AstroGeek wrote:
I think it's our comeuppance for the Reagan-Thatcher era deregulation. Not that many people are heading the warning... Oh well, I expect that by the 2040s we'll see a revitalized global left.
Please, the western world is more or less a leftist paradise these days except for the States where the Militant Christian-right is swinging closer and closer into power as the economy gets worse, internal friction between different groups increases, the rhetoric becomes more hate filled, overt threats of violence are made against the existing government at political rallies, ... and somehow I feel like I'm telling the story of Germany ca 1933.
In Europe on the other hand most governments during the period were in fact socialist governments a majority of the time. Most of Europe in the period if not all of it had (and still has to a degree) a bloated public sector where public workers steadily approached the salary levels of the private sector, yet retained extremely lucrative pension plans far beyond private sector pensions and unrivaled job security compared to the private sector. The whole thing financed by borrowing heaps of money.
Its not so much about deregulation, that only catches a small part of what has been going on for the past 20 - 40 years, namely incompetence in Government. The responsibility of the Federal Reserve is to control the money supply, yet they let it go wild in a series of Greenspan puts. The jobs of regulators is to make sure that companies aren't overly leveraged, insolvent and so on. Any idiot could tell you that if you're leveraged 70:1 in geared financial products you're screwed if the market goes against you.
When you're leveraged with 3:1, in a position size of lets say $100.000.000 (which is small for a lot of banks and funds out there) 3:1 would mean, $30.000.000 of your own money and $70.000.000 borrowed money. If the size of your position goes down by 1%, this equals a loss of 1.000.000, but you still owe the bank $70.000.000 and you only have $29.000.000 left. So on that 1% drop you lost 3% of your equity. If you had a 70:1, the bank would put up $70 for every $1 you put up, so with $30.000.000 you could buy stocks for (30.000.000x70) 2.100000000. If the stock dropped by 1% you would in this case lose 2.079.000.000(2.100.000.000*0.99) - 2.100.000.000 = 21.000.000. Which is 21.000.000/30.000.000 or 70% of your equity. Imagine what would happen if it dropped by 10 - 20% in 30 minutes?