Dollar crash

Post Reply New Topic

Projecting the current US economical heading out into the next century the crash of the dollar is probable. Can the US save itself and how likely is it that America will exist in its current form into the next century and beyond? What do you predict for the US economic future?

What do you mean when speaking of "the crash of the dollar"?

The dollar losing its status as oil currency and subsequent rapid value loss

Is it a realistic scenario?

http://www.examiner.com/article/dollar- ... using-yuan
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly ... -currency/

America is in an inescapable amount of debt

The nominal debt might have risen, but most of it has actually been inflated away measured in real terms.

I thought America was so heavily in debt to China that you might as well change your national currency to the Yuan anyway.

You could change the wording on your currency "In Mao we trust".

The US debt to China is $1.3 trillion, in nominal terms. It has been steadily written off in real terms due to inflation, possibly as compensation for IP infringements.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/j ... rporations

The debt at the household level is increasing however and economic growth is set to begin to stall within the next few years

Actually, the majority of the national debt is held by Americans. Primarily within the financial sector that borrows from the fed and then finances federal debt at a higher interest rate than they are paying. It is an absurd system that the politicians in DC stopped trying to fix quite some time ago. They don't even bring it up any more as they can't afford to risk losing those campaign funds. The China debt (which is actually at a lower interest rate than our own banks charge us) is mostly just a way to scare up some votes among the older demographic that is still terrified of those Chinese commies.

There are actually "Americans" who WANT the dollar to crash. There are "Americans" who are doing everything within their pwoer to make sure the dollar crashes. And these people would refer to themselves as "patriots"

My guess that theyre hoping that they'll be able to rebuild a constitutionally sound government in the aftermath? I'd agree that the desire is patriotic. Its acknowledged by most that the only way that we're ever going to get just governments equality and the like is in the wake of some terrible calamity. Of course nothing of the sort will happen. Misguided

IKt feels like it is only when Liberals have power that people are talking most loudly about government overthrow, tyranny and revolution. Liberals realize that things fluctuate depending on who has power, which is why there are elections. We put up with Bush and Cheney for 8 years and survived, now people on the other side have to wait until they can win power via elections, as per our Constitution, instead of whining, throwing 8 year long hissy fit tantrums. Stop trying to destroy everything we have just to get power and think we can just "start over." If people want to "start over" they should be required to give up all technology, computers, cell phones, motor vehicles etc and not just tear up the things that the majority of sane people have worked all their lives for while the anarchists live in the present.

Never mind "What do you mean by the crash of the Dollar?" What do you mean by "The Dollar"? In August 1971, it was a currency directly linked to gold (the only such one in the world), and after Nixon broke that link, it sort of crashed, but only against commodities (hence 1970s inflation), and against super-hard currencies like the German mark and the Japanese yen. Even today, after all the US's economic travails in the 1970s and the GW Bush/Obama era, the Paper Dollar is still relatively strong against most world currencies, although the collapse of Communism and the introduction of the Euro make many comparisons difficult.
What will "The Dollar" be in 50 years time? A currency in its current sense, or some kind of electronic accounting unit?

And the "Emerging Economies", such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia etc, whose currencies might be expected to overtake the dollar, all to varying degrees need to keep their currencies relatively weak to remain "competitive" (this may not apply to India, but since the Rupee has lost 90% of its value against the Dollar in the last 3 decades, this is irrelevant anyway), so there's probably no threat there.

The larger question is probably impossible to answer. How much of an advantage will America's new-found fracking technology give it, and how long will it last? Some studies show that this source of energy will be exhausted very rapidly. Can the US (and Britain, for that matter), continue to support its economy through zero interest rates and buying its own debt (Quantitative Easing)? A lot of this stuff is just illusory - the Dow Jones stock index is twenty times as high as it was thirty-five years ago, but most Americans are probably no better off, actually worse off in some important respects.

America existing in its current form? 50 states - probably. A Democracy - is it that now? A "Superpower"? Hasn't that been overplayed in recent decades? Vietnam? Iraq?

Have you listened to the predictions and pontifications of the "experts" on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc, or the stuff Bernanke, Yellen, Carney etc come out with? If these characters haven't a clue what's going to happen next year (and they clearly haven't), or even what's going on now, what hope have the rest of us of working it out?