tweets was video gamer Jordie Jordan.

• Putin and other officials repeatedly denied having plans to invade Ukraine in the run-up to the assault.  They blamed the U.S., Ukraine, and others for the tension, insisting that Russia was a "peaceful country" and that it was "not going to attack anyone".

Source:  This FactCheck Article 



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17 Mar 2022, 6:21 pm

magz wrote:
As much as I don't like videos in general, this one is good.
The tactics of blocking Russian columns between buildings (around 10.min of the video) and creating kill zones was first successfully used by Chechens in 1994. For some reasons, Russians still form these columns.


pootin thought he could roll in and install a puppet government in around 2 days.
3 weeks later, the fight continues.
Clearly, the Russian campaign is having difficulties.
People only need to use their critical thinking skills to determine this.

pootin sacking 8-10 generals for supposed incompetence is not a sign of a campaign doing well.
Pootin's pleas to the China is not a sign the the campaign is doing well.
People should use their critical thinking skill.

March 9th contradicts pootin's claims that the war is doing well.
The leader of the SFB (their own head of intelligence) was under house arrest for giving false information about Ukraine.

pootin surrounded by bureaucrats that told him what he wanted to hear.
(Sound familiar, Adolf?). :mrgreen:

But I have already covered this. 8)



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17 Mar 2022, 6:26 pm

Fnord wrote:
Russia's Strategic Errors & Tactical Failures

• Putin's failure to predict the level of opposition and subsequent resistance that his forces would face from the Ukrainians led him to start a war that his forces were not prepared to handle from the start.  Seeking to launch a campaign of "shock and awe", this miscalculation left Russia unable to achieve the swift, decisive win it sought and expected, putting its forces in a situation where a conventional military victory may be unattainable.

• Despite intelligence being one of Russia's greatest strengths, the early results of this war indicate major errors.  Russian assessments of Ukrainian resistance were either incorrectly gathered or potentially never given to Putin, while it also possible that he ignored reports altogether.

• Putin was firm in his belief that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people", and that upon invading the country his soldiers would be welcomed by the Ukrainian people, who would accept the "unity" of the two countries.  This mentality could be a key reason for Russia's failings.

• Russian troops did not know they were heading into a war, and instead thought they were going into training, having been duped by the Kremlin.  Putin has sent waves of Russian ground forces at the Ukrainians, but operating under an ill-advised strategy, their sizable army has proven less effective than many originally expected.

• Russia's poorly executed logistics made the situation even worse.  Russia's supply convoys have suffered mechanical issues, obstructing its supply chains.  The lack of food, water, gas and other essential supplies are all significant factors impacting the Russian army.

• Russia's inability to effectively execute combined arms operations is one of its most significant failings.  Russia has struggled to dominate the Ukrainian airspace, and has also suffered naval losses.

Source:
 This Newsweek Article 


Self-evident. 8)



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17 Mar 2022, 6:27 pm

goldfish21 wrote:
Yay!

I don’t really like the idea of a bunch of young Russians dying for putin unnecessarily, but I do love the idea of Russia continuing to stack up failure after failure.

Maybe we’ll get lucky and putin will die sooner rather than later so the world can move on.


This is how I feel, also.



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17 Mar 2022, 7:17 pm



I think this guy lays out a pretty solid case for why despite any reporting to the contrary it's fair to recognize that currently Russia holds air superiority. It isn't absolute and in particular Ukrainian drones seem to be operating quite effectively but this is why Zelensky keeps asking for a no-fly zone.

Air superiority isn't obligatory to win a ground campaign but it certainly is a significant advantage to hold. Russia largely established air superiority with SAMs, not with their own fighters.

I believe that, besides the obvious risks of a serious global conflict potentially being triggered that the other major reason various NATO states don't wish to attempt to create a no-fly zone is that they're not certain they can effectively counter the S-400. The S-400 appears to significantly out-range any existing or planned NATO bloc anti-radiation missile. They'd have to hope F-35s can sneak up on it.


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Just a reminder: under international law, an occupying power has no right of self-defense, and those who are occupied have the right and duty to liberate themselves by any means possible.


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17 Mar 2022, 7:56 pm

^ so the military analysts haven't been able to explain why the Russians didn't bother with air superiority or why they fly so few sorties. They could have carried out strikes with virtual impunity, yet they choose low effectiveness and heavy losses in a ground war.

I don't understand it either. Seems there are more considerations at play that we're not aware of.



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17 Mar 2022, 8:09 pm

r00tb33r wrote:
^ so the military analysts haven't been able to explain why the Russians didn't bother with air superiority or why they fly so few sorties. They could have carried out strikes with virtual impunity, yet they choose low effectiveness and heavy losses in a ground war.

I don't understand it either. Seems there are more considerations at play that we're not aware of.


Ask me anything/k you want to know. 8)



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17 Mar 2022, 8:20 pm

r00tb33r wrote:
^ so the military analysts haven't been able to explain why the Russians didn't bother with air superiority or why they fly so few sorties. They could have carried out strikes with virtual impunity, yet they choose low effectiveness and heavy losses in a ground war.

I don't understand it either. Seems there are more considerations at play that we're not aware of.


I'm anticipating it has to do with a mixture of low stocks of precision guided munitions, uncertainty over the ability to rebuild their stocks of those munitions due to impacts of the sanctions (better to save them for WW3 instead of dropping them all in Ukraine) and possibly not wanting to risk further losses from Ukrainian S-300 systems, again with concerns over potential future escalation weighing heavily on the decision.

By and large, they have air superiority based on how little Ukraine is able to use their air force compared to Russia, even over the territory they control.

It's possible both sides are being cautious with how much risk they expose their fighters to. Ukraine would want to avoid risking their fighters if they don't believe allies will come and Russia wouldn't want to risk too many of theirs if there's a risk of NATO intervention being triggered by annihilating the Ukrainian air force.


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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
If you're not careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed, and loving the people who are doing the oppressing. —Malcolm X
Just a reminder: under international law, an occupying power has no right of self-defense, and those who are occupied have the right and duty to liberate themselves by any means possible.