NOAA: "World on Brink of 4th Mass Coral Reef Bleaching"

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The 90% and 60% Chance global maps at the top of the page show the heat stress level predicted by 90% and 60%, respectively, of the model ensemble members used.  Taking the 90% Chance map as an example, at any given data grid, the individual stress levels predicted by all ensemble members are ranked based on the severity of predicted stress for each future week predicted, from the lowest level to the highest.  The highest ranking 90% of the members are then selected.  The lowest stress level predicted by the highest ranking ensemble members is the heat stress level displayed in the 90% Chance map.  In other words, at least one of the ensemble members in the highest ranking 90% predicted the stress level shown; others may have predicted the same or higher stress, if any.  Model ensemble members of the remaining 10% predicted either the displayed stress level or lower, if any.  At any data grid, the chance for heat stress that is higher than what is indicated in the map is less than 90% and can even be zero.