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ruveyn
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02 Sep 2011, 7:36 pm

The economy is stagnating. What will Obama do? Will we have a war?

That is how the U.S. got out of the Great Depression of the thirties.

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02 Sep 2011, 7:54 pm

What he'll probably due is cave further into Republican demands for austerity. Said austerity demands are equivalent to IMF Structural Adjustment programs - they'll reduce the deficit in the short-term, and substantially reduce GDP growth and infastructure in the near-to-long term,. significantly weakening a declining superpower whose infastructure is already the laughing stock of the developed world.


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androbot2084
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02 Sep 2011, 7:56 pm

A nuclear war will not help the economy.



ruveyn
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02 Sep 2011, 8:23 pm

androbot2084 wrote:
A nuclear war will not help the economy.


A war need not be nuclear.

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androbot2084
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02 Sep 2011, 8:35 pm

If the next war is with Iran it wil be nuclear.



blauSamstag
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02 Sep 2011, 9:56 pm

I should start by saying that i am not an economist. My brother is an economist, from the chicago school, both figuratively and literally, but I haven't asked him what he'd suggest.

Maybe the short term is a lost cause. What we're dealing with right now is perhaps the comeuppance from how we got out of the previous recession. Which may have been the comeuppance from how we dealt with the recession before that one, and so on.

Maybe thinking about the short term is the problem.

As i say in all of these threads, I would start by cutting the "defense" budget by two foreign wars.

I would then focus on the long term.

For starters we should regulate the bejezus out of investment banks. Up to and potentially including constitutional amendments mandating personal responsibility in financial instruments.

I would look for ways to remedy systemic (not specific, but systemic) waste in government spending. Inefficiencies, corruption, collusion, duplicated effort, etc.

I would use savings from that to fund public works programs. Said public works programs would have to hire 80% of their workers from the pool of people who have been laid off and have been unable to find work in their specific field. These would not be excellent, high-paying jobs, but would pay the same as unemployment + basic health benefits, including benefits for children. I would have this hiring policy because the economy benefits the most from people working at their earning potential. If you have a potential to earn $100,000 a year in your industry, the nation needs you to go do that, and pay taxes, and consume goods and services, and put some aside for savings as well.

Since these will be crappy jobs, there will be a lot of them, and i don't care if they are repainting fire hydrants or auditing the stacks at the public library so long as they are doing something for the public good. People should be encouraged to use these jobs as a bridge, and to get the heck out into their own industry ASAP.

Unemployed people with valuable industry experience should be employed as teachers for their specific fields of knowledge. They will be crappy teachers so we will need two to four per classroom, and the ones who turn out to be good teachers will be promoted to a position where they develop coursework for the crappy ones. Classes will be free for people on unemployment or working in the public works. In general, I believe that this should ultimately evolve into a massive and respectable vocational training system.

We should have a massive grant program for public primary education. Educators should be required to submit a plan and request funding. If the plan is good they get the funding. There should be an emphasis on math and science in these grants. Plans should be published openly, and any school should be able to pick one, say "Us too", and then only have to prove that they have the talent to execute it. Failure to provide results after the end of 1 year means that your school has to come up with a better plan. I don't care if the plan is literally "we have five bright students and we want to turn them into engineers" if you have a way to do it, and it works.

The federal government should pay bounties to schools that produce outstanding scholars, and the bounties should be weighed inversely to how well funded the school already is. A poor school should get at least 5x what a rich one does. These students will probably have no problem landing a scholarship if they have appropriate assistance in acquiring one.

We should double the amount of money we spend on primary scientific research. Admittedly I'm biased here because my dear departed uncle helped make a substantial chunk of modern technology possible in his days at Fermilab and Argonne.

Basically, I'm arguing that we should see if we can scrape by for now, while investing in the future.

It's easy for me to say, because i'm not only employed, but employed in a job where i help prevent government waste.



Vexcalibur
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02 Sep 2011, 10:23 pm

ruveyn wrote:
The economy is stagnating. What will Obama do? Will we have a war?

That is how the U.S. got out of the Great Depression of the thirties.

ruveyn
Already tried (re: Lybia). We will need more wars than that. Thankfully Syria is being set up.

There is also Yemen and in the worst case Venezuela now that Chavez is week because of Cancer.


Quote:
If the next war is with Iran it wil be nuclear.
Why? It is not like they had actual missiles.


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Last edited by Vexcalibur on 02 Sep 2011, 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

cave_canem
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02 Sep 2011, 10:32 pm

Vexcalibur wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
The economy is stagnating. What will Obama do? Will we have a war?

That is how the U.S. got out of the Great Depression of the thirties.

ruveyn
Already tried (re: Lybia). We will need more wars than that. Thankfully Syria is being set up.

There is also Yemen and in the worst case Venezuela now that Chavez is week because of Cancer.


Why would a war necessarily have to involve actual, physical fighting on the part of Americans?

A new age Cold War might just do the trick.



Vexcalibur
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02 Sep 2011, 10:39 pm

You are assuming the Obama admin is smart enough to do that.


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androbot2084
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02 Sep 2011, 10:57 pm

The problem is that everything is being outsourced to China. We need to create a technology that China cannot copy.



cave_canem
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02 Sep 2011, 10:59 pm

androbot2084 wrote:
The problem is that everything is being outsourced to China. We need to create a technology that China cannot copy.


Why? Besides, it'd be outsourced to India.



androbot2084
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02 Sep 2011, 11:01 pm

So do you think that supersonic passenger jet aircraft will be outsourced to India?



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02 Sep 2011, 11:02 pm

ruveyn wrote:
The economy is stagnating. What will Obama do? Will we have a war?

That is how the U.S. got out of the Great Depression of the thirties.

ruveyn


The US government was not buried in debt in the 1930's



androbot2084
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02 Sep 2011, 11:04 pm

Debt can be wiped out through bankruptcy.



blauSamstag
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03 Sep 2011, 1:53 am

androbot2084 wrote:
The problem is that everything is being outsourced to China. We need to create a technology that China cannot copy.


That's an issue of currency valuation.

A strong dollar means that it's cheaper to import into the USA than it is to manufacture in the USA.

It's also why we can buy giant flat screen TVs for $800. If you happen to have a job, anyway.



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03 Sep 2011, 2:06 am

androbot2084 wrote:
The problem is that everything is being outsourced to China. We need to create a technology that China cannot copy.


The problem is an overvalued US dollar and a "hands off" approach when it comes to industrial policy.


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