Hezbollah and its intentions and capabilities?

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The Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported that Iran has supplied Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy forces with electromagnetic ordnance, which can disable communication systems and shut down radars. Rotem Mey-Tal, CEO of Asgard Systems, a company developing military technology for the defense industry and the initiator of the "30U30 in Defense" competition for 2024, discussed the issue.

First, what is electromagnetic ordnance?
"Describing electromagnetic ordnance is like talking about something no one has ever seen, but everyone understands exists and is present in reality—in our case, on the geopolitical and military chessboard of the Middle East. In essence, imagine lightning striking the building you live in, not hitting a lightning rod or antenna, but the entire building, causing all the electrical panels, water heaters, water and electrical systems, household appliances, computers, television systems, and even life-saving medical systems to stop working. It's like a power outage, but in this case, the systems can also burn out from the inside like in an electrical short."

Where is this threat aimed?
“I suspect the threat is more focused on bases, strategic facilities, desalination systems, and the Israeli power grid. However, it's impossible to say precisely, as such a weapon has never been used in history, so there are no sources or references to learn from."

Does it work like an electric wave or like conventional munitions and rockets?
"The physics are the same in any way they choose to use such capability, but I suspect the model will likely be in the form of a low-flying UAV. Much like the Iranian-Houthi attack of the upgraded Samad 3 UAV, which struck near the US Embassy in Tel Aviv last weekend, only instead of a kinetic warhead with gunpowder, the front of the UAV can be armed with an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) activation mechanism, which is triggered during the UAV's flight and emits an EMP upon contact with the target. But again, it's mostly speculation, as there is no documentation to date of the use of such a weapon or technology."

Is this an escalation? How do you think such a threat should be addressed?
"In my personal opinion, not only is this an escalation on the map of potential threats, but it should also be regarded as close to a non-conventional weapon threat. Just as no sovereign country would tolerate a non-conventional weapon threat, the same applies here. This is because, in 2024, electronic processors manage and operate all the vital systems in the State of Israel—infrastructure, medical systems, security, and military applications.

"Think of the analogy from the 1960s, which describes that in a nuclear explosion, only the cockroaches would survive. In the same vein, in an electromagnetic attack, the 'cockroaches' (a nickname for electronic components in electrical circuits) will not survive this time.

Hezbollah has recently accelerated the pace of its reconstruction efforts at a time when the Lebanese government has adopted a decision to disarm the terrorist organization, Western intelligence officials told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

"Hezbollah is rebuilding faster than the Lebanese army is dismantling," the officials told the Post

According to those officials, Hezbollah has managed to rearm itself - including with rockets - recruit new fighters into its ranks, and restore sites and bases belonging to the organization.

Most of Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts are taking place north of the Litani River, rather than in the area south of the river up to the Israeli border - a zone that, under the ceasefire agreement reached about a year ago, is supposed to be free of Hezbollah personnel and weapons.

A few weeks ago, the Lebanese government presented an action plan to disarm Hezbollah. Israel even agreed to scale back its military activity inside Lebanon, including the withdrawal from five outposts, on the condition that the Lebanese army take genuine action against the terrorist group.

Lebanese army showing motivation, willingness to operate against Hezbollah
The Lebanese army has indeed begun operating against Hezbollah. It has shown motivation and willingness to act, Israeli and foreign sources told the Post - but, as they noted, “the road to complete disarmament is still long.

On Tuesday, US President Trump’s envoy, Tom Barrack, warned in a post on X/Twitter that if Lebanon fails to disarm Hezbollah, Israel is likely to launch an attack against the Shiite organization.

Lebanon’s army has blown up so many Hezbollah arms caches that it has run out of explosives, as it races to meet a year-end deadline to disarm the Shiite terror group in the south of the country under a ceasefire agreed with Israel, two sources told Reuters.

The explosives shortage, which has not been previously reported, has not stopped the army quickening the pace of inspection missions to search for hidden weapons in the south, near Israel’s border, the two said, one of whom is a security source and the other a Lebanese official.

It would have been unimaginable for Lebanon’s military to embark on such a task at the zenith of Iran-backed Hezbollah’s power just a few years ago, and many observers were skeptical even after the ceasefire agreement.

But Hezbollah was hit hard by its war with Israel, with thousands of fighters killed, including figures in the upper echelons of both the military and political wings, including leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel has kept troops stationed at specific points in Lebanon, and has struck at Hezbollah attempts to rearm. The US has also kept up pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. US President Donald Trump’s deputy Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus is in Beirut this week to discuss momentum on disarmament with Lebanese officials.

As they wait for US deliveries of explosives charges and other military equipment, Lebanese troops are now sealing off sites they find instead of destroying them, said one of the sources and two other people briefed on the army’s recent activities.

Their searches yielded nine new arms caches in September, the two other briefed officials said. The security source said dozens of tunnels used by Hezbollah had also been sealed and more soldiers were being steadily recruited to deploy to the south.

Reuters spoke to 10 people, including Lebanese officials, security sources, diplomats and a Hezbollah official, all of whom said the army expects to complete its sweep of the south by the year’s end.

Disarmament outside country’s south is more complicated
Progress in the rest of the country looks far less certain.

Despite its advances, the army wants to avoid inflaming tensions and to buy time for Lebanon’s politicians to reach a consensus about the terror group’s arsenal in other parts of the country, a second Lebanese official who is close to Hezbollah and two security sources said.

Under the November 2024 ceasefire, Lebanon agreed that only state security forces should bear arms in the country. That would mean fully disarming Hezbollah.

The terror group has publicly committed to the ceasefire but is not a formal signatory. It insists the disarmament as mentioned in the text only applies to the south of Lebanon.

The government has said the plan is contingent on Israel halting its airstrikes, which Israel says come in response to Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire.

Hezbollah has not opposed the seizures of unmanned weapons caches in the south and has not fired on Israel since the November truce. However, it has publicly refused to relinquish its weapons elsewhere, hinting conflict was possible if the state moved against the group.

Moving north and east without a political consensus risks confrontation with Hezbollah fighters or street protests by Lebanon’s Shiite community, among whom Hezbollah remains popular, the two security sources and the second Lebanese official said.

The army still fears a standoff with Hezbollah’s constituency could again fracture the army, which split during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, one Lebanese official told Reuters.

Beirut relying on Israeli intel to locate Hezbollah arms
Lebanon’s army does not possess its own information on where Hezbollah’s stockpiles are located, two security sources told Reuters.

It has relied on intelligence supplied by Israel to “the Mechanism,” the sources said, referring to a committee established by the truce deal, chaired by the US and including France, Israel, Lebanon and UN peacekeepers.

Lebanon’s army does not possess its own information on where Hezbollah’s stockpiles are located, two security sources told Reuters.

It has relied on intelligence supplied by Israel to “the Mechanism,” the sources said, referring to a committee established by the truce deal, chaired by the US and including France, Israel, Lebanon and UN peacekeepers.

Hezbollah’s stance on disarmament has appeared fluid of late
In recent months, Hezbollah’s position about the future of its weapons has appeared fluid. In public statements, the terror group warned the state against trying to seize its arsenal — but also said it would be willing to discuss the fate of its arms if Israel commits to a real ceasefire.

In private, some representatives of the group have floated the possibility that progress could be made elsewhere if reconstruction allowed Shiite constituents to return to villages and towns destroyed in the war, the Lebanese official close to the group said. Others have flatly rejected decommissioning its weapons under any circumstances.

The group is still conducting internal discussions on the future of its arsenal and is also playing for time, the Lebanese official close to Hezbollah and a Lebanese political source said.

The security sources say that a lack of information makes it difficult for the army to estimate what exactly Hezbollah has stored, and where, including in the eastern Beqaa — a vast plain where Hezbollah is thought to store the bulk of its long-range missiles and other strategic arms.