Russian army has invaded the Crimea
Kraichgauer
Veteran
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,798
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
There's also the fact that Crimea has historically been a Russian region, has a majority ethnic Russian population with mainly pro-Russian Tatars, and already is under Russian control which suggests that its link to Ukraine is really tenuous at best at this point, from many different standpoints.
While it might seem sensible to just partition Ukraine, and let Russia have the Crimea and adjacent areas, the fact is, Putin has stated in the past the Ukraine is not a real country, and is just a province of Russia. That being the case, I don't think Putin would stop with the Pro-Russian territories, but would use protecting the Pro-Russian element there as a pretext to gobbling up the whole Ukraine after getting his foot in the door. This is very much a reenactment of Hitler invading Czechoslovakia with the pretext of protecting ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland.
_________________
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
thomas81
Veteran
Joined: 2 May 2012
Age: 42
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,147
Location: County Down, Northern Ireland
What, even if it results in a nuclear exchange?
Don't be insane.
There's also the fact that Crimea has historically been a Russian region, has a majority ethnic Russian population with mainly pro-Russian Tatars, and already is under Russian control which suggests that its link to Ukraine is really tenuous at best at this point, from many different standpoints.
While it might seem sensible to just partition Ukraine, and let Russia have the Crimea and adjacent areas, the fact is, Putin has stated in the past the Ukraine is not a real country, and is just a province of Russia. That being the case, I don't think Putin would stop with the Pro-Russian territories, but would use protecting the Pro-Russian element there as a pretext to gobbling up the whole Ukraine after getting his foot in the door. This is very much a reenactment of Hitler invading Czechoslovakia with the pretext of protecting ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland.
If Russia tried to move into Central or the rest of Eastern Europe beyond Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova, then it would run into NATO, resulting in an immediate gigantic conflagration. Russia would likely not receive much support for such actions from the international community and so would be alone against NATO; NATO vs. Russia by itself is probably a NATO victory, though it would take longer for NATO with Russia than some of the other countries NATO has fought conventional wars with. Of course, the big danger is nuclear warfare in such a scenario.
_________________
"You have a responsibility to consider all sides of a problem and a responsibility to make a judgment and a responsibility to care for all involved." --Ian Danskin
There's also the fact that Crimea has historically been a Russian region, has a majority ethnic Russian population with mainly pro-Russian Tatars, and already is under Russian control which suggests that its link to Ukraine is really tenuous at best at this point, from many different standpoints.
While it might seem sensible to just partition Ukraine, and let Russia have the Crimea and adjacent areas, the fact is, Putin has stated in the past the Ukraine is not a real country, and is just a province of Russia. That being the case, I don't think Putin would stop with the Pro-Russian territories, but would use protecting the Pro-Russian element there as a pretext to gobbling up the whole Ukraine after getting his foot in the door. This is very much a reenactment of Hitler invading Czechoslovakia with the pretext of protecting ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland.
Sounds like somebody just wants the Russians in.
What, even if it results in a nuclear exchange?
Don't be insane.
Hey, at leas these will no longer be the wasteful defense spending the left is always whining about. We'll actually get to use them.
_________________
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
- Thomas Jefferson
We don't really have a major interest in Ukraine and Russia is in fundamental decline, there is no impending doom. The biggest worry is that Putin keeps legitimizing balkanization, based on Russia's demographics, he is dancing with the devil on that.
He is not going to gobble up the entirety of Ukraine. It looks like he is going to make a big effort to separate Crimea but there are reasons to be worried about his ability to accomplish that easily (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... ating.html).
He will most likely attempt to do the same as he accomplished in Georgia. Break off the pro-Russia parts and then make a play for political control in the capital. The big issue is not that the west keeps getting involved its that event though we have more or let him have his way in Ukraine, he still keeps offering the people there deals they don't really want to accept. Eastern Europe need not be zero sum, but Putin sees it that way and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for him.
_________________
Life is real ! Life is earnest!
And the grave is not its goal ;
Dust thou art, to dust returnest,
Was not spoken of the soul.
The lease on the navel base gives Russia the right to defend it, and to bring in 20,000 troops.
It also states they will be available for local disasters, to aid the local governments. That is what they are doing.
The east and south won the last election, the west lost. This is like Mitt and the Republicans, plus Mormons, taking over Washington, and claiming the whole country.
The new mob in Kiev includes the Social Nationalist, who are the same with the words reversed.
Keeping the peace till another election can be held is not invasion.
Putin does want a whole Ukraine, because they can win the next election.
As Putin said, you cannot have Diplomatic Relations with a Street Mob.
Besides, when the gas is cut off, the mob in Kiev will lose support.
The same for not making payrolls, pensions, and the destruction of the money.
100,000 can overthrow a government, but they cannot support 46 million people.
It will cost $100,000,000 a Day just to keep up the government by fraud.
So far, no one has offered a dime.
Even if the country was partitioned, the West would fall apart from within.
thomas81
Veteran
Joined: 2 May 2012
Age: 42
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,147
Location: County Down, Northern Ireland
What, even if it results in a nuclear exchange?
Don't be insane.
Hey, at leas these will no longer be the wasteful defense spending the left is always whining about. We'll actually get to use them.
]
...what, and turn the Earth into an uninhabitable radioactive dustball in the process.
Thats hardly what i would call getting my money's worth.
Just as long as you keep in mind that one of these could be headed for you and everyone you care about.
lotuspuppy
Veteran
Joined: 14 Jan 2008
Age: 35
Gender: Male
Posts: 995
Location: On a journey to the center of the mind
The U.S. will not use military force, and neither will anyone else in Europe. The Obama White House has been extremely reluctant to use force, particularly in the face of opposition at home. It would be hard to picture how he would be willing to directly engage a great power such as Russia.
What remains to be seen is if Obama or anyone else will use its many other levers they have. Sec. of State John Kerry said the U.S. might freeze Russian assets and deny them visas. If the EU did something similar, that could seriously damage the Russian economy, and isolate the Kremlin from Russia's other domestic players. I just don't know if anyone will carry out these actions. Putin seems to think the West will just slap his wrist and move on.
I hope this situation gets diffused somehow. This threatens to undermine European stability that took decades to build.
thomas81
Veteran
Joined: 2 May 2012
Age: 42
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,147
Location: County Down, Northern Ireland
thomas81
Veteran
Joined: 2 May 2012
Age: 42
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,147
Location: County Down, Northern Ireland
Similar Topics | |
---|---|
We are about to be invaded. |
10 Apr 2024, 8:52 am |
Putin Admits He Invaded Ukraine "to impress Jodie Foster" |
02 Apr 2024, 2:48 pm |
Is it reasonable to conscript the unemployed in the army? |
24 Apr 2024, 12:50 pm |
Secret army of women who broke Nazi codes get recognition |
23 Apr 2024, 8:35 pm |