Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

Post Reply New Topic

One of the biggest problems with the H5N1 outbreak is that the majority of people are not being tested for the diseases. So an outbreak may be happening in humans but we are walking blind into the night. This problem was in full view in Missouri when a patient was shown to have the disease but because he didn't show the pattern of a small group of people (people who participated in the killing and disposal of millions of H5N1 contaminate chickens) was invisible. Well now there may be Patient #2.

CDC says close contact of Missouri bird flu patient showed symptoms

A day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it had yet to identify “a clear source” of infection in a Missouri patient who tested positive for the bird flu virus, the agency quietly disclosed in its weekly influenza report that a close contact was sick around the same time as the Missouri patient but was not tested for influenza.

A CDC spokesperson said in an email Friday the close contact was within the household of the Missouri patient and developed symptoms that weren’t typical of flu.

The effect of H5N1 on destroying the bird population in the U.S. is enormous.

USDA reports that since April 2024, there have been A(H5) detections in 35 commercial flocks and 22 backyard flocks, for a total of 18.68 million birds affected.

CDC A(H5N1) Bird Flu Response Update September 13, 2024

This population is primarily chickens and these birds have been killed.

Influenza H5N1 viruses first emerged in 1996, in Guangdong Geese, in China, and have continued to cause outbreaks in birds. However, since 2020 there has been an acceleration with an unprecedented number of deaths (millions) in wild birds and poultry across Africa, Asia and Europe. It caused a large outbreak in a mink farm in Spain with concern about mammalian spread.

In 2021–22, the virus spread to North America, killing hundreds of seals in New England and Quebec. The virus travelled further again in 2022, to Central then South America, even reaching the Antarctic over the past year.

H5N1 infections have now been detected in over 200 mammalian species: including domestic and wild animals such as bears (black, brown and polar), cats and dogs, foxes and minks, leopards and tigers; recently the virus has also been detected in alpacas, cows, elephants, elephant seals and sea-lions.

The spread of the virus from birds into herds of dairy cattle in the USA has been concerning not only because of the immediate economic loss but also because it gives influenza viruses another avenue to mutate.

In Australia, during 2024, three different avian influenza strains (H7N3, H7N9, H7N8) are affecting poultry, which has led to the culling of hundreds of thousands of chickens. These new outbreaks of bird flu in Australia are in contrast with only 8 previous outbreaks in the previous 48 years.

One flu over the dairy farm: bird and cow flu in the USA

I consider West Nile Virus to be like a twin disease to H5N1. So tracking WNV in the U.S. is worth doing. The following link provides the latest information on WNV in the U.S.

Nationally, 491 cases have been diagnosed in 39 different states, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracker shows.

West Nile Virus

The outbreak of Bird Flu in California keeps growing in dairy herds. First it was 3, then 6 and now 8.

California reports a total of eight H5N1 bird flu outbreaks among dairy herds

Officials have refused to disclose the locations of the infected herds, but have said they are in close proximity somewhere in California’s Central Valley

The bird flu is on the move in California.

Bird flu detected in San Diego County wastewater

San Diego County is now the fifth location in California to detect the bird flu, county officials announced Monday.

According to the county, San Diego’s sewage system is closed, which means the stormwater and wastewater systems are not mixed, prompting officials to determine the cause of the virus in the wastewater was most likely from environmental sources.

Another article adds: "In addition to San Diego, wastewater bird flu detections in California included west Contra Costa County on June 10, Turlock on Sept. 4, southeast San Francisco on June 18 and June 26 and Palo Alto on July 4, July 9 and June 19."

Is bird flu spreading among people? Data gaps leave researchers in the dark

Mysterious U.S. bird flu case in person without any known contact with an infected animal raises spectre of human-to-human transmission.

Researchers are anxiously awaiting data from the midwestern state (Missouri) about a mysterious bird flu infection in a person who had no known contact with potential animal carriers of the disease. The data could reveal whether the ongoing US bird flu outbreak in dairy cattle has reached a dreaded turning point: the emergence of a virus capable of spreading from human to human.

“The fear is that the virus is spreading within the community at low levels, and this is the first time that we’re detecting it,” says Scott Hensley, a viral immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine in Philadelphia.

From my perspective, you do not know what is happening unless you test for it. Our analysis of the current outbreak is extremely limited because we are only testing a very small fragment of the population. It addition it is a volunteering approach. One is only tested if they volunteer to be tested and fall within a very small class of people who performed the elimination of infected birds. As a result we are flying blind.

Somewhere around 40 years ago, in one of my jobs, I performed Trend Analysis.
Trend analysis is a technique used to examine and predict movements of an item based on current and historical data.
When you analyze a large number of data points and use them to predict the future, most analyst use a common approach of analyzing the various data points and throwing away the outliers.
What are outliers? Well they are data points that are so far out of the norm, that they MUST BE ERRORS and as a result are thrown in the garbage.
But I was different. I would perform the same approach but I never threw away the outliers. I would spend around 50 percent of my time analyzing the outliers and trying to understand why they were outliers. And taking this approach many times lead to significant discoveries. I solve very serious problems by understanding the outliers.

So what does this have to do with Are we at the edge of another pandemic, H5N1?
Well, No one is analyzing the outliers.
What outliers? Three come to mind.

1. The virus H5N1 is spread through drinking milk. But almost all milk that is consumed in the United States is pasteurized milk and the pasteurization process kills the virus. The key word here is "almost". Some people in the U.S. drink unpasteurized milk. For example, there is a large community of Amish around 30 miles from my home. They live like they did over 200 years ago. They drink unpasteurized milk, just as was done long ago. Who is studying this outlier?

2. Millions of chickens in the U.S. are dying from H5N1 Bird Flu. What about the eggs of birds that became infected from Bird Flu before they were exterminated. Most people cook their eggs before they consume them. But not all people do. Some people consume raw eggs. Here is an example.



My father, a hundred years ago when he lived on the farm would take and egg and make a small hole in the shell and suck out the raw egg from the inside.

3. Another thing that comes to mind is that different people scattered around the world consume different foods. Many years ago one of our friends invited us to attend a wedding. They were from the Philippines. The wedding party had hundred of guest and hundreds of kids. They brought me one of their delicatessen. I looked at it and asked what was it. They said Chocolate Cow. As all the kids stood around watching me, I consumed it and everyone laughed. It turns out that I just age coagulated cows blood, a Filipino delicacy.

There are probably many, many other types of outliers. Each should be looked at. Is H5N1 being spread from chickens and cows or perhaps there is another pathway, such as INSECTS, primarily mosquitoes - creating a direct blood to blood transfer.

‘We are not testing enough’: new US bird flu cases stoke fears over poor response

Experts worry H5N1 virus is more widespread than is being reported as they call for stricter mandates from USDA.

After three more herds in California’s Central valley tested positive for bird flu, questions have been raised about the whether true extent of the outbreak in the US is much wider than recognized, given inadequate or nonexistent biosecurity and a persistent lack of testing.

“We are really not testing enough,” said Meghan Davis, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health. “The lack of testing has actually been one of the most startling things for me, in terms of watching the response to this outbreak unfold.”

California is the 14th state to announce H5N1 cases in dairy cows since the outbreak was first identified in March. New Mexico and Michigan also recently announced more cases in dairy herds.

Yet several states and localities have resisted testing – among animals and people. Experts worry the virus is much more widespread than is being reported – and every newfound case in an animal raises the risk of more people getting sick.

-----------------------------------------

I live in one of the Northern states in the U.S. and the weather will soon begin to drop as winter approaches. Why is this important? Well, the birds will begin to fly south for the winter. It means the H5N1 threat will be on the move soon. Will more species begin to show H5N1? In other words will H5N1 expand closer and closer to HUMANS?

I have begun to implement a family H5N1 defense plan. I think the best approach is to use #4 which I described on 27 June 2024, 9:49 am on this thread.

4. Accidents can happen. What to do immediately after being bitten by a mosquito? Treat the bit with Tecnu Topical Analgesic Anti-Itch Spray (Diphenhydramine HCl 2% ). There is another product that can diminish the effects of being bitten by an infected insect. It is called ChiggereX. This product contains 10% Benzocaine.

I have purchased these items and began distribution of these to my family members. If they are bitten by a mosquito or other insect and a bump from an insect bite materializes, they have the means to attack the threat. Just apply one of these ointments in the morning and at night for a week until the bump(s) disappear. They can tell if it is working because the itch will disappear.

Bird flu H5N1 strain could cause 'mass mortality' of black swans, other native birds

Experts are warning of "mass mortality events" of native bird species if a deadly strain of bird flu reaches Australia.
A study has found black swans are particularly susceptible to avian influenza.

Last year, a study found black swans were particularly susceptible to the virus and could be wiped out if highly pathogenic forms of bird flu took hold in Australia.

"It's not only the mass death that really scares me," Golo Maurer, Birdlife Australia's director of conservation strategy, said.
"It's also the potential that we might actually lose entire species in the process.

On 14 Aug 2024, 2:06 pm I discussed a 9 step approach to protecting against H5N1 bird flu. One of the steps was

5. If you become infected with H5N1 treat the condition immediately using one of four FDA-approved antivirals for influenza: (1) Oseltamivir phosphate (Tamiflu), (2) Zanamivir (Relenza), (3) Peramivir (Rapivab), (4) Baloxavir (Xofluza). These are prescription drugs and will require a doctors prescription. Time is of the essence here. This condition will begin to destroy the human body and make it impossible to treat within a few days. Time is of the essence.

This is the last step before the virus reaches the Point of No Return. I came across an article that looks at this process in greater detail.

Can our stockpiles of Tamiflu protect against a bird flu pandemic?

Since reports emerged earlier this year that dairy cows across the country had been infected with H5N1 bird flu, the prospect that the virus could evolve to spark another pandemic has stoked serious concern.

But unlike COVID-19, the flu is an old, well-known foe. And health authorities have reassured the public that the US has squirreled away millions of doses of the flu medication oseltamivir, known under the brand name Tamiflu. As health policy expert Leana S. Wen wrote in a Washington Post opinion piece, the drug “works against seasonal flu and is expected to work well against H5N1.”

The article then goes on to state: Oseltamivir has a controversial past. Governments around the world have spent billions of dollars to stockpile the drug since the early 2000s based on evidence that it reduced the risk of serious complications such as pneumonia.

------------------------------

As I said earlier, "This is the last step before the virus reaches the Point of No Return."
After the disease becomes visible, there is only a day or two before the disease becomes incurable. So one has to work at the speed of light to treat the threat. Will this prescription medicine be available immediately, instantly when it is needed?

When there was a H5N1 mass killing of infected chickens in the U.S. this year, the foreign workers who disposed of their dead bodies wore hazmat outfits while eliminating the birds. Those that became infected even after wearing the outfits were then quickly treated with Tamiflu. In general, most average Americans do not have access to this level of protection.

H1N1 and H5N1 are very similar diseases.
It is my belief that if you can understand H1N1, you can learn to treat H5N1.

H1N1 was also called the Spanish Flu. It killed around 50 to 100 million people in the 1918 epidemic that spanned the globe. The world population has grown between 1918 and today. Thus in the current population that would equate to around 250 to 500 million deaths. The H1N1 plague went by many names. In my opinion, the most accurate name was the name given by the Italians. They called it the "sand fly fever". Sand fly fever (SF) is an arthropod-borne viral disease, also known as “mosquito fever”.

[Refer to 12 Aug 2024, 8:50 am on this thread.]

Thus in my humble opinion, H5N1 is an extremely dangerous disease for humans and it spreads extremely fast. People can die within hours of showing symptoms. If it struck uncontrolled today, it might kill 250 to 500 million people in the outbreak during the first year and then disappear. It strikes young and middle age people (rather then the elderly that died during COVID pandemic.) It is spread by insect bites, primarily Mosquitoes. It transmits the virus directly by passing infected blood suck by these insects into the bodies of humans.

The outbreak of H5N1 in humans in Missouri is growing.

More health-care workers in contact with Missouri bird flu patient report respiratory symptoms

Before Friday’s disclosure, two other health-care workers had been identified as having symptoms after caring for this patient, bringing the total number of workers with symptoms to six.

In addition One person who lives in the same house as the patient developed symptoms the same day.

Yeah it’s not looking good.

That part of the United States has a long history of starting major flu epidemics. The “Spanish Flu” that killed millions of people actually began in Kansas, for example.

In my humble opinion, the research being done by University of Texas Heath using wastewater tracking is extremely valuable in locating and tracking the spread of H5N1 across the United States. It is a catastrophic error on governmental leadership to ignore and not fund this tool.

Diseases outbreaks need hurricane - style warning systems

Scientists have invented a system for predicting outbreaks of infectious disease: a new way of testing wastewater for emergent signs of known viruses. That’s possible thanks to several scientific and technological advances, including biologists’ ability to quickly synthesize or “print” thousands upon thousands of fragments of DNA. These can be used as probes to pick up any virus that can get into the sewage system.

This “pan virome” detector was developed at the University of Texas Heath, Houston and the Baylor College of Medicine. Researchers deployed it earlier this year to show exactly when the H5N1 bird flu started showing up this year in 10 different cities. That virus has grown more worrisome in recent months, since it has started spreading in multiple mammal species, including dairy cows, and has jumped multiple times into people.

The key to any crippling pandemic is how did the person in the same house contract Bird Flu. If it was germs on items or airborne or a future variant that spreads in those ways we are in big trouble. If it remains only close physical contact it can be bad but not a disaster. It has spread to farmers via close contact with infected animals. They spread it to health care workers presumably via close physical contact or inadvertent blood exchange. The family member might have contracted it due to sexual relations. If not uh oh.