US Unemployment Again Lowest in 50 YEARS

Page 2 of 3 [ 33 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

SoloSailor
Deinonychus
Deinonychus

User avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 2015
Age: 62
Posts: 354

09 Dec 2019, 3:59 am

cyberdad wrote:
EzraS wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
Darmok peddling pro-Trump Propaganda again...


So that's one pro-trump propaganda post compared to umpteen anti-trump propaganda posts.


Please refer to Fig 1 (courtesy of cyberdad) and Fig 2 (courtesy of solosailor)...they are facts....published in Forbes or other respectable publications.

Darmok's claim is based on tweets from Trump or unsubstantiated propoganda published in Brietbart or Fox



As this subject relates to one of my special interests, I feel compelled to note the following RE: the chart I posted:

The number that Darmok used is the 'U3' or 'headline' number (red line) which is usually released by the BLS on the first Friday of every month and is the one most often cited by the MSM.

The 'U6' number (grey line) is the 'adjusted' number which is usually released 3-5 days after the U3 and is rarely cited by the MSM.

Neither the U3 nor the U6 accurately report the true number of unemployed as the inclusion of long term unemployed / discouraged workers has been prohibited since the Clinton administration.

The 'SGS' number (blue line) is the U6 with long term unemployed / discouraged workers added back into the data set.

Image


_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa


cyberdad
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 21 Feb 2011
Age: 58
Gender: Male
Posts: 36,036

09 Dec 2019, 4:07 am

Thanks for bringing a semblance of intellectual and evidence based debate here solosailor...without our efforts these threads are otherwise hijacked by the Trump propaganda ministry



EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

09 Dec 2019, 4:42 am

cyberdad wrote:
EzraS wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
Darmok's claim is based on tweets from Trump or unsubstantiated propoganda published in Brietbart or Fox


The OP article was published by CNBC.

Obviously you didn't even bother to look at the source material.


CNBC is just reporting trends....


You said the OP's post was based on other sources, when it was a CNBC article. And you called the CNBC article pro-Trump propaganda.



EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

09 Dec 2019, 4:50 am

SoloSailor wrote:
As this subject relates to one of my special interests, I feel compelled to note the following RE: the chart I posted:

The number that Darmok used is the 'U3' or 'headline' number (red line) which is usually released by the BLS on the first Friday of every month and is the one most often cited by the MSM.

The 'U6' number (grey line) is the 'adjusted' number which is usually released 3-5 days after the U3 and is rarely cited by the MSM.

Neither the U3 nor the U6 accurately report the true number of unemployed as the inclusion of long term unemployed / discouraged workers has been prohibited since the Clinton administration.

The 'SGS' number (blue line) is the U6 with long term unemployed / discouraged workers added back into the data set.

Image


What the OP posted was an article from CNBC.

What was posted in italics were the words of Jeff Cox of CNBC. So your argument is with him, not the OP.

Quote:
Jeff Cox is the finance editor for CNBC.com where he manages coverage of the financial markets and Wall Street. His stories are routinely among the most-read items on the site each day as he interviews some of the smartest and most well-respected analysts and advisors in the financial world. He also is a frequent guest on CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/jeff-cox/


Are either of you two familiar with the saying "don't shoot the messenger"?



SoloSailor
Deinonychus
Deinonychus

User avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 2015
Age: 62
Posts: 354

09 Dec 2019, 5:04 am

EzraS wrote:
What the OP posted was an article from CNBC.

What was posted in italics were the words of Jeff Cox of CNBC. So your argument is with him, not the OP.


My argument is with no one.
I'm simply pointing out that the unemployment numbers as reported in the mainstream news media are complete and utter BS.


_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa


EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

09 Dec 2019, 5:12 am

SoloSailor wrote:
EzraS wrote:
What the OP posted was an article from CNBC.

What was posted in italics were the words of Jeff Cox of CNBC. So your argument is with him, not the OP.


My argument is with no one.
I'm simply pointing out that the unemployment numbers as reported in the mainstream news media are complete and utter BS.


The OP's name kept being dropped when it's Jeff Cox finance editor for CNBC's BS.

Apparently you and cyberdad are more qualified than he is.



beneficii
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 10 May 2005
Age: 42
Gender: Female
Posts: 7,245

09 Dec 2019, 5:44 am

SoloSailor wrote:
EzraS wrote:
What the OP posted was an article from CNBC.

What was posted in italics were the words of Jeff Cox of CNBC. So your argument is with him, not the OP.


My argument is with no one.
I'm simply pointing out that the unemployment numbers as reported in the mainstream news media are complete and utter BS.


Well, I remember that during Obama's tenure, conservatives would often talk about the "real" unemployment rate, namely the U-6 rate that also counts discouraged workers and those who for economic reasons are stuck in part time jobs. Interesting how talk of that died down when Trump came into office:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/the-gov ... -rate.html


_________________
"You have a responsibility to consider all sides of a problem and a responsibility to make a judgment and a responsibility to care for all involved." --Ian Danskin


TheRobotLives
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 7 Dec 2019
Gender: Female
Posts: 2,092
Location: Quiet, Dark, Comfy Spot

09 Dec 2019, 6:16 am

The biggest private US employer …


_________________
Then a hero comes along, with the strength to carry on, and you cast your fears aside, and you know you can survive.

Be the hero of your life.


SoloSailor
Deinonychus
Deinonychus

User avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 2015
Age: 62
Posts: 354

09 Dec 2019, 2:44 pm

cyberdad wrote:
..without our efforts these threads are otherwise hijacked by the Trump propaganda ministry



For the record:

I am a non-partisan who believes that open debate is a healthy and necessary component of a truly free society. Everyone should be allowed to exercise the right to voice their own opinions and to let said opinions stand or fall upon their own merits.


_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa


SoloSailor
Deinonychus
Deinonychus

User avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 2015
Age: 62
Posts: 354

09 Dec 2019, 2:48 pm

EzraS wrote:
Apparently you and cyberdad are more qualified than he is.


Ahhh... the old logical fallacy of 'argument from authority'.

You seem to be a White Knight in search of a nonexistent crusade.


_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa


SoloSailor
Deinonychus
Deinonychus

User avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 2015
Age: 62
Posts: 354

09 Dec 2019, 2:57 pm

beneficii wrote:
Well, I remember that during Obama's tenure, conservatives would often talk about the "real" unemployment rate, namely the U-6 rate that also counts discouraged workers and those who for economic reasons are stuck in part time jobs. Interesting how talk of that died down when Trump came into office.


I have been observing similar shenanigans from members of both the Democrat and Republican parties since the Reagan administration.

As for the conservative claim of the U6 being the 'real' number:
The reason I posted that chart was to illustrate the fact that both the U3 and the U6 are essentially lies of ommission.

U3 only includes data for unemployed for the previous 4 months

U6 only includes data for unemployed/discouraged for the past year

SGS
combines all available data- including those who have been unemployed/discouraged for longer than one year.
(Note that even the SGS has issues as verifiable numbers for farm/casual labor are pretty much nonexistent.)



What I find truly interesting is that nobody seems to be talking about the blue line (SGS) on that chart-which has been showing an increasing divergence from the U3/U6 since the first quarter of 2009.
I haven't yet found conclusive data- but what I've found so far indicates that charting the rise in the homeless population gives me a graph that is eerily similar to that little blue line.


_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa


EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

09 Dec 2019, 3:43 pm

SoloSailor wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Apparently you and cyberdad are more qualified than he is.


Ahhh... the old logical fallacy of 'argument from authority'.

You seem to be a White Knight in search of a nonexistent crusade.


I'm not arguing that what Jeff Cox says must be true. I'm just saying that he's probably more qualified.

Yeah I'm a regular Dox Quixote.



cyberdad
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 21 Feb 2011
Age: 58
Gender: Male
Posts: 36,036

10 Dec 2019, 1:17 am

EzraS wrote:
The OP's name kept being dropped when it's Jeff Cox finance editor for CNBC's BS.


He's highlighting a snapshot/ short term trend, he's not attributing it to Trump's brilliance :roll: like you and Darmok are trying to interject and project your own values onto a story

You ignored some of the other posters here who accurately alluded to the rise of casual and part-time employment rather than meaningful full-time jobs...



EzraS
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Gender: Male
Posts: 27,828
Location: Twin Peaks

10 Dec 2019, 2:22 am

cyberdad wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The OP's name kept being dropped when it's Jeff Cox finance editor for CNBC's BS.


He's highlighting a snapshot/ short term trend, he's not attributing it to Trump's brilliance :roll: like you and Darmok are trying to interject and project your own values onto a story

You ignored some of the other posters here who accurately alluded to the rise of casual and part-time employment rather than meaningful full-time jobs...


You are wrong the OP posted an article without interjecting anything of his own into it.

I didn't ignore anything. I'm simply not arguing the issue. All I have done in the thread is point out who wrote the article, mainly because you went into a fit blaming the OP for something he did not write and yammering about twitter fox and brietbart when it was CNBC.

It seems likely to me that you only read the title and flew off the handle.



BTDT
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 26 Jul 2010
Age: 63
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 8,490

10 Dec 2019, 12:27 pm

Is there a correlation between any of the employment numbers and autistic adults being able to move out of entry level jobs to positions that pay well?



SoloSailor
Deinonychus
Deinonychus

User avatar

Joined: 28 Sep 2015
Age: 62
Posts: 354

11 Dec 2019, 1:36 pm

BTDT wrote:
Is there a correlation between any of the employment numbers and autistic adults being able to move out of entry level jobs to positions that pay well?


Good question.
While that is certainly a huge issue among autistics as a group, I don't know if we make up a large enough percentage of the available workforce to count as much more than background noise in the overall unemployment totals.


_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa