NASA-Funded Study Predicts Collapse of Civilization

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This NASA-funded study says that Western civilization is at risk of total collapse in the next few decades or so. A researcher at the University of Maryland used a mathematical model that apparently assumed 1.) a finite number of resources, 2.) increasing resource consumption, and 3.) increasing income stratification. This model looked at civilization in the abstract, and predicted that societies collapse under their own hubris.

So what do we think? I have not been able to find the actual report, though I would love to see its methodology. On its face, I am inclined to believe the methodology is a bit simplistic. Resource extraction may be a real enough threat, but there is almost always a substitution effect.

If anyone can find the actual study, I would be eternally grateful.

http://www.popsci.com/article/science/n ... vilization

It's been pulled offline by the University of Maryland. but NASA Watch has a link to a summary.

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2014/03/i ... nd-of.html

NASA doesn't endorse the findings.

In 1300 when Ibn Khaldun wrote the first report, he did not pull any punches.

All States before our time fell for the same reasons. They start with sound money, and fast justice in the marketplace, then debase the money as a hidden tax, and justice becomes who you know, and is long and costly.

In the end, "Money and talent move toward freedom," and those left are pillaged by a government that needs more and more Police, Tax Collectors, and spies on everyone.

The people are reduced to abused slaves, that only exist to feed the government, and when that is no longer possible, the government employees loot the state, overthrow the Prince, and his family, as the last people with money, and move on.

What is left is a ruin and a ghost town, where without oppresion crops grow, trade returns, and a new people who have lived in the poor lands come and brings the simple ideas of speedy justice, honest weights and measures, and sound money, gold, silver, copper.

Khaldun documented this cycle in all governments before his time, and claimed it universal.

We are in the last days.

It goes along with other historic rules,

"All governments that have taxed the people more than a third have fallen."

"All paper money has become worthless."

When I was young, 1963, a Dollar was an ounce of Silver, as it had been for over a hundred years.

Working a small job, at the gas station, a man could buy a car, house, marry, and raise two children, and a dog. He could also buy the station.

Many have been down this road before us.

I was expecting a '...unless NASA funding increased' punchline.

Here is a link to the actual study (also available further in in the link provided by simon_says);
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/pubs/ ... kalnay.pdf

Since this is not peer-reviewed, I shall defer final judgement until it has been published in a (reputable) scientific journal. A cursory Google check suggest that at least one of the authors (Eugenia Kalnay) is fairly recognized within the scientific community.

It should be noted, however, that the paper seems to be grounded squarely upon ecological economics (it draws heavily upon the works of Herman Daly, as evident by both the acknowledgements and the bibliography in the study). Ecological economics can barely be considered a scientific discipline due to the widespread failure within the discipline to separate questions of fact and value.

History is the crucible which has proven that study long before it was commissioned.

Amazing what we waste money doing research on.

So this is what NASA is doing now that space exploration is off the table? Save some resources and defund the rest of it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Study_of_History

If either of these are correct (which seems highly likely), the future doesn't look good for western civilization.

I've always wondered why predictions of societal collapse are seen as 'fringe' or 'radical', when every past society has collapsed. (Interestingly, there are Roman writings dating from not long before the Sack of Rome which declare the Empire to be greater than ever). Civilizations don't like to admit their own mortality.

Time to buy a mule.They will only go up in value after the crash.

[joke] Denial isn't just a river in Egypt. [/joke]

This is why civilizations do fail...and often for the same basic sociological mistakes. People don't want to learn the lessons of history and remain vigilant to prevent repeating them. Nobody wants to be the poor sod living when everything is going to hit the fan, so they refuse to see the evidence showing that it's coming to pass.

I wouldn't rush. He might die of old age before the crash actually happens.

Civilizations have been collapsing ever since there were civilizations.

They can live up to forty years.Maybe outlive me.

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That's fine, as long as the crash comes well within their lifespan. Personally, I'd just as soon get old and die before any collapse happens. I really don't feel like dealing with it, even though I'm probably better prepared than most suburbanites.

Rome lasted hundreds of years. So did Ancient Greece.

If you ever get the chance,go to a mule jump.People would ride mules to hunt and when you got to a fence you didn't want to cut it so the mules would jump it,flat footed.Nows it's just mostly competition.Some people take mules to Colorado to elk hunt.A good mule will let you shoot off it's back and they are more sure footed than a horse,need less feed also.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO-ULQOzV6s[/youtube][/youtube]