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Ishmael
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03 Oct 2008, 4:57 am

I can't help but wonder; with the inevitable, though apparently postponed, collapse of the United States as a so-called super power, will it be able to uphold it's end? The American military is overtaxed as it stands, and with increasing military unpopularity and a faltering economy, would Americas inability to assist Australia and New Zealand in the likely event of Chinese expansionism, or Indonesias growing instability and anti-Australian sentiments - not to mention the constant civil wars amongst the pacific nations Australia must always play peacekeeper at - would the current American inability to render even token assistance ruin the century of alliance between Aus and Usa? Consider the changing world, of course, and essentially worst-case scenarios. Granted, Australia could never be defeated - as anybody who knows the purpose of the ADF's selective choice in equipment, and the designs of our cities should realize. But, even still - the death be destruction would be higher, because such a war would be fought on a narrower front - no divide and conquer with no friends to help the conquer.
Unlikely events, of course, but not unprecedented. England may help, but they don't have a teriffic track record there. But would an inability to help lessen the damage build resentment at lack of foresight and lead to strains between the nations?


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LeKiwi
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03 Oct 2008, 12:54 pm

I hope so. Australia is turning into mini-America. And with all due respect, I can't stand America.


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Ishmael
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03 Oct 2008, 1:01 pm

LeKiwi wrote:
I hope so. Australia is turning into mini-America. And with all due respect, I can't stand America.


You know, I was about to disagree with you, but then I spoke to some teenagers... They spoke American, wear American brands and watch American TV.
But, I will correct you on one note - nothing about Australia is mini.


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DentArthurDent
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03 Oct 2008, 10:10 pm

Curious to have you expand on your theory that Aus cannot be defeated, also I think there is very little chance of Indonesia attacking us and if China wanted to expand nothing short of nuclear weapons could stop her. China has not shown any real aggression in the last 70 or so years unless you count Taiwan. If anything our close strategic alliance to the US is what makes us a target.


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Ishmael
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03 Oct 2008, 10:32 pm

DentArthurDent, these are hypotheticals. It's no secret the Chinese government is still harbouring expansionist ideas - which is making Japan nervous. Once world oil supplies dwindle enough, China will try to sieze monopoly. After all, we've only fifty years of oil left, and whoever controls the tanks and bombers controls the world. As for Indonesia, the strong anti-Australian views held there are kept in check only by U.S. treaty - they don't want to be attacked on two fronts. We all remember the various military "accidents" by the Indonesians over time. As for why Australia can't lose; many of our cities, noticeably Adelaide, have myriad underground shelters and escape tunnels. The ADF equipment and training is for combat in harshest Australian conditions. An enemy might take Australia, but they couldn't keep it. Nukes would be ineffective barring surprise attack before an evacuation. Enemy supply lines would be impossible, the conditions something they would not be prepared for. It's difficult to fight determined, technologically advanced invisible guerillla's.
While our alliance to America makes us a target in some respects, benefits outway the cost - so long as America holds it's own end up.


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DentArthurDent
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04 Oct 2008, 1:46 am

Ishmael wrote:
We all remember the various military "accidents" by the Indonesians over time.


Other than Balibo and a couple of stray bullets aimed at INTERFET I'm not sure what you are talking about. Mind you I only arrived in '89 so I may have missed something. Personally I dont see Indonesia as a threat, as in, I dont think they want to attack us. I would get a bit concerned if they started to ramp up their airforce. If we are still reliant upon oil 20 / 30 years from now there will be global trouble, I suspect however that we will have sorted out alternate sources of energy by then. A greater threat to world stability is going to be water resources, you only need to look to the middle east for an example.


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Ishmael
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04 Oct 2008, 2:17 am

Granted, Indonesia wouldn't try to attack a superior force. But they'd have no qualms about sneak attacks and kicking us when we are down. Pro-genocidal militaries have a habit of that.
As for the oil issue, in my opinion, it's not guaranteed viable alternatives - at least with enough power for military hardware - could come around anytime soon. If it does; what nations would hold that power, and what would they use it for? What would other nations do to get that power?


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Haliphron
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04 Oct 2008, 3:17 am

Ishmael wrote:
DentArthurDent, these are hypotheticals. It's no secret the Chinese government is still harbouring expansionist ideas - which is making Japan nervous. Once world oil supplies dwindle enough, China will try to sieze monopoly. After all, we've only fifty years of oil left, and whoever controls the tanks and bombers controls the world. As for Indonesia, the strong anti-Australian views held there are kept in check only by U.S. treaty - they don't want to be attacked on two fronts. We all remember the various military "accidents" by the Indonesians over time. As for why Australia can't lose; many of our cities, noticeably Adelaide, have myriad underground shelters and escape tunnels. The ADF equipment and training is for combat in harshest Australian conditions. An enemy might take Australia, but they couldn't keep it. Nukes would be ineffective barring surprise attack before an evacuation. Enemy supply lines would be impossible, the conditions something they would not be prepared for. It's difficult to fight determined, technologically advanced invisible guerillla's.
While our alliance to America makes us a target in some respects, benefits outway the cost - so long as America holds it's own end up.


I dont feel the slightest sympathy for Japan being anxious about Chinese expansionism considering what the Japanese did to China during WWII. It just might mean that Japan will be forced to own up to their crimes of the past and pay reparations.
Furthermore, the "coming collapse of the United States" is Not happening! Even if America must end its *empire* that doesnt mean the US will come to an end. We'll be kind of like Britain the way it is today-a post colonial power. As long as the US can protect itself and its interests I dont see why we really even need hegemony at all.



Ishmael
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04 Oct 2008, 3:57 am

Well, personally the only instances of hegemony I noticed were superficial. But, I don't think Japan ought to pay for WWII by way of possible Chinese aggression. I will never trust the older generation of Japanese; too many horror stories told by Australian survivor slaves. But I wouldn't suggest a younger generation be held responsible for occurances long before they were born. That was why europe was in a constant state of warfare throughout history, and why many South American, Asian, African and Eastern European nations still are.


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Haliphron
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04 Oct 2008, 11:24 am

Ishmael wrote:
Well, personally the only instances of hegemony I noticed were superficial. But, I don't think Japan ought to pay for WWII by way of possible Chinese aggression. I will never trust the older generation of Japanese; too many horror stories told by Australian survivor slaves. But I wouldn't suggest a younger generation be held responsible for occurances long before they were born. That was why europe was in a constant state of warfare throughout history, and why many South American, Asian, African and Eastern European nations still are.


But Germany was made to pay reparations to Israel for the Holocaust until the year 2000. What Im talking about is for the Japanese Goverment to make reparations and not for the younger generations of Japanese to be penalized.



Ishmael
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04 Oct 2008, 11:50 am

There has been a dispute within the Japanese Government about that very thing for some years now.


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DentArthurDent
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07 Oct 2008, 3:56 pm

@ Haliphron
So you think the best way to educate the Japanese youth is to invade them and carry out atrocities :roll:

BTW several generations of Japanese have been paying for the war. Ever heard of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, you do realise that before those bombs were dropped the Japanese were very close to capitulation. They have had genetic problems since. The bombs were practically an experiment, they certainly were not needed to bring about Japans surender

By your logic Japan should drop a couple of bombs onto the US.


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Ishmael
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07 Oct 2008, 11:00 pm

Where do you get that they were close to surrendering? They were getting dug in, ready to fight to the death! The bombs killed a lot, yes - but many, many more on both sides would have died if the bombs hadn't been dropped. Remember the psychology of the imperial Japanese.


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DentArthurDent
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07 Oct 2008, 11:18 pm

Ishmael its pretty common knowledge that Japan was on its knees and had been trying to sort out a surrender for nearly a year. The Yanks did not want a negotiated surrender and also needed to test the bomb

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_of_Japan


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08 Oct 2008, 11:02 am

DentArthurDent wrote:
Ishmael its pretty common knowledge that Japan was on its knees and had been trying to sort out a surrender for nearly a year. The Yanks did not want a negotiated surrender and also needed to test the bomb

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_of_Japan


More information has come to light that contradicts the generally accepted dogma. There were factions in the Japanese government for each alternative, but before the atomic bombs were used, the continuation faction had the upper hand. Even after the bombs were used, things were not immediately settled. I recommend you look at something called a "book". You have heard of these "books", have you not? I specifically recommend Hiroshima in History, published in 2007.

Matters are not nearly so cut-and-dried as anti-American historians would like us to think.

At one time it was "common knowledge" that bad smells caused dysentery.



Ishmael
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08 Oct 2008, 11:10 am

The most popular "surrender" treaty the Japanese were trying to push before the bombs would have allowed them to keep the territories they'd captured, subjugate the people of those territories and keep their captured slaves. Like hell that would be allowed!
Japan put it either at continued fighting or acceptance of those terms. Obviously, the terms were rejected, and the Japanese kept fighting. You have to actually understand the psychology of Imperial Japan.


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