Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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Whether you call it a pig, hog, sow, boar, or something else depends on where it is. When I was a kid, we had one of the largest pig operations in my area and we called them pigs more often than hogs no matter the size.

Slaughter weight can vary a lot, too. I've seen pigs slaughtered for food that were well under 250 pounds (113 kilograms). Around here, I think the general slaughter weight is 200 pounds to 325 pounds.

It came from an online article from "Ask a Teacher"
Source: Swine, Pigs and Hogs

An article published today on Common Dreams wrote:

Some mammals may also act as mixing vessels, leading to the emergence of new viruses that could be more harmful.

Pigs as Mixing Vessels

Pigs can be infected by avian and human influenza viruses as well as swine influenza viruses. Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which these viruses can reassort (i.e. swap genes) and new viruses that are a mix of pig, bird, and human viruses can emerge. The U.S. CDC explains that if the resulting new virus infects humans and can spread easily from person to person, a flu pandemic can occur.

Source: Scapegoating Wild Birds Won’t Solve Avian Flu: We Need Radical Farming Reform

It's been known for a long time that pigs and chickens are particularly dangerous as sources of new flu epidemics. That is why it is recommended to keep pigs and chickens far apart. According to a medical talk I watched years ago (around 1985 or so), that explains why so many new influenza epidemics originate from China where pigs and chickens tend to be kept together.

If the chickens get one influenza virus and the pigs get another influenza virus and they are in close proximity, it is easy for them to pass their influenza virus to the other species. I think that pigs are the more common to get both, but I'm not sure.

Each influenza A or B virus contains eight viral RNA segments. If a pig or other animal gets both influenza viruses and a cell is infected with both at the same time, a new influenza virus can be formed with eight RNA segments from a reassortment of the RNA segments from each of the two viruses infecting the cell.

Most of the time, the new influenza virus is thought to be unlikely to be able to thrive, but occasionally a new influenza virus can be created which is highly virulent.

By the way, the first time I saw one unusual practice, I was really surprised.

I was at someone's house early one evening to repair something and was leaving when it was getting dark. When I opened the door, there were a bunch of chickens waiting by the door. I was somewhat puzzled, but I walked through them without them scattering. After I passed through them, I turned around and the inhabitants were holding the door open for the chickens to enter the house. I think they had one bedroom converted into a chicken coop.

About four or five years later, I saw the same thing at another house.

Any more, if I see a house with chickens around it and nothing to act as a chicken coop, my assumption is that they keep the chickens inside the house at night.

In such cases, if the family is infected with one influenza and the chickens with another influenza, it is possible that a member of the family could become infected with both viruses and be the source of a new influenza virus.

kokopelli, you make an important point.

Many pandemics seem to originate in China. You wrote, "many new influenza epidemics originate from China where pigs and chickens tend to be kept together."

Pigs can act as mixing vessels in which these viruses can reassort (i.e. swap genes) and new viruses that are a mix of pig, bird, and human viruses can emerge.

A chicken is a type of domesticated bird.



Alarm bells have been sounding for awhile. A Bloomberg article from around a year ago titled "If Pigs Get Bird Flu, We Could Be In for a Real Nightmare". Pigs “are the perfect vessels through which an even more virulent strain could emerge,” said Nirav Shah, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at a 2 May 2024 briefing by the Council on Foreign Relations.

Interesting Research.

Annual flu shots could become a thing of the past under a new vaccine strategy developed and tested by University of Nebraska–Lincoln virologist Eric Weaver and his laboratory team.

Research findings published April 29 in Nature Communications reveal a possible breakthrough. The study, “Epitope-Optimized Vaccine Elicits Cross-Species Immunity Against Influenza A Virus,” describes a vaccine that protects against H1N1 swine flu and can also protect against influenza in humans and birds.

Swine vaccinated with the immunogens designed in Weaver’s laboratory exhibited no signs of illness after being exposed to a commonly circulating flu strain; developed antibodies against a multitude of viruses from several decades and multiple species; and maintained their immune response throughout the six-month longitudinal study.

Source: Nebraska-developed vaccine protects against swine, human and bird flu

Bird Flu is on the Move.

For the first time, poultry in the Philippines have tested positive for a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the H5N9 group. Further outbreaks linked to the H5N1 virus serotype have also been reported there. Last month, a young child in India succumbed to an infection with a virus of the same “family.”

Presence of the HPAI virus A(H5N9) strain has been detected for the first time in poultry in the Philippines. First in the country to test positive for this virus strain was a duck flock in Camarines Sur, a province in the far south of the island of Luzon, and part of the Bicol region.

First cases were detected in mid-April, according to the official notification from the Philippines’ veterinary body to the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). While the source of the virus is unknown, the report noted that this first infection was in a single flock, comprising 110 ducks. They had been grazing in a rice field, where they might have had contact with infected wild birds.

A new notification to WOAH confirms three outbreaks linked to the H5N1 virus variant in the period March 26 to April 4. Affected were two backyard flocks — one of native chickens and one of mixed species — and a commercial farm with around 450 ducks. They were located in two districts in Pampanga, which is a province in the Central Luzon region.

Recent human case reported in India

In early April, infection with the avian influenza A(H5N1) virus was reported in a two-year-old girl who died in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. This is according to the latest update from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The virus has since been identified as belonging to the clade 2.3.2.1a, which is most closely related to one that infected an Australian child who had traveled to India.

Philippines confirms emergence of new avian flu virus strain

Hong Kong is keeping a score card. The following information was published on 4 May 2025.

Confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) reported to WHO / Overseas health authorities / NHC since 2003

Year________Cases________Deaths
2003__________4_____________4
2004_________46____________32
2005_________98____________43
2006________115____________79
2007_________88____________59
2008_________44____________33
2009_________73____________32
2010_________48____________24
2011_________62____________34
2012_________32____________20
2013_________39____________25
2014_________52____________22
2015________145____________42
2016_________10_____________3
2017__________4_____________2
2018__________0_____________0
2019__________1_____________1
2020__________1_____________0
2021__________2_____________1
2022__________6_____________1
2023_________12_____________4
2024_________81_____________4
2025_________10_____________5
Overall______973___________470

Confirmed human cases of avian influenza A(H5N1) reported to WHO / Overseas health authorities/NHC since 2003

Countries/Areas_______________________ Cumulative Number of cases (Nov 2003 to May 2025)

Australia_________________________________________1
Azerbaijan_______________________________________8
Bangladesh______________________________________8
Cambodia______________________________________75
Canada_________________________________________2
Chile___________________________________________1
China__________________________________________56
Djibouti_________________________________________1
Ecuador________________________________________1
Egypt________________________________________359
India__________________________________________2
Indonesia_____________________________________200
Iraq___________________________________________3
Lao People’s Democratic Republic___________________3
Mexico_________________________________________1
Myanmar_______________________________________1
Nepal__________________________________________1
Nigeria_________________________________________1
Pakistan________________________________________3
Spain__________________________________________2
Thailand_______________________________________25
Turkey________________________________________12
United Kingdom_________________________________6
United States of America_________________________71
Vietnam______________________________________130

Source: Avian Influenza Report

Sometimes research results provide negative findings. This can be important information because it can tell you what doesn't work. I came across a research study that provides the following information.

We tested cross-neutralization against highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus in adults vaccinated with 2021–2023 seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the United Kingdom. Seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccines are unlikely to protect vulnerable persons against severe H5N1 disease during widespread transmission. Enhanced measures are needed to protect vulnerable people from H5N1 virus infection.

Source: Investigation of Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Neutralization by Quadrivalent Seasonal Vaccines, United Kingdom, 2021–2024

The normal influenza vaccines (flu shot) will not work against this deadly form of H5N1. This is a very different beast.

Over 40 of the world’s leading virologists have sounded the alarm on the increasing threat posed by the H5N1 bird flu virus, warning that it is evolving rapidly and inching closer to human-to-human transmission.

The virologists described H5N1 as a highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza, which has traditionally affected birds but has, in recent years, begun infecting mammals such as pigs and cattle a development they say may signal an imminent risk of human transmission.

Although human infections remain rare, the virus has an alarmingly high fatality rate, killing approximately half of those infected, according to the report. Experts stressed that the potential for a global outbreak must not be underestimated.

“We are at a critical point,” the scientists warned. “The virus is adapting to mammals. If it acquires the ability to spread efficiently between humans, we could be facing a pandemic far more deadly than COVID-19.”

Virologists Warn of H5N1 Bird Flu Pandemic

Bird Flu is on the move. This time Brazil.

Brazil, the world's largest chicken exporter, on Friday reported its first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza - also known as bird flu - on a commercial farm, triggering fears over global poultry supply chains. The disease has spread around the globe in the past years, leading to hundreds of millions of poultry being culled.

The South American country accounts for 35 per cent of the global chicken trade, shipping $10 billion worth of the poultry in 2024. Brazil sends chicken to some 150 countries around the world, with China and Japan among its top customers. China immediately banned imports from Brazil following the news, and other countries could follow. In 2023, Japan banned chicken imports from Brazil's Espirito Santo state after bird flu was found on a non-commercial farm there.

Source: Brazil confirms first bird flu case on farm, raising global supply fears

China and the European Union have suspended imports of chicken meat from Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of the commodity, after an outbreak of bird flu on a farm in the South American country, officials said Friday.

China is the main importer of Brazilian chicken, with 562,000 tons in 2024, or more than 10 percent of the total, according to Brazil’s ABPA meat association. The EU, for its part, imported more than 231,000 tons of chicken last year, totaling 4.5 percent of Brazil’s exports of the meat.

An outbreak of a new strain of “highly pathogenic avian influenza” (HPAI) has been confirmed on a farm in Montenegro in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, the ministry said.

Source: China, EU suspend chicken imports from Brazil over bird flu

China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the main destinations for Brazil’s chicken exports.

The outbreak in southern Brazil was identified at a farm supplying Vibra Foods, a Brazilian operation backed by Tyson Foods, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Source: Brazil confirms bird flu outbreak on commercial farm, triggering trade bans

Bird Flu is on the move. This time in Australia.

Australia is "surrounded" by the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. And it is morphing as sea animals and birds bring it ever closer to these shores. The killer virus that infiltrated Earth's most remote ecosystem continues to jump between animals, leaving a trail of death and devastation in its wake. Fifteen species have been detected with the virus in the region so far, from flying seabirds to penguins. The virus is now attacking pinnipeds — or as we know them, seals. Antarctic fur seals and elephant seals are heavily impacted, crabeater seals and Weddell seals have also died from the virus, and some leopard seals were detected as well.

Virus Ecologist Dr. Michelle Wille said the impacts on the animals before death are shocking. "It's really targeting the brains of these animals," she said. "Some of the sea lions are having really big respiratory distress, they're really struggling to breathe, and they are dying in large numbers.

'Pandemic potential' on our doorstep

I missed something. There is another very important medicine to enhance survival from H1N1 (and H5N1)

When people were struck with H1N1 (at the time it was called the Spanish Flu), they entered a death spiral in less then a day after showing symptoms. Fluid had filled both lugs. They could not breath air. It was so quick and so dangerous. As this article stated, "People were turning dark blue from lack of oxygen".



The article ends with "It's estimated about 500 million people - one third of the world's population became infected with the 1918 influenza virus."



"It is only a matter of a few hours then death comes. It is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible."

So what did I miss? BRONKAID Max. This nonprescription drug removes excess fluids in the lungs. It contains Ephedrine Sulfate 25mg Bronchodilator.

Ephedrine's great.

Bird Flu moves from one species to another. Is this happening in Brazil?

Montenegro: Brazilian authorities hope to determine by Tuesday whether a confirmed outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among wild birds (including a black necked swan) in a zoo in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul is connected with the country's first bird flu case on a commercial poultry farm in the same state, and official said on Monday.



Rosane Collares, a director at the state's agriculture department, fold Reuters that the genetic sequencing of the virus that killed around 100 waterfowl at the zoo in the town of Sapucaia do Sul would reveal if it is related to the outbreak in a commercial poultry farm in the town of Montenegro, where the H5N1 bird flu virus is already responsible for the death of 17,000 chickens, either directly from the disease or due to cautionary culling.

Source: Genetic test to reveal whether Brazil's bird flu case is linked to zoo deaths

Wildlife Rescue in Moyles Court said it has received calls ‘regarding sightings of dead, dying or distressed waterfowl in the local area’ over the past few weeks, including swans, geese, gulls and a cormorant.

Source: Bird flu case confirmed at wildlife centre

On May 19, Japan became the latest country to say that it had suspended some imports of poultry from parts of Brazil, joining a growing list that includes Brazil’s top chicken buyer China and the European Union.

Source: No poultry or poultry products imported from Brazil farm hit by bird flu outbreak, say S’pore authorities

Ticking Time Bomb



What are they missing? Many diseases are transmitted by insects, such as mosquitoes.

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The first major global review of bird flu in cats reveals an emerging threat of a potential human pandemic.

Spring is here, birds are on the move, and a new threat is spreading alongside them: bird flu (H5N1). This virus is changing fast and could be on the path to becoming a human pandemic. Scientists from the University of Maryland School of Public Health have recently published a major study in Open Forum Infectious Diseases highlighting a surprising new concern. They found that cats are catching bird flu more often, and they’re calling for urgent monitoring to help stop the virus before it can spread between people.

Bird Flu Is Now Killing Cats at a 90% Fatality Rate – Experts Warn It Could Jump to Humans