How many of the world's population is autistic?



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Sora
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 1:55 pm

How many of the whole world's population is estimated as on the spectrum?

I once read a number that said that about under 1% of the population is autistic. But when I hear numbers of 1 in 100/150 or 16/25 in 1000, then it can't be just under 1% of the world's population, can it?

Does anyone know which numbers to trust more than others?



EvilKimEvil
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:02 pm

I've been wondering about the same thing. What are the sources of these statistics? Why is there such a discrepancy? I have also heard that about half of the 1/150 have AS, which would mean that 1/300 people have AS and 1/300 people have another ASD. Speaking of which, if AS is included in this "1/150", is PDD-NOS also included? What about NLD?



Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:02 pm

I remember asking this and someone did the math and said 40,000,000.



AspieDave
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:08 pm

They have the math wrong.... they do that calculation based on how many DIAGNOSED cases there are vs. the total population. Since I doubt even 5% of us are actually diagnosed worldwide they're underestimating the autistic population radically. A VERY small percentage of adults actually get diagnosed, compared to the number who have it. And up until a few years ago, the schools had no clue. If you weren't a non-verbal autitic you were just quirky and possibly 'gifted' if your school still had the money for such a program, most don't anymore. I doubt if we're over 10% of the population in any industrialized country. It's going to be much lower in any other country. There's probably 30+ million in the United States.... and almost none of them diagnosed.


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logitechdog
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:39 pm

they are estimates, coz they trying to guess how many people have not came out of the closet. I’m guessing its just picked out of fin air with a dart board

that 40m sounds allot like how many people got anxiety disorder figures..

Ill use the Introvert figure :/

They are the minority in the majority of the population


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polyrhythmia
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 2:59 pm

AspieDave wrote:
They have the math wrong.... they do that calculation based on how many DIAGNOSED cases there are vs. the total population. Since I doubt even 5% of us are actually diagnosed worldwide they're underestimating the autistic population radically. A VERY small percentage of adults actually get diagnosed, compared to the number who have it. And up until a few years ago, the schools had no clue. If you weren't a non-verbal autitic you were just quirky and possibly 'gifted' if your school still had the money for such a program, most don't anymore. I doubt if we're over 10% of the population in any industrialized country. It's going to be much lower in any other country. There's probably 30+ million in the United States.... and almost none of them diagnosed.


Why might there be fewer autistics in non-industrialized countries? Do they have a higher mortality there? Or is it that autistics have a much lower chance of finding suitable partners to reproduce?



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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:07 pm

polyrhythmia wrote:

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Why might there be fewer autistics in non-industrialized countries? Do they have a higher mortality there? Or is it that autistics have a much lower chance of finding suitable partners to reproduce?


Both, imho actually. For one thing, someone showing autistic traits and limited to marrying someone from the same village, or the next village over, or a farm within 20 miles... etc. is at a HUGE disadvantage compared to one in say, America who can train on computers, get a job at Microsoft and be surrounded by hundreds of other Aspies in the same age range.... Or go to a university and have the same thing happen.

I also think they don't survive as well in small, isolated communities where survival may depend on a social net they can't interact with well.


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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:08 pm

One problem with determining the prevalence of autism is that it may vary from one location to another. It's hard to estimate for the world's population without knowing the reasons for the variance.

Autism prevalence in US for children born in 1994 according to a CDC study

US - 1 in 150
Alabama - 1 in 303*
New Jersey - 1 in 94


The CDC looked at 12 other states. In those states it varied from 1 in 132 to 1 in 192 and the difference in those states wasn't statistically significant. The difference in prevalence in New Jersey was statistically significant. *They had trouble getting educational records in some states including Alabama so that may explain the low prevalence in Alabama.

The CDC study looked at ASDs which includes "autistic disorder, pervasive developmental disorder - not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS, including atypical autism), and Asperger syndrome."

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel ... 070208.htm

A recent study concluded that thimerosal doesn't cause autism because the prevalence of autism increased after it was removed. The study stated that the prevalence of autism increased by 333% from 1993 to 2003. http://www.wrongplanet.net/postt53320.html If that study was correct (which I doubt), then ASD prevalence would now be 1 in 45.



Last edited by zendell on Fri Jan 18, 2008 8:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Age1600
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:11 pm

zendell wrote:
The problem with determining the prevalence of autism is that it varies widely from one location to another. It's hard to estimate for the world's population without knowing the reasons for the variance.

Autism prevalence in US for children born in 1994 according to a CDC study

US - 1 in 150
Alabama - 1 in 303
New Jersey - 1 in 94


The CDC study looked at ASDs which includes "autistic disorder, pervasive developmental disorder - not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS, including atypical autism), and Asperger syndrome."

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel ... 070208.htm

A recent study concluded that thimerosal doesn't cause autism because the prevalence of autism increased after it was removed. The study stated that the prevalence of autism increased by 333% from 1993 to 2003. http://www.wrongplanet.net/postt53320.html If that study was correct (which I doubt), then ASD prevalence would now be 1 in 45.


Yea in Jersey, there are sooo many auties and aspies, its crazy, the autism carnival i help run in april we had over 800ppl come just to that hospital, and i know of like many other places that have carnivals as well, and have that many or even more, it really is insane.


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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:13 pm

However, if one's potential partners are limited to the people in one's own village, and perhaps another village or two nearby, then a) that would tend to limit other's choices as well, indicating that one has a chance, even if one is considered suboptimal; and b) such a limited genetic base would tend to conserve any mutations - including those leading to ASD. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see a sort of inverted bell curve, where the two upper ends of ASD incidence are in pre-industrialized regions (where the above conditions apply) and highly-industrialized nations (in which AS, at least, becomes a potentially positive trait), and the middle, representing those nations just entering industrialization, showing a depressed incidence of ASD (or, possibly, simply of ASD diagnosis - in such a society, one with an ASD would struggle to hide all traces of it...).


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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:28 pm

Spokane_Girl wrote:
I remember asking this and someone did the math and said 40,000,000.


I think I was the one who did it.


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zendell
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:29 pm

Age1600 wrote:
zendell wrote:
The problem with determining the prevalence of autism is that it varies widely from one location to another. It's hard to estimate for the world's population without knowing the reasons for the variance.

Autism prevalence in US for children born in 1994 according to a CDC study

US - 1 in 150
Alabama - 1 in 303
New Jersey - 1 in 94


The CDC study looked at ASDs which includes "autistic disorder, pervasive developmental disorder - not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS, including atypical autism), and Asperger syndrome."

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel ... 070208.htm

A recent study concluded that thimerosal doesn't cause autism because the prevalence of autism increased after it was removed. The study stated that the prevalence of autism increased by 333% from 1993 to 2003. http://www.wrongplanet.net/postt53320.html If that study was correct (which I doubt), then ASD prevalence would now be 1 in 45.


Yea in Jersey, there are sooo many auties and aspies, its crazy, the autism carnival i help run in april we had over 800ppl come just to that hospital, and i know of like many other places that have carnivals as well, and have that many or even more, it really is insane.


Why do you think children born in New Jersey are much more likely to be autistic?

Someone mentioned autism prevalence is higher in industrialize countries. It seems to be higher in industrialized states in the US also since New Jersey is more industrialized than Alabama.



Age1600
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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:40 pm

zendell wrote:
Age1600 wrote:
zendell wrote:
The problem with determining the prevalence of autism is that it varies widely from one location to another. It's hard to estimate for the world's population without knowing the reasons for the variance.

Autism prevalence in US for children born in 1994 according to a CDC study

US - 1 in 150
Alabama - 1 in 303
New Jersey - 1 in 94


The CDC study looked at ASDs which includes "autistic disorder, pervasive developmental disorder - not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS, including atypical autism), and Asperger syndrome."

http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel ... 070208.htm

A recent study concluded that thimerosal doesn't cause autism because the prevalence of autism increased after it was removed. The study stated that the prevalence of autism increased by 333% from 1993 to 2003. http://www.wrongplanet.net/postt53320.html If that study was correct (which I doubt), then ASD prevalence would now be 1 in 45.


Yea in Jersey, there are sooo many auties and aspies, its crazy, the autism carnival i help run in april we had over 800ppl come just to that hospital, and i know of like many other places that have carnivals as well, and have that many or even more, it really is insane.


Why do you think children born in New Jersey are much more likely to be autistic?

Someone mentioned autism prevalence is higher in industrialize countries. It seems to be higher in industrialized states in the US also since New Jersey is more industrialized than Alabama.


I really dont know, i wasn't born here, i was born in columbia, south america, but i know that a lot of children born in jersey have a higher rate of becoming autistic, and one of the big factors i think is the environment. I dont know i hear a lot of rumors about it. Its a very good question, but I seriously dont know the true answer, sorry.


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Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:45 pm

Of course the prevalence statistics are going to be higher for places that have more money, are more industrialized. There is a greater likelihood someone is going to be diagnosed rather than fly under the radar.

In the US, Asperger's only became a diagnosis in 1994, so there is still some lag time, many professionals who don't know too much about the autistic spectrum, or think they do and only have a limited understanding (Usually these are the people who would say, "You can't be autistic beause ALL autistics...blah blah blah."

Also, re the original question, 1/100 is 1%, and the figures usually given are about 1/150, 1/166, somewhere in this neighborhood. 1/150 is (*gets out calculator*) about 0.67% of the population. The exact figures don't really matter anyway, especially, as noted, that many are not diagnosed for various reasons.


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Fri Jan 18, 2008 4:07 pm

In the UK the official estimate is 1% (nearly 600.000). These are all conservative estimates. Among adults, given that estimates start in the 90s, the great majority of autistic people eludes official statistics.

"The indication from recent studies is that the figures cannot be precisely fixed, but it appears that a prevalence rate of around 1 in 100 is a best estimate of the prevalence in children. No prevalence studies have ever been carried out on adults." British official sources.



Last edited by paolo on Fri Jan 18, 2008 4:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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