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The election was no landslide not close

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ASPartOfMe
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01 Dec 2024, 8:53 am

Dox47 wrote:
media narrative about what a racist he is (I think he's average for his age, he just doesn't really bother to hide it).

That is an insightful observation.

roronoa79 wrote:
It seems like a landslide because the GOP candidate actually won the popular vote for a change. Last time that happened, I was still learning long division. .

You hit on something there. It does not seem like a landslide to me because I lived through the elections I described in the OP. I look at this election as a notable adjustment. My basic view of the electorate as evenly divided has not changed.


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Dox47
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02 Dec 2024, 9:25 pm

To back up a hair, I also think some of the "landslide" talk comes from Trump not just winning the popular vote, but all 7 swing states, and so decisively that the result was known on election night. With all the tied polling and horse race talk about paths to 270 and how long the count might take, the clear and unambiguous victory felt huge.


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ASPartOfMe
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03 Dec 2024, 12:07 pm

Dox47 wrote:
To back up a hair, I also think some of the "landslide" talk comes from Trump not just winning the popular vote, but all 7 swing states, and so decisively that the result was known on election night. With all the tied polling and horse race talk about paths to 270 and how long the count might take, the clear and unambiguous victory felt huge.


I did hear a number of pundits say while the election was too close to call they expected the swing states to mostly or completely line up in one direction.

But it is all perception. Of all the three elections Trump ran in the worst polling performance was the one nobody talks about the 2020 election. The polls had Biden winning by 9 points in the popular vote and he won by 4 points beyond the margin of error. But since the Biden was predicted to win and he did, crickets. That the preferred mainstream media candidate won I suspect is a major factor.


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Jason Thayer
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03 Dec 2024, 1:56 pm

The Electoral college will sadly never go away. The GOP wants all the leverage. Right now, I'm predicting Trump will not survive his second term. I think Vance doesn't have enough charisma to get people behind a 3rd term. Luckily, it doesn't seem likely Trump will have enough people who could make a new amendment, which means Trump would have to declare martial law. I truly hope that doesn't happen.


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03 Dec 2024, 2:12 pm

Jason Thayer wrote:
The Electoral college will sadly never go away. The GOP wants all the leverage. Right now, I'm predicting Trump will not survive his second term. I think Vance doesn't have enough charisma to get people behind a 3rd term. Luckily, it doesn't seem likely Trump will have enough people who could make a new amendment, which means Trump would have to declare martial law. I truly hope that doesn't happen.


I don't think it's just charisma. If Trump/Vance mess up the US economy as they sound keen on doing they'll find their even their base a lot less interested in supporting them.


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03 Dec 2024, 6:04 pm

Dox47 wrote:
I think the rightward shift in deep blue districts is the real story here, people who have experienced Democrat rule up close and personal swinging like 20 points away from it. A less polarizing GOP nominee might have gotten a real landslide, especially considering Trump was running against the entire media, and entertainment industries in addition to the Democrats.


What issues do you think made people switch to Trump?


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