GOP Primary Predictions

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Iowa Caucus: Ron Paul wins

New Hampshire Primary: Romney wins, Ron Paul comes in close second

Virgina Primary: Ron Paul wins

That's interesting. I wouldn't of thought you wouldn't of given Ron a chance.

Virginia is a 1 on 1 between Paul and Romney and in Virginia there are no write ins. In Virginia it you get majority of the vote you take all of the delegates and that would obviously be the case for whoever wins. Perry and Gingrich are trying to sue to get on the ballot and the state GOP might pull some monkey business too so who knows what the ballot looks like come March iirc.


I'm not sure what's going to happen tho, I think Ron has a good shot to win in Iowa and if he wins in Iowa, he should be at least competitive with Romney in New Hampshire. Hopefully then he'd get a bump down in SC and Florida but that's looking too far in the future.

After that you have South Carolina, Florida, and then a string of caucuses in Nevada, Maine, and Colorado. Gingrich, Perry, and maybe Santorum will probably stay in until at least SC or Florida primaries, one if not both will drop out by then for sure.

Ron should def be competitive in the caucuses. He's already strong in Nevada and Maine based off how he did in the states in 2008. I think he has a pretty clear path to the nomination if he can win Iowa and New Hampshire, he could possibly take South Carolina and it would be all over after that.

Ron Paul wins Iowa because of the superior activist ground organization in a the caucus state (activists tend to dominate the caucuses and Ron Paul won the straw poll earlier). He gets second in New Hampshire because of it's reputation as a relatively "libertarian" state. And I predicted Virgina and none of the states in-between because Virgina only has two candidates (I'm assuming they don't let others in) and I can't see the State going for Romney.

He definitely should be competitive in the Nevada, Colorado, and Maine caucuses. Nevada and Colorado will be tough to win since Romney has a lot Mormon supporters but Ron is also strong in those states and they are caucus states. Maine should be competitive for sure between Romney and Paul.

South Carolina is going to change this race a lot. It's going to be tough for Ron to win but the campaign isn't really too active there yet but South Carolina is extremely conservative and Romney has little chance at all of winning there. If Ron can pick up momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire, I say he has shot. This will be the last stand of Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich I think, one of them will drop out here. A Jim DeMint endorsement would be a game changer for whoever gets it in this state imo.

Florida isn't a state I expect Ron to be able to compete in unless he miraculously wins Iowa, NH, and SC and gains a ton of momentum. Florida is simply to big of a state to be competitive in and the demographics don't work in Ron's favor. As long as he gets in top 3 with over 10% in Florida, I'll be happy with the result. If Gingrich is still around at this time and he doesn't win in Florida, he's finished.

What is it about the demographics that work against Ron Paul in Florida? Too many retirees? Too many hispanics?

Yea, he isn't strong with older voters and Cubans probably won't support someone that isn't pro-embargo. The state is very large as well, in smaller states it's a lot easier for the grassroots support to reach out to voters.

What is his problem with senior citizens? He is the oldest one in the campaign, himself.

Probably from fear-mongering that he will cut Medicare/Social Security and his stances on social issues.

Also, a lot of older folks only get their news from Old Media sources and they're not too kind to Dr. Paul.

He can live off campaign donations. The other elders better watch out for themselves.

He is on record as calling Social Security "unconstitutional."

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/ ... e-slavery/

Wait... I'm sure, with social security gone and taxes eliminated, a charitable infrastructure to support the elderly will immediately spring up. And I'm sure the various different, potentially unaware of each other, charities will reach all parts of the country and be easy to applied to and equitably obtain services from.

You never heard of the Great Depression?

I hear the Soylent Corporation is ready to step up and help....

You do realize that my response was sarcastic, correct?

Old people are just wrinkled, crybabies. They don't need near as much food as they think they do.

The religious right says children should support their elderly parents.