auntblabby wrote:
I wonder what the numerical odds are of a brokered convention? or in a percentage chance, I wonder if it is <50%?
I'd say less than 50%
Trump just threatened riots,etc if he's not nominated. More trumpism if you don't do what i want, i'll have a violent tantrum..and more "subtle" encouragement of followers to do so.
The bottom line is though, without the delegates, he's not guaranteed. And, the votes have been clear that less than half of republicans want him. (And despite his eternal boasting, clearly many republicans do Not want him, and a vast majority of dems and independents don't either). The 'idea' of him is great.. Enough business as usual same old s**t. But -he- is a disaster. Unfortunately, it seems a chunk of people are locked on that idea and not getting past it to see -him-.
I think kasich should stay in despite splitting any votes.. The further west, the better his odds and it gives the many an alternative to cruz. And then, fine, if trump wants to throw a tantrum, kasich can run as a third party. That gives the many repubs/ind who don't want trump, someone to vote *for*.
And, though in the end, it likely gives the nomination to hillary, i think there are enough gop big shots and independents who see that 4 years of hillary followed by a good gop candidate deeply pales in risk to the country and world stability than any years of trump.
And, then trump will have another fit and claim rigged ballots and the media, etc etc
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"When does the human cost become too high for the building of a better machine?"
16 Mar 2016, 10:16 am
