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Is the Horse race over? american election.

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JakobVirgil
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27 Sep 2012, 5:58 pm

[[Nate Silver]]


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Jacoby
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27 Sep 2012, 6:03 pm

which article do you want us to read?



JakobVirgil
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27 Sep 2012, 6:11 pm

Jacoby wrote:
which article do you want us to read?


Oh sorry the articles are good but the sidebar on the right gives Nate's Results.


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Jacoby
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27 Sep 2012, 6:41 pm

So the question is election over? No but Obama is certainly favored right now. We still have the debates although I doubt Romney preforms well in them and there always those October surprises. We don't know how the Israel/Iran situation might play out or what economic news will be. I have hard time believing Obama will get a larger vote share this time around with how bad economy is.

I think 2012 will probably be closer to 2004 than it is 2008 except in with parties reversed. Bush was leading Kerry by a similar amount in national polls but final result was very close. It's kind of weird actually when you think about how the candidates mirror their 2004 counterparts. Obama is the relatable incumbent who'd you'd like to have a beer with and Romney is the out of touch elitist like John Kerry.



ArrantPariah
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27 Sep 2012, 7:05 pm

And, they both speak French.



simon_says
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27 Sep 2012, 7:10 pm

The October surprise is that Mitt Romney lost in September.



ruveyn
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27 Sep 2012, 7:19 pm

The horse race is over. The horse's ass lost.

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ArrantPariah
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27 Sep 2012, 8:31 pm

Things can change in a month. Remember when people actually thought that the crazy woman was going to be the Republican nominee? Then that coot from Texas? Then Herman Cain? Then Newt Gingrich?

Plus, Mr. Romney has Karl Rove on his side. Plus, millions of dollars to spend on advertising, to which the sheeple listen.



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27 Sep 2012, 9:09 pm

Watching everything that led up to Mitt Romney's selection as the Republican candidate brings me an awful conclusion.

Mitt Romney's basically the Best of the Rest. The party seems to be so wildly concerned with maintaining a certain image that candidates that have the potential to win don't get anywhere near it. They'd rather run a near-corpse with a rodeo clown sidekick against Obama than, say, Rudolph Juilianni or anyone remotely interesting. I think that Mitt Romney only got this far by being the tool who kept his mouth shut the longest.