Do you think Barack Obama will win in 2012?

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I think he has a 2/3 chance of winning.

(And I don't like him. Believe me, I don't want to be right)

1. The Republican Party is divided and lacks a definitive leader
2. Barack Obama now has more political experience.
3. Barack Obama is more charismatic than the Republicans
4. Barack Obama, regardless of his skill in office, is skilled on the campaign trail.
5. Despite his unpopularity, he still leads over Republicans in polls.

Funny, a group of us bleeding hearts was talking about this over the weekend.

As one pointed out, we said at the time of the election that anyone who won in 2008 was likely to be a one term president. So ... the odds were always stacked against him.

And I would admit there are a lot of supporters feeling they did not get what they wanted.

But I'm also not seeing better alternatives.

It's all still up in the air, to be honest. A lot can happen between now and the next election.

All I really want to know is: how many supreme court justices will need to be replaced in the next potential term?

I think people will vote with their wallets in mind and it won't matter how much control the president actually has over the economy.

Good economy - keep the incumbent.
Bad economy - try someone else.

What event is Obama ruining in the Olympics?

Unless the Republicans can put up somebody better, he just might. I think Donald Trump could beat him, but the minute he suggested taking away the power of the bankers he'd be dead, look at JFK. Considering that anybody and everybody who wants reform tends to meet a violent and permanent finale, from JFK to Sonny Bono, and how opponents of the bankers among the general population routinely "disappear", I don't think it would make much difference who wins, we'd get the same result. The bankers will simply kill everybody on earth except the top 200 million, and reseed the planet with their superior genes. That's the ultimate goal.

I still see no reason at all Obama would not win the next elections. Which is neutral news for me because it doesn't seem that there is any alternative to him that is simultaneously realistic and GOOD anyway.

Depends on who the GOP nominates for the 2012 ticket.

If the GOP nominates someone nobody likes and/or has heard of,
then Obama will win, 3/4 chance.

If not, then Obama is screwed come 2012.

None of Barack Obama's skills or positive attributes are remotely-relevant to the many who are going to vote Republican, regardless..
The "undecided" segment of the population whom the candidates are campaigning to is comparably-tiny compared to a few decades ago-
the people who are truly just as likely to vote for a Republican vs. a Democrat for President are very few and far between in my experience.

I'd say he has about a 60% chance of being reelected. He's not popular, the economy sucks, and he broke about every campaign promise he ever made. He has the advantage of being an incumbent and can raise a massive amount of money. It really depends on who the GOP nominates. Isn't really a big deal tho if he gets reelected, he won't be able to push any legislation at all thru and we'd likely have deadlock since the GOP will have the House and Senate since the Democrats have like double the seats to defend in 2012 and 2014 because of their huge gains in 2006 and 2008. It's conceivable that the GOP could have a supermajority in the senate going into 2016 presidential election so maybe it would better for Obama to lose for you leftys out there.

I think Obama has a good chance of winning. Since the Republicans gained a majority in the house and started insisting on policies that would actually help the economy - extending low tax rates and making at least a minimal start to cutting the budget - Obama has been good at conceding to those policies with ill grace. That way, he gets the benefits of the stronger economy resulting from the Republican policies, while also being able to claim he fought against those policies to get the vote of those who don't understand economics.