Another Iranian-Israeli war seen as almost inevitable

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Another Israel-Iran war is “only a matter of time,” according to a report by The New York Times, which says Iran still has a stockpile of enriched uranium and is racing to build thousands of missiles.

The piece, published Sunday, casts doubt on the idea that the 12-day war between the countries in June eliminated the threat of Iran’s nuclear program. Rather, it says that Middle East officials and experts increasingly believe Israeli and US strikes caused less damage to Tehran’s nuclear facilities than previously thought, and that both countries are preparing for the prospect of another round of conflict.

“Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, enough to make 11 nuclear weapons, is either buried under rubble, as Iran claims, or has been spirited away to a safe place, as Israeli officials believe,” the report said.

Other factors make another war likely, the report said. Among them is an ongoing impasse between the United States and Iran, which engaged in several rounds of talks before the US joined Israel’s bombing campaign in June. In addition, the 2015 nuclear deal brokered between Iran, the US and European countries expired recently, triggering heavy sanctions on Iran.

Those factors, coupled with intensive Iranian work on a new enrichment site it refuses to give international inspectors access to, make many in the Gulf think that another Israeli attack is “almost inevitable,” the report added.

In preparation for the next war, Tehran has greatly increased its missile production, working around the clock in hopes of being able to “fire 2,000 at once to overwhelm Israeli defenses, not 500 over 12 days,” Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told the Times.

“Israel feels the job is unfinished and sees no reason not to resume the conflict, so Iran is doubling down preparedness for the next round,” Vaez said, adding, however, that there was no suggestion that any renewed fighting was imminent.

While there have been some attempts to revive talks on a new nuclear deal, they have yet to yield results, and last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to cast doubt on whether they would be able to progress any further.

“The Americans sometimes say they would like to cooperate with Iran. Cooperation with Iran is not possible as long as the US continues to support the accursed Zionist regime, maintains military bases, and interferes in the region,” Khamenei said in remarks transcribed by state media.

“The arrogant nature of the United States accepts nothing other than submission.”

Vaez told the Times that Iran’s top officials are divided over how to proceed amid the impasse with the US.

Some, he said, want to keep pursuing a new nuclear agreement with the US, believing that this will be better for Iran as the country’s roughly 92 million people face soaring inflation and severe water shortages.

But not everyone agrees, Vaez told the Times, and some would prefer another confrontation, believing it is futile to try and negotiate with Trump, who withdrew from the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement during his first term.

Regardless of preferred approach, Vaez said the top officials agree on one thing: That another round of fighting with Israel is inevitable.