Climate talks fail
Kiprobalhato wrote:
i never have understood WTF is so controversial about not wanting to trash the planet.
I think it comes from several directions. Judging from all I've seen, it seems to be:
1.) Industry does not want to have to lower carbon emissions, because it feels that it would harm profits too much. It wants to do as much as it can to avoid those costs, so it encourages and funds "research" for the purpose of disproving climate change.
2.) Political conservatives in the US have a very strong individualistic streak, but the solutions to climate change involve increased regulation and collective action. This cuts to the core of their worldview of how things should be. In addition, they are at their core Calvinistic (even though they are mostly not part of the Reformed church), and believe that hard work and working as much as you can is God's path. They see the development of carbon-emitting industries as arising from that hard work. Since it arises from hard work, which they see as following God's path, then it should only ever produce good fruits, and never bad fruits. So to them, therefore, global warming must either not be caused by human activity or it must have only beneficial effects. They must believe.
3.) The science that goes into studying climate change is complex, and it requires years of education to be able to fully understand. This makes it easy for people to cherrypick data and make it look like it's saying the opposite of what the climatologists are saying, which of course can happen in any field. But in this case, these people are being encouraged and enabled by the people in the first 2 categories I mentioned. And of course, these people like to think of themselves as smarter than those stupid or dishonest scientists and dislike being told they have gaps in their knowledge.
So that's how not trashing the planet can be so controversial. It sucks, I know.
_________________
"You have a responsibility to consider all sides of a problem and a responsibility to make a judgment and a responsibility to care for all involved." --Ian Danskin
I think it may be informative to read about pseudoskepticism:
Quote:
In contrast to the cases above, the form of science denialism I wish to explore below is what I refer to as pseudoskepticism. When scientific consensus is rejected by non‐experts who naively consider themselves more scientifically astute than the collective scientific community, it is appropriately labeled pseudoskepticism. Pseudoskepticism, I argue, may be influenced by, though perhaps not exclusively, the following two factors: (a) ignorance of the scientific process and (b) ideologically motivated reasoning (as opposed to the exercise of faith).
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ful ... tops.12179
In addition, there can be ethical concerns when you make decisions via motivated reasoning, and here is the first of 2 examples quoted by the study (the examples originating from an 1887 paper):
Quote:
A shipowner was about to send to sea an emigrant ship. He knew that she was old, and not ever‐well built at the first; that she had seen many seas and climes, and often had needed repairs. Doubts had been suggested to him that possibly she was not seaworthy. These doubts preyed upon his mind, and made him unhappy; he thought that perhaps he ought to have her thoroughly overhauled and refitted, even though this should put him at great expense. Before the ship sailed, however, he succeeded in overcoming these melancholy reflections. He said to himself that she had gone safely through so many voyages and weathered so many storms that it was idle to suppose she would not come safely home from this trip also. He would put his trust in Providence, which could hardly fail to protect all these unhappy families that were leaving their fatherland to seek for better times elsewhere. He would dismiss from his mind all ungenerous suspicions about the honesty of builders and contractors. In such ways he acquired a sincere and comfortable conviction that his vessel was thoroughly safe and seaworthy; he watched her departure with a light heart, and benevolent wishes for the success of the exiles in their strange new home that was to be; and he got his insurance‐money when she went down in mid‐ocean and told no tales.
And the author of the study ties it to climate change pseudoskeptics:
Quote:
Clifford's illustrations lend themselves to modern examples of climate science pseudoskepticism. The first example straightforwardly involves one person risking the safety of others over dubious beliefs arrived at through motivated reasoning. In keeping with the spirit of Clifford's example, take the inevitability of sea level rise from climate change. Even conservative estimates of sea level rise resulting from climate change implicitly place a large number of the world's coastal poor at increased risk of losing their property as well as their lives (IPCC, 2013). Politicians in nations responsible for the majority of GHG emissions who allow ideologically motivated reasoning to justify their denial of anthropogenic climate change treat those most vulnerable to sea level rise as Clifford's ship‐owner treated his seafarers. In both cases, unwarranted beliefs contribute to people's willingness to risk the safety of innocent others.
The second example is here:
Quote:
There was once an island in which some of the inhabitants professed a religion teaching neither the doctrine of original sin nor that of eternal punishment. A suspicion got abroad that the professors of this religion had made use of unfair means to get their doctrines taught to children. They were accused of wresting the laws of their country in such a way as to remove children from the care of their natural and legal guardians; and even of stealing them away and keeping them concealed from their friends and relations. A certain number of men formed themselves into a society for agitating the public about this matter. They published grave accusations against individual citizens of the highest position and character and did all in their power to injure these citizens in the exercise of their professions. So great was the noise they made that a commission was appointed to investigate the facts; but after the commission had carefully inquired into all the evidence that could be got, it appeared that the accused were innocent. Not only had they been accused on insufficient evidence, but the evidence of their innocence was such as the agitators might easily have obtained, if they had attempted a fair inquiry.
And the author's tie of it to the climate change pseudoskeptics:
Quote:
Clifford's second example parallels climate science pseudoskeptics who slander climate scientists and others working on topics related to climate change. It is routine for pseudoskeptical climate bloggers to accuse scientists of fraudulent research and data manipulation (Clynes, 2012). In 2009, famously, emails were stolen from Britain's University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit. The emails were released online along with accusations that climate researchers were engaging in fraudulent activity. Subsequent investigations repeatedly demonstrated the innocence of those climate researchers, though to this day, many in the public know only of the accusations against and not of the vindication of the scientists (Fischer, 2010). Such behavior puts researchers at risk of not being able to do and disseminate their work by slandering their reputation.
_________________
"You have a responsibility to consider all sides of a problem and a responsibility to make a judgment and a responsibility to care for all involved." --Ian Danskin
beneficii wrote:
They never made the specific forecasts we now see today for climate change.
Actually, they did. I remember the '70s. Predictions of an imminent ice age were a popular topic in the news for quite some time. However there was one crucial difference: media/news back then wasn't the round the clock in your face repetitious assault that it is today. Maybe a newspaper in the morning, the headlines on the radio during your lunch hour and Walter Cronkite in the evening.
_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa
SoloSailor wrote:
beneficii wrote:
They never made the specific forecasts we now see today for climate change.
Actually, they did. I remember the '70s. Predictions of an imminent ice age were a popular topic in the news for quite some time. However there was one crucial difference: media/news back then wasn't the round the clock in your face repetitious assault that it is today. Maybe a newspaper in the morning, the headlines on the radio during your lunch hour and Walter Cronkite in the evening.
It was something that the news media trumpeted, but in scientific papers a lot more uncertainty was expressed. By the mid-1970s, the scientific papers were arguing that with the information they had at the time, they could not satisfactorily predict where the climate was headed, and by the end of the 70s it was becoming clear that CO2 was the dominant forcing. Again, I refer you to my source:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... ling-myth/
_________________
"You have a responsibility to consider all sides of a problem and a responsibility to make a judgment and a responsibility to care for all involved." --Ian Danskin
SoloSailor wrote:
beneficii wrote:
They never made the specific forecasts we now see today for climate change.
Actually, they did. I remember the '70s. Predictions of an imminent ice age were a popular topic in the news for quite some time. However there was one crucial difference: media/news back then wasn't the round the clock in your face repetitious assault that it is today. Maybe a newspaper in the morning, the headlines on the radio during your lunch hour and Walter Cronkite in the evening.
And it's gotten exponentially worse since that was made 12 years ago.
Last edited by EzraS on 02 Jan 2020, 5:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
beneficii wrote:
Pepe wrote:
So your position is:
*Everything/k* that comes out the mouths of babes, err, I mean scientists, brims with integrity and honesty?
And that there are never political or financial motives invested influencing the direction and outcome of research?
If so,
I find that position a "little" naive.
*Everything/k* that comes out the mouths of babes, err, I mean scientists, brims with integrity and honesty?
And that there are never political or financial motives invested influencing the direction and outcome of research?
If so,
I find that position a "little" naive.
beneficii wrote:
Never said that. What I'm saying is that when you have such high level of consensus, you should take it very seriously.
When you say: "high level of consensus",
What are you refering to?
The 97% figure?
beneficii wrote:
A person is not going to be an expert on everything. You cannot fully understand everything there is to know by yourself. You just don't have enough time and energy in a single lifetime to do it. You will have to, basically, outsource your thinking to others at times, especially when it comes to complex subjects like this. This is why we live in societies instead of completely by ourselves.
So you would agree that Al Gore was not in any position to give advice in regards to climate change predictions,
And if he used "Informed Advice", that source got it wrong?
beneficii wrote:
SoloSailor wrote:







Only one of those sources was in the scientific press. And the one scientific source itself mentioned that "(e)xisting data still do not allow forecast of the precise timing of the predicted development, not the assessment of the man's interference with the natural trends." There's a lot of uncertainty expressed there. As my source mentions, they were developing knowledge of past ice ages and interglacial periods, and were considering the possibility that the current interglacial period would soon come to an end. In addition, that Brown University letter did not call for anything except more research and preparations by agriculture and industry just in case.
They never made the specific forecasts we now see today for climate change.
beneficii wrote:
I think it may be informative to read about pseudoskepticism:
Quote:
(psuedointellectual psychobabbling unicorn dung deleted)
I think it may be informative to understand that the Climate Change movement has all of the trappings of a cult. And, like any other cult, its brainwashed members engage in a mind boggling array of mental gymnastics in a vain attempt at rationalizing and justifying their own internal cognitive dissonance. Reason, facts and logic need not apply... in fact these things are the very antithesis of their worldview. Any evidence contradictory to their dogma is never critically examined as doing so may irrevocably expose the fraudulent nature of their chosen beliefs.
Those providing arguments and evidence contradictory to cult dogma are considered heretics who must must be shouted down at all costs. Ad hominem, obfuscation, misdirection, psuedointellectual verbosity, fixation on irrelevant minutiae, baldfaced lies and other dishonest tactics are considered to be not only acceptable but necessary methods to used against the 'deniers' - because, well, they *are* heretics after all.
We wouldn't want to let a little reality get in the way of a good story now would we?
_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa
Well surprise, surprise, surprise!
When the facts don't fit the CAGW narrative what do you do?
Well, you erase evidence of the lie and pretend it never happened. What else would you expect?
NPS officials at Glacier National Park have quietly removed the 'Glaciers Gone by 2020' signs:
_________________
Without deviation from the norm progress is not possible.
-Frank Zappa
SoloSailor wrote:
I think it may be informative to understand that the Climate Change movement has all of the trappings of a cult. And, like any other cult, its brainwashed members engage in a mind boggling array of mental gymnastics in a vain attempt at rationalizing and justifying their own internal cognitive dissonance. Reason, facts and logic need not apply... in fact these things are the very antithesis of their worldview. Any evidence contradictory to their dogma is never critically examined as doing so may irrevocably expose the fraudulent nature of their chosen beliefs.
Those providing arguments and evidence contradictory to cult dogma are considered heretics who must must be shouted down at all costs. Ad hominem, obfuscation, misdirection, psuedointellectual verbosity, fixation on irrelevant minutiae, baldfaced lies and other dishonest tactics are considered to be not only acceptable but necessary methods to used against the 'deniers' - because, well, they *are* heretics after all.
We wouldn't want to let a little reality get in the way of a good story now would we?
Those providing arguments and evidence contradictory to cult dogma are considered heretics who must must be shouted down at all costs. Ad hominem, obfuscation, misdirection, psuedointellectual verbosity, fixation on irrelevant minutiae, baldfaced lies and other dishonest tactics are considered to be not only acceptable but necessary methods to used against the 'deniers' - because, well, they *are* heretics after all.
We wouldn't want to let a little reality get in the way of a good story now would we?
Greta said it, I believe it, that settles it.
