Satellite data shows up climate forecasts

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06 Nov 2023, 10:45 am

"Thawing permafrost is roiling the Arctic landscape, driven by a hidden world of changes beneath the surface as the climate warms"

Quote:

How big of a problem thawing permafrost is likely to become for the climate is an open question. We know it is releasing greenhouse gases now. But the causes and consequences of permafrost thaw and associated landscape transitions are active research frontiers.

One thing is certain: The thawing of previously frozen landscapes will continue to change the face of high-latitude ecosystems for years to come. For people living in these areas, slumping land and destabilizing soil will mean living with the risks and costs, including buckling roads and sinking buildings.

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08 Nov 2023, 11:11 am

"This year set to be warmest in 125,000 years, EU scientists say"

Quote:

This year is set to be the world's warmest in 125,000 years, European Union scientists said on Wednesday, after data showed last month was the hottest October on record by a massive margin.

Last month exceeded the previous highest October average temperature, from 2019, by 0.4 degrees Celsius, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said, describing the temperature anomaly as "very extreme".

That has made 2023 as a whole "virtually certain" to be the warmest year recorded, C3S said in a statement.

The heat is a result of continued greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, combined with the emergence this year of the naturally occurring El Nino climate pattern, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The current hottest year on record is 2016 — another El Nino year — although 2023 is on course to overtake that.

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11 Nov 2023, 12:43 pm

"The rich are fleeing the climate crisis by scrambling to buy chalets in the Alps"

Quote:

A study of the ski property sector by real estate agency Knight Frank showed the Alpine region—where winter temperatures typically move into the low 20 degrees Fahrenheit—was enjoying renewed interest from wealthy buyers.

Prices across 24 resorts in Switzerland and France rose 4.4% on average last year, with a couple of destinations in Switzerland enjoying double-digit price increases.

Rising demand now appears to be driven by nervous customers from sunnier regions looking for a chalet as a second home further from the equator.

“There are clear challenges ahead for ski resorts, not least climate change, the need to upgrade infrastructure, and strict planning rules,” said Kate Everett-Allen, Knight Frank’s head of global residential research.

“But the market is evolving, attracting buyers from further afield (Asia and Middle East) and from southern Europe, as recent heatwaves prompt some second homeowners to pivot northwards.”

"Climate change causes a mountain peak frozen for thousands of years to collapse"

Quote:

Fluchthorn in the Silvretta Alps is now around 60 feet (19 m) shorter than it was before — and more mountains are expected to follow suit as temperatures thaw the permafrost holding them together.

Part of a Swiss mountain's summit has collapsed, sending more than 3.5 million cubic feet (100,000 cubic meters) of rock crashing into the valley below. The incident was likely a result of thawing permafrost — and scientists have warned similar events are to be expected as climate change causes ancient frozen ground to degrade.

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11 Nov 2023, 12:47 pm

Gosh!

you're ...beating us to death!

But thats okay.

Its stuff that needs to be aired.

Just noticed a video about how "Spain is becoming a desert" because of climate change. An extension of the Sahara?

Maybe all of the climate zones will just move north.

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11 Nov 2023, 4:38 pm

I know I'm leaning heavily on the topic but I think it is of huge importance. Like end-of-times (in slow motion) important. The more folk who are seriously concerned about it the better: their votes might help, their voices might help, and maybe enough people making small changes might help.

Well, actually, I think the topic is interesting even it nothing is done to improve it. It is sort of a real-life science fiction horror story. I'm curious how bad it will get in my lifetime and whether humankind will be able to turn it around.

And I found those last two articles noteworthy:
(1) Some rich people are moving to the Alps because of Climate Change
(2) Climate Change might get them anyways.

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16 Nov 2023, 7:33 pm

"Rich nations 'likely' met $100 bn climate finance goal: OECD"

Quote:

Wealthy nations likely met their goal of providing $100 billion in annual climate finance to poorer nations last year -- two years later than promised and only a fraction of the "extensive needs", the OECD said Thursday
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In 2009, richer countries promised to reach $100 billion annually in funding for these priorities by 2020.

Failure to meet the target on time has damaged trust in international climate negotiations.

In the most up to date figures, the OECD said richer countries reached $89.6 billion in total funding for 2021.

"Based on preliminary and as yet unverified data, the goal looks likely to have already been met as of 2022," said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann in the foreword to the latest report.

But he added experts estimate that developing countries will need to spend about a trillion dollars a year by 2025 for climate investments, rising to roughly $2.4 trillion each year between 2026 and 2030.

Highlighting added.

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18 Nov 2023, 4:50 pm

Double Retired wrote:

BTDT wrote:

I've taken advantage of the climate change to grow a camellia plant in central Connecticut. It is 15 years old and blooms most years. It started blooming this year on Halloween! I also my blue Hydrangea to bloom for the first time in over twenty years! Normally it gets whacked by winter and won't bloom in my yard.

USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map

Quote:

The 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones and further divided into 5-degree F half-zones.

It sounds like the charts might need updating!

"USDA Releases Plant Hardiness Zones Map Update for 2023"
:cyclopsani:

Dated November 17, 2023.

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20 Nov 2023, 7:13 pm

"Scientists sound the alarm as the world briefly smashes through 2-degree warming limit for the first time"

Quote:

For the first time, the global average temperature on Friday last week was more than 2 degrees Celsius hotter than levels before industrialization, according to preliminary data shared on X by Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, based in Europe.

The threshold was crossed just temporarily and does not mean that the world is at a permanent state of warming above 2 degrees, but it is a symptom of a planet getting steadily hotter and hotter, and moving towards a longer-term situation where climate crisis impacts will be difficult — in some cases impossible — to reverse.

“Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C,” she wrote.

"World on pace to blow past Paris climate targets, UN says"

Quote:

The findings come amid record setting global temperatures and as the amount of planet warming pollution in the atmosphere reaches new heights. It also underscores the enormity of the task facing climate negotiators as they prepare for talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, later this month.

The U.N. found global emissions need to fall 42 percent by 2030 to put the world on track to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 or by 28 percent to hold temperature increases to the 2 C targeted by the Paris Agreement. Doing so would require a sudden reversal in global emission trends, which have risen steadily in recent decades. The longer it takes the world to meaningfully cut emissions, the more carbon dioxide removal technology will be needed to stabilize global temperatures, the U.N. said.

"Climate on track to warm by nearly 3C without aggressive actions, UN report finds"

Quote:

Countries' current emissions pledges to limit climate change would still put the world on track to warm by nearly 3 degrees Celsius this century, according to a United Nations analysis released Monday.

The annual Emissions Gap report, which assesses countries' promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed, finds the world faces between 2.5C (4.5F) and 2.9C (5.2F) of warming above preindustrial levels if governments do not boost climate action.

At 3C of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

"Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise," said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. "The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon."

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21 Nov 2023, 2:19 pm

Physicist Richard Feynman would remark "global warming will only make cold places hotter, not places that are already hot hotter".

Apparently he was wrong.

It hit 137 degrees in Rio De Janeiro Brazil . A 23 year old woman died of cardiac arrest from the heat at a Taylor Swift concert there.

The record breaking heatwave is partially do to El Nino, and partially to climate change.

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22 Nov 2023, 4:37 pm

"Scientist issues warning over ‘gobsmackingly bananas’ chart of concerning global phenomenon: ‘[It’s] no laughing matter’"

Quote:

A graph shared by Hausfather on X tells the story. It charts temperature anomalies for each year by decade, dating to the 1950s. Rises and dips in the lines (color-coded by decade) note temperature anomalies by month. Most years are grouped together, with some exceptions here and there.

September 2023 is a clear outlier on the graph, marked high above all other anomalies.

I sort of like that informal technical term: ‘gobsmackingly bananas’

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23 Nov 2023, 12:46 pm

"Scientists sound alarm over concerning trend observed in the ocean: ‘The sound … will be five times as loud’"

Quote:

According to a study by the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, the underwater world is becoming noisier due to the rise in average temperatures worldwide. The research forecasts that by the end of this century, “the sound of ships … will be five times as loud” in certain ocean regions. This intensification is not solely caused by direct human noise sources but also because sound travels more efficiently through warmer and more acidic seawater.

Luca Possenti, an author of the study, paints a concerning picture, emphasizing that these changes could result in an increase in underwater noise levels by seven decibels in parts of the North Atlantic. This phenomenon is likely to disrupt communication among marine animals, affecting everything from their reproduction to feeding habits.

^{I did not expect this issue!}

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25 Nov 2023, 3:46 pm

"Three positive climate developments"

Quote:

While humanity's efforts to curb planet-warming emissions are nowhere near enough to avoid heating the world to catastrophic levels, tentative improvements show that progress is possible.

The climate trajectory, while still poor, has improved since countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and committed to limiting the global temperature rise to "well below" two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, preferably a safer 1.5C.

And the uptake of renewable energy is providing a rare glimmer of hope.

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05 Dec 2023, 1:40 pm

"The past decade was the hottest on record as climate change ‘surged alarmingly,’ WMO reports"

Quote:

The decade between 2011 and 2020 was the hottest on record for the planet’s land and oceans as the rate of climate change “surged alarmingly,” according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization.

The report, released Tuesday at the COP28 conference in Dubai, found rising concentrations of planet-heating pollution in the atmosphere fueled record land and ocean temperatures and “turbo charged” dramatic glacier loss and sea-level rise during this period.

This year is also expected to be the hottest year, after six straight months of record global temperatures.

Scientists have said this year’s exceptional warmth is the result of the combined effects of El Niño and human-caused climate change, which is driven by planet-warming fossil fuel pollution. A separate analysis released Monday by the Global Carbon Project found that carbon pollution from fossil fuels is on track to set a new record in 2023 – 1.1% higher than 2022 levels.

WMO’s findings on the hottest decade continue a 30-year trend. “Each decade since the 1990s has been warmer than the one before it, and we see no immediate sign of this trend reversing,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “We have to cut greenhouse gas emissions as a top and overriding priority for the planet in order to prevent climate change spiralling out of control.”

"Breach of key global warming threshold 'inevitable' as carbon emissions hit record high"

Quote:

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have risen to yet another record high in 2023, leading scientists to warn that it now appears "inevitable" that global warming will exceed the dangerous threshold of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels.

Humanity released 40.6 billion tons (36.8 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in 2023, representing an increase of 1.1% from 2022, according to a new report by an international team of climate scientists.

When added to the emissions created by land-use changes, including deforestation, a total of 45.1 billion tons (40.9 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide was emitted in 2023. At the current emissions level, the researchers estimate a 50% chance that global warming will exceed 1.5 C consistently in about seven years.

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06 Dec 2023, 12:48 pm

"2023 will officially be the hottest year on record, scientists report"

Quote:

Earth’s temperature was off the charts this year, and scientists just confirmed what much of planet already felt coming: 2023 will officially be the hottest year on record.

The analysis from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service found this year’s global temperature will be more than 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels — close to the 1.5-degree threshold in the Paris climate agreement, and beyond which scientists say humans and ecosystems will struggle to adapt.

Every month since June has been the hottest such month on record, and November piled on. The month was roughly 1.75 degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels, and two days soared beyond 2 degrees, worrying scientists about what this means for the planet in the coming years.

"Climate change is already forcing lizards, insects and other species to evolve – and most can't keep up"

Quote:

Climate change is threatening the survival of plants and animals around the globe as temperatures rise and habitats change.

Some species have been able to meet the challenge with rapid evolutionary adaptation and other changes in behavior or physiology. Dark-colored dragonflies are getting paler in order to reduce the amount of heat they absorb from the sun. Mustard plants are flowering earlier to take advantage of earlier snowmelt. Lizards are becoming more cold-tolerant to handle the extreme variability of our new climate.

However, scientific studies show that climate change is occurring much faster than species are changing.

And, perhaps, some positive news:

"Company attempts to harness ‘forgotten, renewable energy source’ in the ocean — but major questions remain"

Quote:

A plan based on concepts explored in 1881 to generate electricity using differences in ocean temperatures is getting another shot, nearly 150 years later.

And while the process, called ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), has to this point been too expensive to sustain in other attempts over the years, leaders of the venture Global OTEC feel that innovations have advanced enough for another try at the intriguing concept. The effort is geared toward harnessing a “forgotten renewable energy source,” according to a Global OTEC press release.

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06 Dec 2023, 11:04 pm

"Another Record-Hot Month Puts 2023 on Track to Be Hottest Year Ever"

Quote:

“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, we can’t expect different outcomes from those seen this year. The temperature will keep rising and so will the impacts of heat waves and droughts,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “Reaching net zero as soon as possible is an effective way to manage our climate risks.”

Interesting chart. I expect weather to become increasingly "interesting" in the next few years.

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07 Dec 2023, 3:32 pm

"Current carbon dioxide levels last seen 14 million years ago"

Quote:

The last time carbon dioxide in the atmosphere consistently matched today's human-driven levels was 14 million years ago, according to a large new study Thursday that paints a grim picture of where Earth's climate is headed.

Published in the journal Science, the paper covers the period from 66 million years ago until the present, analyzing biological and geochemical signatures from the deep past to reconstruct the historic CO2 record with greater precision than ever before.

"It really brings it home to us that what we are doing is very, very unusual in Earth's history," lead author Baerbel Hoenisch of the Columbia Climate School's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory told AFP.

Among other things, the new analysis finds the last time the air contained 420 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide was between 14-16 million years ago, when there was no ice in Greenland and the ancestors of humans were just transitioning from forests to grasslands.

That is far further back in time than the 3-5 million years that prior analyses have indicated.

Until the late 1700s, atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 280 ppm, meaning humans have already caused an increase of about 50 percent of the greenhouse gas, which traps heat in the atmosphere and has warmed the planet by 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to before industrialization.

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