Why trump can’t win

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So far from what I’ve seen the poles he’s leading in are quite biased.

I still don’t think he has much of a chance of winning. I really don’t think the math adds up.

He’s only getting 50-51% of republican primary voters.. the most politically active voters. He can’t win on their votes alone - even if he doesn’t lose any of them along the way.. which he will as his legal laundry continues to get aired.

As much as we all have better things to do with our time, it’s going to be quite the entertaining show watching him unravel.

His presidency will be a disaster for Europe in terms of what I imagine his foreign policy towards Russia will be.

I hope he tanks when it comes to voting time.

Yep. And he’d be terrible for US-Mexico relations with all the tension about the border. That would be a problem considering all the factories under construction in Mexico to make goods there instead of China.

But ya no one wants to see what he’d let putin do if putin’s still alive doing putin things.

Obviously I hope he tanks when it comes to voting time too.. but beyond hoping; I Think he will. Way too many cards stacked against him.

Let us hope that you are right.

Someone with social anxiety may find the political situation just too triggering and just stay home rather than vote. If you have this issue you may be able to vote via mail instead.

Surely the Democrats can come up with a better candidate than the geriatric and very average Biden?

Why though ? His record is pretty solid for his term as potus and US presidents with a good economy tend to always get re-elected. That’s the most likely reason they haven’t switched out for someone else.

Trump is favourite with the bookmakers:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

The stats say the economy is great but people don't perceive it that way. People vote based on perceptions. And people perceive him as bad on the economy, and too old. If Biden wins it will be because they judged Trump to be worse not because they think he is a good President.

It is rare for an incumbent to be successfully challenged by a member of his party. If the challenge is unsuccessful a president can get revenge on you in a number of ways.

This year there is fear that if you challenge Biden you will be blamed for ending Democracy because you divided the Democrats thus handing the election to Trump.

How can the economy be doing great by Most every metric yet people don’t perceive it as good ? It can’t be both at the same time.. I mean, what is this, Schrödinger’s economy ??

Perhaps the metrics on what determines an economy is good are not based on the economic well-being of us average citizens.

I just want people to recognize that the Republicans use the very same metrics for determining a good economy, and thus they are NOT our friend in calling out the problems with our economy. In fact, they just make things worse, because they just want to cut taxes for the rich even more and watch the wealth gap further.

That is what the political pundits are trying to figure out. Here are some theories that make sense.

Inflation has eased a lot which mean prices are not rising nearly as fast as they were, but prices are still significantly higher than they were when Biden took office.

Some member recently posted a video here about how health insurance covers less, pensions are non existent, or not paying what was promised so people do feel the system is rigged against them.

People in what were relatively secure middle and upper class careers feel threatened by AI.

I would add the increasing dysfunction in the country which has led to skyrocketing rates of mental illness. I would think that if you are not well mentally, and feel country is going in general in a bad direction, these will bleed over into how you feel about the economy.

O. I would have said America’s economic perception problem lies in right wing propaganda. Faux news and that troll trumplestiltskin keep saying over and over that the Biden economy is in shambles.

Hitler propaganda 101.. tell a lie big enough and repeat it often enough and people will believe it.

It’s so weird listening to some news outlets and commentators reporting facts and statistics, and then trump and faux say whatever BS they want and for some reason hella gullible people opt to believe it regardless of reality.

Propaganda needs to use something with at least some basis in reality. If progressives would stop telling flyover country, the economy is great, you are automatically privileged and racist, and you are stupid maybe a lot of these people would not be so vulnerable to Don the con artist and friends.

In progressive bubbles which tend to have higher incomes they are doing well under the rules they set up. Having both spouses working two jobs and still living paycheck to paycheck is something those living in those bubbles probably will not have to deal with. Choosing between feeding your family and taking your meds is not a choice they have to make.

Of course there are plenty of MAGA racists that are doing quite well and feel emboldened by Trump to be the bully they always wanted to be. Thing is MAGA’s do not have a monopoly on deplorables, far from it.

There is no safe place if Trump wins. He's pro-Russia and anti-Allies. He'll be an absolute disaster for the world order. Especially considering everything he said he believes he's allowed to do. There'll be no telling him he can't when he's packed his staff with loyalists.
As for if he can win... yes he can. What have we learned so far? People aren't motivated by logic or data. Think of all the people who'll vote for him in spite of his rape and fraud convictions. Who'll ignore the legal cases coming up. And that's people on the Republican side.
People are getting emotional and blaming Biden over the Gaza Genocide. Does anyone think Trump would bring a good outcome? Of course not, but Biden is in, so throw the vote to Trump apparently.

One thing I've noticed is that the QMAGAnon is shielded from negative footage of Trump. They'll see every gaff from Biden, but none from Trump. If I were on Biden's team, I'd make sure that got out. Indeed, when those two get on stage together, it may be hard to hide. The hardliners will celebrate this aspect of Trump, but the less committed might finally realise that it's not Biden that the world leaders laugh at.
Trump is a loser, and his followers need to be SHOWN that fact.

His true cult members only get their information from him.. troth sencial, faux news, qanon etc. They have blinders on so they won’t accidentally see or hear the truth.