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kxmode
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21 Mar 2010, 8:25 am

I was always under the impression that money I pay into SSI is something I get later in life. But it turns out what I'm actually paying into is a massive bank account that is then immediately redistributed out to the others.

"U.S. Social Security is a social insurance program funded through dedicated payroll taxes called Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA). Tax deposits are formally entrusted to the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund, the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, or the Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sec ... _States%29

versus

"Some of the most complex (and potentially most lucrative) forms of embezzlement involve Ponzi-like financial schemes where high returns to early investors are paid out of funds received from later investors duped into believing they are themselves receiving entry into a high return investment scheme."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embezzlement

Other than being legal, how is social security different from a Ponzi-like embezzlement scheme?


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Orwell
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21 Mar 2010, 8:47 am

kxmode wrote:
Other than being legal, how is social security different from a Ponzi-like embezzlement scheme?

It isn't. From the start, the mathematics was quite plain that social security must fail.


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faberman
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21 Mar 2010, 8:48 am

do you think that social security is "high return investment scheme" ?



ruveyn
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21 Mar 2010, 8:49 am

It is a Ponzi Scheme.

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21 Mar 2010, 9:05 am

No, it isn't a Ponzi scheme.

No-one ever claimed that this was a "high return investment scheme," or that this was an investment scheme at all.

And, it was never "quite plain that social security must fail," until George Bush came along.

Social security is a transfer from people who are employed (and from employers) to people who have either retired or become disabled.

In order to collect, you need to have put in a minimum amount over a minimum number of years. The more you put in, the bigger the payout.

There was a trust fund established to cover the temporary bulge in payouts anticipated for retiring baby boomers. However, President Bush spent it all. That part of the arithmetic makes it "quite plain that social security must fail", in order to bring satisfaction to right wing idiots.

Without President Bush, there would have been no impending problem.

Now, we'll just have to increase misery temporarily during the baby boom retirement years--most likely by raising taxes, and possibly by reducing benefits. It seems only fair, since George Bush hosted an orgy of wreckless spending combined with irrational tax cuts. We'll have to pay the piper eventually.

Once the baby boomers have become extinct, the situation will right itself in terms of a balance between workers and retirees.



kxmode
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21 Mar 2010, 9:19 am

faberman wrote:
do you think that social security is "high return investment scheme" ?


If the money is put in over the course of my working lifetime isn't there when it's time to collect I would consider SSI a "high return" ponzi-scheme.


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21 Mar 2010, 9:29 am

If it isn't there, then how do you consider it "high return?"



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21 Mar 2010, 9:35 am

pandabear wrote:
No, it isn't a Ponzi scheme.

It doesn't have to be since people are required by law to participate. If it was a good deal, why would we need such a law?


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Sand
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21 Mar 2010, 9:47 am

NobelCynic wrote:
pandabear wrote:
No, it isn't a Ponzi scheme.

It doesn't have to be since people are required by law to participate. If it was a good deal, why would we need such a law?


Like any insurance setup maximum participation makes it work. If it was voluntary it wouldn't work as insurance.



kxmode
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21 Mar 2010, 9:48 am

pandabear wrote:
If it isn't there, then how do you consider it "high return?"


I put high return in quotes. You clearly missed that part. I'm playing off your words.


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21 Mar 2010, 1:19 pm

When you pay to Social Security, the government just simply changes the number to your bank account to account for the payment. When it comes to pay you, they increase that number. They don't guard your pile of money. It simply disappears when you pay in and re-appears when you are paid.



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21 Mar 2010, 2:01 pm

pandabear wrote:
There was a trust fund established to cover the temporary bulge in payouts anticipated for retiring baby boomers. However, President Bush spent it all. That part of the arithmetic makes it "quite plain that social security must fail", in order to bring satisfaction to right wing idiots.

Without President Bush, there would have been no impending problem.

Now, we'll just have to increase misery temporarily during the baby boom retirement years--most likely by raising taxes, and possibly by reducing benefits. It seems only fair, since George Bush hosted an orgy of wreckless spending combined with irrational tax cuts. We'll have to pay the piper eventually.


I'd argue this has been going on since Reagan, and has only gotten progressively worse in the last decade or so.



ruveyn
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21 Mar 2010, 2:23 pm

Sand wrote:

Like any insurance setup maximum participation makes it work. If it was voluntary it wouldn't work as insurance.


My life insurance is voluntary and it works just fine.

ruveyn



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21 Mar 2010, 2:52 pm

pandabear wrote:
No, it isn't a Ponzi scheme.

The basic structure is somewhat similar.

Quote:
And, it was never "quite plain that social security must fail," until George Bush came along.

I'm sorry Panda, but you really can't argue with mathematics. The initial social security recipients collected large amounts of money after paying in next to nothing. Since Social Security is only funded by what we pay into it (less the amount purloined for other budgetary expenses) this necessarily means that people later on must receive less than what they paid in, even before you account for inflation.

Quote:
Without President Bush, there would have been no impending problem.

This is not true. Bush was a lousy President and he certainly worsened the situation, but he is not the sole cause of every problem.


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21 Mar 2010, 4:13 pm

Orwell wrote:
I'm sorry Panda, but you really can't argue with mathematics. The initial social security recipients collected large amounts of money after paying in next to nothing. Since Social Security is only funded by what we pay into it (less the amount purloined for other budgetary expenses) this necessarily means that people later on must receive less than what they paid in, even before you account for inflation.


The first social security recipients did indeed receive a bonanza after paying next to nothing--that was back when social security started in the 1930s. Now, people have to have paid into it for at least 10 years in order to get anything. I don't think that the pensions were very large at that point--it was relatively recently that social security checks were pegged to keep up with inflation, in order to please retired voters.

A lot of people will probably die before they reach a break-even point with social security--I don't know what that break-even point is.



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22 Mar 2010, 6:56 pm

Orwell wrote:
pandabear wrote:
No, it isn't a Ponzi scheme.

The basic structure is somewhat similar.


Yeah besides the fact that social security has been around since 1935 and Ponzi escheme lasted less than one year. ( http://web.archive.org/web/20041001-200 ... ponzi.html ) (text from social security online). The "no-Ponzi Game" condition in economics is that government fulfill its intertemporal budget constraint. If it does the fiscal policy is called "sustaintable". There are statitistical tests to check that but I´ve never seen nothing applied to social security. Most papers studying social security uses "overlapping generation models" and I don´t understand how they work. :oops: (shy)