Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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Exactly.

There are a number of structures in a bacteria that have no counterpart in a virus. No virus is suddenly going to acquire those structures to become a bacteria.

Unlike viruses, bacteria are not only self contained living things, they are the dominant form of life on Earth. Viruses, on the other hand, must infect a living cell to be replicated.

In my humble opinion, H5N1 possess the ability under the right circumstances to transition into H1N1. The H1N1 pandemic of 1918 has been studied in great detail. This plague exploded during World War 1 and spread around the world. The spread was detailed in WikipediA.

Spanish flu

First wave of early 1918
Deadly second wave of late 1918
Third wave of 1919
Fourth wave of 1920

The intensity of H1N1 began to decline globally by 1922. One important point was that this deadly pandemic crossed the world much slower in the early 19 hundreds because our mode of transportation was horses and ships at sea. Today the pandemic would travel across the globe in hours not years.

The Spanish flu infected around 500 million people, about one-third of the world's population. Estimates done in 2021 by John M. Barry have the total death toll alone at well above 100 million. Since the world's population has increased around 5 times since the early 1900s, a repeat of this pandemic today might cause a half a billion deaths if it should come back at the present time.

While it might be possible that we could see a reassortment between an H1 influenza virus and H5N1 into an H1N1 virus, that wouldn't seem to be at all likely. For that to occur, both viruses would have to infect cells of some person or animal simultaneously. It's not likely that it would end up with the H1N1 virus, though.

And outbreak or pandemic, not plague.

It doesn't need to be a highly contagious (person-to-person) plague to produce an extremely deadly pandemic. It only requires a very effective transmission agent (like insects such as mosquitoes) to spread the disease.

In World War 1, soldiers from around the world were engaged in combat. Many fought in ideal conditions for producing and amplifying the effects of a plague. Dead bodies were left on the field of war to decay, exposed for days. Soldiers were unable to retrieve the bodies because of enemy gunfire. Insects had a field day. They spread the plague. They were the transmission agent. And H1N1 exploded like a firestorm. It was the ideal environment for the spread of the global pandemic.

Do you have any actual evidence that it was spread by flies in World War 1?

There has been research into the ability of flies to carry influenza that has concluded that is is possible. However, "that it is possible" is far from being "effective".

About thirty years ago, I read that mosquitoes are known to be able to be a vector for more than 100 diseases, but that every one of those diseases were diseases in which the virus or bacteria could multiply inside the mosquito. The question at the time was whether they could carry HIV and the answer seemed to have been either "not possible" to "maybe possible but highly unlikely" with most opinions in the former category.

There are articles that described the trench conditions of warfare during WWI.

One article wrote:

The striking resemblance between humans and insects also stemmed from their close proximity on the battlefield. Lice, mosquitoes and flies thrived in the trenches, quickly becoming one of the main sources of illness and death among soldiers. Faced with the rapid spread of typhus, malaria, and trench fever (spread by lice), the War Office teamed up with entomologists to tackle this enemy within.

Source: Why World War I cultivated an obsession with insects

Another article dug a little deeper:

“Trench fever”, as the name suggests was a disease that was prevalent in the trenches in World War I. It was first reported from troops in Flanders in 1915 when individuals suffered from the sudden onset of a febrile illness that relapsed in 5 day cycles. At the time the aetiological agent responsible for the disease was unknown.

Although not a severe illness, an estimated 380,000-520,000 members of the British Army were affected between 1915 and 1918. This had obvious implications for the strength of the fighting force due to the large numbers of men that were incapacitated due to the illness. Consequently, much research was carried out to identify the causative agent and the mechanism of transmission of the disease.

Due to the similarity of the Trench fever to Malaria, with its relapsing bouts, it was postulated that the agent could be transmitted by some of the insects found it the trenches and likely by the human body louse, Pediculus humanus humanus, as the disease was prevalent in the winter when other vectors, such as flies, were not.

Transmission experiments conducted by both American and British led groups concluded that the human body louse was indeed a vector of the disease via infectious bite,s but that a more common route of transmission was the inoculation of louse excreta into the body through broken skin.

Attempts to find a treatment for the disease were unsuccessful and prevention focussed on “delousing” of clothes via insecticides. At the time the causative agent was identified and grouped with the Rickettsia and named “Rickettsia quintana” and after the war 6000 men in Britain still attributed their disability as a result of the war to Trench Fever.

We now know that R. quintana would subsequently join the genus Bartonella (along with B. bacilliformis, the agent of Carrion’s disease transmitted by sandlfies).

The genus has expanded rapidly since the 1990s and Bartonella are considered an emerging group of pathogens consisting of over 30 taxa (and many new candidate species) which have been implicated in a wide range of clinical syndromes of humans including Cat Scratch Disease and endocarditis.

They infect a wide range of mammalian hosts and are transmitted by a variety of blood sucking arthropods across the world.

Source: Parasites and diseases in the trenches of World War I

There are many types of insects and even at the beginning of WWI the infections caused by insects were very visible. But as the war raged, the transmission agent was changing from one insect to another to another, until it reached the most dangerous form, mosquitoes. And then it exploded causing a massive surge in human deaths.

Life Goes On

Where does natural immunity come from? Is it a good idea to destroy all the birds or animals on a farm when the flock gets sick? Should we be looking for survivors?

Ducks return to a Long Island farm that lost its entire flock to the bird flu

Doug Corwin knew there was a problem at his family's commercial duck farm in Long Island when he spotted scores of dead or lethargic birds during a barn inspection in January.

Within days, Crescent Duck Farm became a casualty of the global avian flu outbreak, one of many farms around the U.S. that had to cull their entire flock, sending the prices of eggs and other agricultural commodities soaring.

Now the more than century-old farm - the last duck farm remaining in a New York region once synonymous with the culinary delicacy - is cautiously rebuilding.

But for Corwin, a 66-year-old fourth-generation farmer, it's not enough to bring the farm back to its 100,000-bird capacity.

With ducks hatched from eggs spared from slaughter, he's working to preserve the unique lineage of fowl that's allowed his family's farm to thrive even as others on Long Island fell by the wayside - all while worrying that another flu outbreak would finally wipe him out.

Make way for ducklings

We were talking about the flu, not a smattering of other diseases.

So where is the evidence that the flu was spread by flies?

In the last 24 hours, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported a new development in the ongoing battle against avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu. This comes as part of an effort to address national and global concerns over the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 strain, which has been affecting both poultry and wild bird populations. The CDC has announced that recent updates in their monitoring systems have detected potential new human cases in isolated rural areas of Kentucky. While these reports are still under investigation, the CDC emphasizes that there is no need for public panic as the risk to the general population remains low.

Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting in Geneva following increased reports of avian flu outbreaks in Europe and Southeast Asia. Countries such as France and Vietnam are seeing a resurgence of cases in poultry farms and have initiated strict biosecurity measures, including culling infected bird populations and implementing quarantines to prevent the spread of the virus. Infections have also been identified in migratory birds, raising concerns about cross-border transmission as these birds travel widely during the summer months.

Source: Bird Flu update for 07-06-2025

I dug a little deeper and this article is part of a daily update of the spread of H5N1 in birds/animals/humans.

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Human cases of a very deadly form of H5N1 seem to be hitting Cambodia very hard.

Bird flu nears Thai border as neighbouring country reports more cases

As of July 3, 2025, Cambodia has confirmed 12 human cases of H5N1 so far this year. Alarmingly, seven cases were reported in just one month, (Seven of these cases in just one month) between June 7 and July 3.

This plague can be spread by many types of insects and the symptoms and treatment will vary by type of insects involved.
For example, if the transmission agent is mosquitoes, treat the bite with Tecnu Topical Analgesic Anti-Itch Spray (Diphenhydramine HCl 2%). If the transmission agent is chiggers, treat the disease by bathing in water upon returning home and then use ChiggereX on any bites that appear on the body. This product contains 10% Benzocaine.

How will those medications help?

Pay attention to the active ingredients, the one is an antihistamine, the other is a local anaesthetic. They're intended to reduce the immediate annoyance of the bite, not to treat anything that might be transmitted. Treating a bite or not treating a bite with those medications will make zero difference to one's risk of contracting a disease from the bite.

Good catch.

I had stopped reading at the word "plague". Since influenza is not plague, everything after was immaterial.

Also, influenza is usually spread person to person. Maybe an insect could spread it, but if they can, that would be the exception, not the rule.

I have used these products multiple times and have found them to be very effective. Hundreds of bits from chiggers and from mosquitoes. They remove the urge to scratch the area bitten. They block oxygen from entering the wounded area. Most bites from insects do not carry diseases, but when an infectious outbreak occurs, they can cause many very deadly diseases.

ChiggereX according to the label is used on chigger bites, red bug bites, ticks and mosquito bites.
It is used to treat all types of insect bites, including mosquitoes, ticks, spiders, bees, flies, ants and more.

I don't think anyone is claiming that those compounds don't help alleviate issues from the bite itself.

Rather, the compounds do absolutely nothing at all to treat influenza or any other disease. After all, after the disease enters the bloodstream, smearing an antihistamine or an anaesthetic on the skin will have no effect on the disease that is already in your blood stream.

Bird flu found to evolve rapidly, infecting more hosts and finding ways to spread more effectively

Although the avian flu (H5N1) virus may not be making the news as frequently, it is still working hard behind the scenes, attempting to evolve into more and more effective versions. Since the highly pathogenic avian flu was detected in Canada in 2021, it has led to the infection of over 180 million domestic birds in Canada and the United States. New evidence published in Science Advances, indicates that the H5N1 virus has been intermixing with low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) to expand its host options and geographical range.

Researchers analyzed 2,955 viral genomes taken from infected domestic and wild birds between 2021 and 2024 in Canada. They combined their data with data from previously published analyses for a more complete picture of the viral changes. Their results provide a map of how the bird flu has evolved genetically and how it moved throughout North and South America over the last few years—mostly with the help of migrating birds.

The study showed extensive increases in bird flu viral fitness—the ability of the virus to replicate, adapt, and spread. This increase in viral fitness is due to frequent "reassortment," a process where two or more viruses infect the same cell and exchange genetic material to create a progeny virus with a new combination of traits from the originals.

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The current guidance from the CDC is in ERROR.
I came across a July 9, 2025 article today that stated:

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday published clinical guidance on evaluating patients for H5N1 avian flu infections, which covers treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis. It advised clinicians to consider H5N1 in patients who have acute respiratory illness symptoms or conjunctivitis and relevant exposure history. Such patients should be referred for prompt medical evaluation and testing and should be offered prophylactic antiviral treatment with oseltamivir as soon as possible.

Analysis of the girl from Canada who became infected with a very severe form of H5N1 at the end of 2024 showed that oseltamivir was ineffective in treating this condition.