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cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 3:52 am

Well I'm glad that's settled :)



Pepe
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10 Jan 2020, 4:14 am

SoloSailor wrote:


Quote:
“Many aspects of the catastrophic scenario have already been largely discounted by the scientific community [and] fears of massive sea level increases have been steadily reduced by orders of magnitude” (p. 87). In 2012, Lindzen and 15 coauthors published a letter to the Wall Street Journal titled, “No Need to Panic about Global Warming”



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10 Jan 2020, 4:22 am

beneficii wrote:
Pepe wrote:

In future I won't say climate modelling is false.
I will say it is approximate,
And there is room for improvement.
Is this something you are comfortable with?


Yes. Thank you.


So where do you stand in regard to the: "97% of scientists" concensus?

And what other gases influence global temperatures?
And do you believe that the sun has an influence here too?



cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 8:09 am

Pepe wrote:
beneficii wrote:
Pepe wrote:

In future I won't say climate modelling is false.
I will say it is approximate,
And there is room for improvement.
Is this something you are comfortable with?


Yes. Thank you.


So where do you stand in regard to the: "97% of scientists" concensus?

And what other gases influence global temperatures?
And do you believe that the sun has an influence here too?


Swapping opinions?



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10 Jan 2020, 6:33 pm

Beneficii wrote:
I skimmed the discussion, didn't see anything to change my mind. There was mostly a whole lot of cries about, "OMG, can you believe they said that?" Some attempted to get more technical and go into particular studies or whatever, but discussions like that go way over my head. I guess if it's valid, they can try getting it published in a peer-reviewed journal somewhere. But if they're not able to publish everywhere, I will take that as a proxy for, There's something wrong with their arguments they need to rectify. My advice to them would be, like I've said before:

GIT GUD

Just....wow.

I presented you with an absurd parody of a scientific paper, dropped a few hints, (the first hint was the title of the paper itself) and suggested browsing a discussion (where, ironically, some participants happen to be scientists) on the merits (or lack thereof) of said paper (as well as the current peer review process).
Yet, in spite of all clues given, you seem to have accepted the conclusion reached in the 'study' as fact.
GIT GUD indeed...

Quote:
Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit

Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”

Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

Arguments from authority carry little weight—“authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way-station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.

Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise)—not just most of them.

Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle—an electron, say—in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.


Image


Beneficii wrote:
If you guys have a valid point, it's YOUR job to get better and start convincing climate scientists.

Um, no.
CAGW promoters are the ones making the claim that we are facing a situation so immediately dire that we must drastically alter and consolidate social, political and economic policy on a global scale.
The burden of proof is upon the one making the claim.


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cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 6:59 pm

Amusing watching a scientific thinker (Beneficii) trying to debate with trolls who think they are in a rap battle spitting bars :lol:

Now where's my popcorn



SoloSailor
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10 Jan 2020, 7:13 pm

Image


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cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 7:28 pm

SoloSailor wrote:
Image


Well agree with this, but disagree who exactly fits the bill :lol:



Pepe
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10 Jan 2020, 8:32 pm

beneficii wrote:
I guess if it's valid, they can try getting it published in a peer-reviewed journal somewhere. But if they're not able to publish everywhere, I will take that as a proxy for, There's something wrong with their arguments they need to rectify. My advice to them would be, like I've said before:

GIT GUD

I don't want to hear whining about how all the institutions around the world are supposed to be part of some conspiracy to unfairly block their "research", or groupthink or whatever. If you make a valid point in the field, you can get published in the peer-reviewed literature, it happens frequently in multiple fields. The peer-reviewed journals are not afraid to publish controversy where it legitimately exists in a field. If you guys have a valid point, it's YOUR job to get better and start convincing climate scientists.


Image



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10 Jan 2020, 8:46 pm

SoloSailor wrote:
Image



Mate,
Why are you feeding the troll?



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10 Jan 2020, 9:13 pm

Pepe wrote:
Mate,
Why are you feeding the troll?

Just a public service announcement.
Unfortunately, trolls will chew on just about anything.


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SoloSailor
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10 Jan 2020, 10:53 pm

Image


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cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 11:11 pm

EzraS wrote:
Of course you do. I've witnessed you being a troll and a bully for years. Not always. You shift gears from being sincere to to being a troll. But the troll part sticks out the most.


Heavens no, you must be mixing me up with somebody else. My posts are squeaky clean.



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10 Jan 2020, 11:26 pm

cyberdad wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Of course you do. I've witnessed you being a troll and a bully for years. Not always. You shift gears from being sincere to to being a troll. But the troll part sticks out the most.


Heavens no, you must be mixing me up with somebody else. My posts are squeaky clean.


Does it make you feel like a big man doing this in an autism forum? Do you brag to your NT friends about it?



cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 11:27 pm

EzraS wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Of course you do. I've witnessed you being a troll and a bully for years. Not always. You shift gears from being sincere to to being a troll. But the troll part sticks out the most.


Heavens no, you must be mixing me up with somebody else. My posts are squeaky clean.


Does it make you feel like a big man doing this in an autism forum? Do you brag to your NT friends about it?


Nope? you seem to be projecting your insecurities



cyberdad
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10 Jan 2020, 11:29 pm

EzraS wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Of course you do. I've witnessed you being a troll and a bully for years. Not always. You shift gears from being sincere to to being a troll. But the troll part sticks out the most.


Heavens no, you must be mixing me up with somebody else. My posts are squeaky clean.


Does it make you feel like a big man doing this in an autism forum? Do you brag to your NT friends about it?


I remember you tried the "people outside of the US have no right to comment about the US" argument which fell flat on it's face.

Now you want to try "this is an autism forum and NTs have no right to comment here"