2012 House elections

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For the 2012 House elections I'm wondering one thing. How well shall the Democrats do in the best part of the Union (the Upper Midwest)?

House elections are kind of hard to predict. I think it's unlikely that there will be a big wave either way.

As for here in Wisconsin, I think all the incumbents are favored to win. Sean Duffy in WI-7 is probably the most vulnerable as he is in Dave Obey's old seat but the district is more favorable to him(and to all the incumbents for that matter) this time around since the new redistricting. Paul Ryan was suppose to receive a serious well funded challenge but he has won every election since his first with 60%+ of the vote so I doubt he'll lose but who knows. Tammy Baldwin is running for senate and is the likely Democratic nominee so there will probably be at least one new member to the Wisconsin delegation.

Little off topic from house elections but the 2012 senate race in Wisconsin should be pretty fascinating. As mentioned, Tammy Baldwin will likely be the Democratic nominee, there are no other serious contenders while the GOP primary should be a dog fight.

Former US rep Mark Neumann who who lost narrowly against Feingold in 1998 and lost the GOP primary contest for governor against Scott Walker is running as the conservative candidate. Former governor and US Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson is running as a moderate establishment candidate.(altho I imagine he'd object to the moderate label) Scott Walker supporters aren't big fans of Tommy Thompson but they hate Neumann because of his primary challenge to Walker, they're mainly backing Jeff Fitzgerald who is the current Speaker of the State Assembly. State Senator Frank Lasee is also running as a conservative but will unlikely pick up much traction.

Thompson is probably the most popular Republican in the state and actually enjoyed support by the unions in our state when he was governor. If he makes it to the general election without being damaged too much, I think he'll beat Baldwin without trouble. Neumann/Baldwin would be a toss up imo while I think Baldwin would beat Fitzgerald.